The Melbourne Cup Carnival kicks off with a massive day of racing at Flemington for 2015 Derby Day. We have previews of all four Group 1 races, and horse racing tips for the entire card thanks to Tim's Tips!
Race 1 - Carbine Club Stakes 1600m
Top Pick: Bassett
Race 2 - Mumm Wakeful Stakes 2000m
Top Pick: Dawnie Perfect
Roughie: Dawn Of Hope
Race 3 - Guvera Stakes 1400m
Top Pick: Disposition
Roughie: Red Excitement
Race 4 - Coolmore Stud Stakes 1200m - Group 1
Completely expecting Exosphere to blow this field away and justify his $1.50 quote. He's been utterly dominant this prep and it was his latest win that had me most impressed. Stays at the 1200m and given he is right up there with Chautauqua in the market for the Darley Classic, it's safe to assume he'd account for this lot pretty comfortably.
Behind him it will be an interesting battle for the minor placings. It's hard to get a gauge of how the race will be run over the straight 6 furlongs and which horse will handle it best. READY FOR VICTORY finished off well behind Kinglike three starts ago over this straight course, and he improved nicely with the blinkers on for the first time last start. Expecting him to run well back to 1200m. Singaporean sprinter SUPER ONE was surprisingly defeated at his first run in Australia but I really do think he will improve tremendously from that run, and he should be one of he early leaders. KEEN ARRAY should be undefeated this prep and continued his impressive form with a win in the Blue Sapphire, while MOGADOR finished off well to run 2nd in that race and has strong claims to make it a Godolphin quinella. HELLBENT makes the journey down from Sydney after receiving a poor ride from Tye Angland last start which gave him no hope, and the horse that beat him home in that race, COUNTERATTACK, should go well ridden cold with the blinkers on.
1 - EXOSPHERE
2 - MOGADOR
3 - KEEN ARRAY
4 - COUNTERATTACK
Race 5 - Lexus Stakes 2500m
Top Pick: Ruling Dynasty
Race 6 - Longines Mackinnon Stakes 2000m - Group 1
Good race and there should be a decent tempo out front with Ecuador nailed on to lead the field. I think we can expect to see Rising Romance push on from her wide gate and Fawkner and Stratum Star may follow her across, so the initial stages of the race will be key. I think on the back of Pornichet's improvement in the Cox Plate due to a cold ride we may see him adopt the same tactics and take a position further back. There's plenty of runners in with a chance in this incredibly open race so I'll stick to mentioning those that make the most appeal to me.
MAGIC HURRICANE comes up favourite for the race at $5.50 but there is a couple of key factors that turn me off. Firstly the drop back to 2000m following his dominant win over 2400m in the Metrop is concerning, and even more so is James McDonald's choice to ride stablemate Contributer. HAPPY TRAILS has been unlucky time and again this prep and he had absolutely no chance in the Cox Plate from where he was. Drawn very well here and gets a good run. 2000m at Flemington suits him. FLAMINGO STAR went straight in the blackbook last start after he stormed home despite having no luck in the Toorak. Up to WFA here but his last run caught the eye and I've been keeping tabs on him for a few months now. STRATUM STAR won again last start in a Group 3 over 2000m but this is another big step up and his wide barrier hurts. RISING ROMANCE was apparently in season last start (basically an excuse for her poor run) and has the blinkers on first time here. If she can slot across from out wide she is a chance.
1 - HAPPY TRAILS
2 - FLAMINGO STAR
3 - RISING ROMANCE
4 - MAGIC HURRICANE
Race 7 - AAMI Victoria Derby 2500m - Group 1
Here's a stat - only one favourite for the VRC Derby has won in the last 10 years and that was Efficient all the way back in 2006. I think this could be run at a decent tempo with the size of the field and the likes of Jadeer, Ayers Rock and Shards all capable of leading. I'm pretty keen on one here and I'll stick to mentioning just the main hopes in the race.
LIZARD ISLAND hasn't done much wrong and he's bumped into Press Statement and Sacred Eye at his last two starts. He gets a great run from the barrier and provided he handles the 2500m trip there's no reason to say he can't go close here. KIA ORA KOUTOU is the one I'm excited to see run and I think he's the winner here. His form in WA has been nothing short of outstanding and he he proved his staying ability over 2200m last start when comfortably beating the older horses. Inside draw means he can settle where he wants, and he's back to his own age group. The big Flemington track helps and I love his chances here at $8. TARZINO is the one that went in everyone's blackbooks last start after his run to finish 3rd in the Moonee Valley Vase. I think he is perfectly suited to win this but at $2.50 I'd rather side with something at better value, especially given the record of favourites in this race. Barrier 10 could have him stuck wide too. GET THE PICTURE is another huge chance after finishing 4th to Sacred Eye last start. He has been crying out for extra ground and the 2500m looks to suit him better than most. Drawn perfectly in barrier 5 and Damien Oliver rides. ETYMOLOGY is another that came out of the Sacred Eye race, finishing 3rd, and he ran on pretty impressively. Tricky barrier but he hit the line hard last start and the big track will help him.
1 - KIA ORA KOUTOU
2 - GET THE PICTURE
3 - TARZINO
4 - ETYMOLOGY
Race 8 - Myer Classic 1600m - Group 1
This is the race I'm most looking forward to on the day and I think it sparks the most interest due to the make up of those in the race. We've got a proper spread in the weights and we've got proven mares, improving mares and a very talented filly at the bottom of the weights. Tempo in the race looks reasonable. Miss Rose De Lago will likely take up her spot in the lead and Solicit will be the one to join her.
ROYAL DESCENT finished 20 lengths last in the Caulfield Cup but she ran about 4000m so it was a complete forgive run. She's the class horse in the field, and she's never missed a place from 9 runs at the mile. Blinkers go on for the first time and she draws beautifully this time. Expecting her to run a place if not win. MISS ROSE DE LAGO smoked them last start in a Group 3 over 1600m. Comes into this 3rd up and if she gets it easy out front she can definitely win. LA PASSE is underrated - she's won 6 from 13 starts, won her last two at Group 2 level, won 2 from 3 at the track and draws well in 3. Drops 0.5kg from her last start win and at $19 she's value once again. AMICUS is over the odds too - she also gets blinkers first time and steps up to the mile where she won the Thousand Guineas as a 3YO. She won her first two starts this prep before dropping off in form at her last two starts. She didn't have any luck last start and she's more than capable of winning this at $34. SLIGHTLY SWEET finished off well behind La Passe last start and is flying under the radar. STAY WITH ME won the Thousand Guineas in dominant fashion and comes into this with only 49kg! From all reports she has improved even further and is about to peak. The wide gate makes it a bit trickier for her, but with 7.5kg to the next horse she certainly has the weight to win this! Is she ready for a test against these seasoned Group 1 mares though?
1 - ROYAL DESCENT
2 - LA PASSE
3 - STAY WITH ME
4 - AMICUS
Race 9 - tab.com.au Stakes 1200m
Top Pick: Delectation
$100,000 Derby Day Tournament at TopBetta this Saturday!
TopBetta are hosting the biggest tournament in their history with the $100,000 Derby Day Tournament this Saturday. As the name suggests, they are guaranteeing a prize pool of $100,000 for the tournament with an estimated $60,000 for the eventual champion!
Racing tournaments see punters given a start bank of tournament dollars, and you compete against other punters by betting the tournament dollars on each race. Whoever can accumulate the most winnings during the day with their tournament dollars will scoop the lion's share of the prize pool!
Buy-in directly for $1,100 or qualify through the many Jackpot satellite tournaments which start from as low as $23!
Saturday Power Prices: Make sure to stay tuned to Sportsbet from 10am-11am on Saturday as there will be powered up boosted fixed odds on EVERY HORSE in EVERY RACE at Flemington for Derby Day!
Victoria Derby Cash Back: You can't get much better value than this Victoria Derby special - place a fixed odds bet up to $50 and if your horse finishes 1st, 2nd, 3rd or 4th, get CASH BACK (not a bonus bet!)
Metro Multi Special: Place a 3+ leg racing multi using fixed odds win markets at Flemington, Rosehill, Ascot and Morphetville this Saturday and if one leg fails, get a matched bonus bet equal to your stake up to $50!
Last 4 Races Derby Day Special: One of our favourite Spring Carnival promotions returns for the 2015 Derby Day - place a fixed odds win bet up to $50 on any of the last 4 races and if your selection finishes 2nd or 3rd, get your stake back as a bonus bet!
First Half of Field: Place a fixed odds win bet up to $25 on the first four races at Flemington on Derby Day and if your horse doesn't win, but finishes in the first half of the field, get your money back!
In-Place First Half: Just like the above, except you will get your money back up to $25 if your In-Play win bet doesn't win, but finishes in the first half of the field!
Trifecta Insurance: This is a fun one from William Hill - place a Trifecta bet on the first four races on Derby Day at Flemington and if 2 out of your 3 selections finish in the top 3, get your money back equal to your stake up to $50!
Quaddie Insurance: Place a Derby Day quaddie up to $50 and if your last leg loses (final race of the day), get your stake back as cash!
Derby Day Bonus Offer: Place a Fixed Odds win bet on any of the four Group 1 races at Flemington this Saturday, and if your horse finishes 1st, 2nd or 3rd, you'll receive a bonus bet refund up to $100! That's right, if you back the winner, you'll still get a bonus bet! What a fantastic promotion!
Derby Day 30% Boost: Place a Bookies Best bet on any race at Flemington this Saturday and you'll receive a 30% boost on your winnings compared to the best price offered by rival best tote products. Maximum stake $50.
Price Boost: Get enhanced odds of $2.50 for Exosphere in the Coolmore Stakes for a max bet of $20. Click on Racing Specials - Flemington Special to access the market.
50% Extra: Ladbrokes are offering you 50% extra on your first winning fixed odds bet on Races 1-5 at Flemington this Saturday. Only the first bet in each race is eligible for the bonus. Max bet $50. The bonus will only be awarded out once per customer, per day.
Best Tote or SP + 20%: Get a boosted price of Best Tote or Starting Price + 20% on every race at Flemington on Derby Day this Saturday! Max bet $50.
Place a win bet on Race 2, 3, 4 or 5 at Flemington on Saturday and if your horses finishes 2nd or 3rd, you'll receive a bonus bet matching your stake up to $100.
VRC Derby Cash Back Offer: Place a Fixed Odds bet on the VRC Derby this Saturday and if your horse finishes 2nd or 3rd, you'll receive cash back matching your stake up to $50.
Boosted Odds: Get boosted odds on a selected horse every Saturday during the Spring Carnival. Available between 10am - 12pm on Saturday for a maximum bet of $50.
Lexus Stakes Cash Back Offer: Place a Fixed Odds win bet on the Lexus Stakes, Race 5 at Flemington on Saturday, and if your horse finishes 2nd or 3rd, you'll receive cash back up to $50!
Lay of the Week: Get boosted odds of $5.50 for Stay With Me in Race 8 at Flemington this Saturday. Max bet $50.
Derby Day Money Back Offer: Place a Fixed Odds win bet on any of the first four races at Flemington this Saturday, and if your horse finishes 2nd or 3rd, you'll receive cash back up to $25 per race!
Trifecta Insurance: Place a Trifecta bet at Flemington on Saturday and if two out of the three horses finish in the top three and your trifecta loses, you'll receive money back up to $50.
Quaddie Insurance: Place your first Quaddie bet at Flemington on Saturday and if the last leg (final race) loses get your stake back as cash up to $50.
Mackinnon Stakes Cash Back Offer: Place a Fixed Odds bet on the Mackinnon Stakes, Race 6 at Flemington on Saturday, and if your horse finishes 2nd or 3rd, you'll receive cash back up to $50!
Lay of the Week: Get boosted odds of $5.50 for Ambience in Race 2 at Flemington this Saturday. Max bet $50.
Make sure to read full terms and conditions of any betting promotion before placing any bets.
_ _ _
Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
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