The 2015 NAB Challenge began last Thursday and the opening game of Hawthorn V. Collingwood had punters licking their lips. Surely Hawthorn at $1.60 is ridiculous value even if several of their best players are out of the side.
“The Hawks just have so much depth and the Pies are no good,” came the cries from punters all around the country before the Hawks had been backed into $1.30.
And how did that turn out for everyone who had their hard-earned cash on the Hawks?
The Pies won by 44 points and the Hawks never looked a chance.
Well done, punters.
Look, we aren’t saying it’s a big deal to be completely wrong betting on one game. It certainly isn’t the first time that will happen betting on the AFL this year.
And, heck, we would be more forgiving if this had happened in the regular season. So you got it wrong and the Pies put on a rare freak performance to beat one of the best sides in the competition. So what?
The point we are trying to make is…
DO NOT bet on the NAB Challenge.
We know it’s hard to wait until the regular season. After all, you have already spent months waiting with your punting bankroll on the roller coaster of the horse racing season.
But you’ve already waited this long, so just consider waiting a few more weeks until the real footy starts.
There are just too many reasons to NOT bet on the NAB Challenge.
Firstly, there is just nothing on the line.
That’s why teams like Hawthorn rest their big-name players. It’s a chance for the Hawks to try out some of their second teir players who are outside the best 25 or so players.
More importantly, teams use the NAB Challenge to test the waters with new strategies, different structures, trying players in different positions, etc.
And with the structures of AFL teams being like perfectly formed Jenga towers, take one or two out and everything can and will likely collapse into a pile a rubble.
The Hawks / Pies result is just one example of many over the first weekend. Do you think the Saints will get that close to beating the Lions in the regular season? What about the Bulldogs beating the Tigers? Kangaroos should surely beat the Crows in the regular season?
Look, there will be situations where it's hard to not want to bet on the NAB Challenge. There might even be some solid reasoning behind what you think is a great +EV spot, but at the end of the day we think a blanket rule on not betting on something so volitile is important.
So our point stands: Smart punters should be using the NAB Challenge as a research tool for the regular season and NOT be wasting their bankroll on such speculative markets.
That’s why you won’t be finding any NAB Challenge betting tips here at Before You Bet and instead need to be patient and keep your eyes on our AFL betting tips page for an upcoming 2015 AFL season betting preview and full weekly tips throughout the year!
