2015 Derby Day Preview & Betting Tips

October 29th 2015, 10:34am, By: tim_tips

The Melbourne Cup Carnival kicks off with a massive day of racing at Flemington for 2015  Derby Day. We have previews of all four Group 1 races, and horse racing tips for the entire card thanks to Tim's Tips!

2015 Derby Day - Flemington

Race 1 - Carbine Club Stakes 1600m

Top Pick: Bassett
Roughie: Mahuta

Race 2 - Mumm Wakeful Stakes 2000m

Top Pick: Dawnie Perfect
Roughie: Dawn Of Hope

Race 3 - Guvera Stakes 1400m

Top Pick: Disposition
Roughie: Red Excitement

Race 4 - Coolmore Stud Stakes 1200m - Group 1

Completely expecting Exosphere to blow this field away and justify his $1.50 quote. He's been utterly dominant this prep and it was his latest win that had me most impressed. Stays at the 1200m and given he is right up there with Chautauqua in the market for the Darley Classic, it's safe to assume he'd account for this lot pretty comfortably. 

Behind him it will be an interesting battle for the minor placings. It's hard to get a gauge of how the race will be run over the straight 6 furlongs and which horse will handle it best. READY FOR VICTORY finished off well behind Kinglike three starts ago over this straight course, and he improved nicely with the blinkers on for the first time last start. Expecting him to run well back to 1200m. Singaporean sprinter SUPER ONE was surprisingly defeated at his first run in Australia but I really do think he will improve tremendously from that run, and he should be one of he early leaders. KEEN ARRAY should be undefeated this prep and continued his impressive form with a win in the Blue Sapphire, while MOGADOR finished off well to run 2nd in that race and has strong claims to make it a Godolphin quinella. HELLBENT makes the journey down from Sydney after receiving a poor ride from Tye Angland last start which gave him no hope, and the horse that beat him home in that race, COUNTERATTACK, should go well ridden cold with the blinkers on.

1 - EXOSPHERE
2 - MOGADOR
3 - KEEN ARRAY
4 - COUNTERATTACK

Race 5 - Lexus Stakes 2500m

Top Pick: Ruling Dynasty
Roughie: Elhaame

Race 6 - Longines Mackinnon Stakes 2000m - Group 1

Good race and there should be a decent tempo out front with Ecuador nailed on to lead the field. I think we can expect to see Rising Romance push on from her wide gate and Fawkner and Stratum Star may follow her across, so the initial stages of the race will be key. I think on the back of Pornichet's improvement in the Cox Plate due to a cold ride we may see him adopt the same tactics and take a position further back. There's plenty of runners in with a chance in this incredibly open race so I'll stick to mentioning those that make the most appeal to me.

MAGIC HURRICANE comes up favourite for the race at $5.50 but there is a couple of key factors that turn me off. Firstly the drop back to 2000m following his dominant win over 2400m in the Metrop is concerning, and even more so is James McDonald's choice to ride stablemate Contributer. HAPPY TRAILS has been unlucky time and again this prep and he had absolutely no chance in the Cox Plate from where he was. Drawn very well here and gets a good run. 2000m at Flemington suits him. FLAMINGO STAR went straight in the blackbook last start after he stormed home despite having no luck in the Toorak. Up to WFA here but his last run caught the eye and I've been keeping tabs on him for a few months now. STRATUM STAR won again last start in a Group 3 over 2000m but this is another big step up and his wide barrier hurts. RISING ROMANCE was apparently in season last start (basically an excuse for her poor run) and has the blinkers on first time here. If she can slot across from out wide she is a chance.

1 - HAPPY TRAILS
2 - FLAMINGO STAR
3 - RISING ROMANCE
4 - MAGIC HURRICANE

Race 7 - AAMI Victoria Derby 2500m - Group 1

Here's a stat - only one favourite for the VRC Derby has won in the last 10 years and that was Efficient all the way back in 2006. I think this could be run at a decent tempo with the size of the field and the likes of Jadeer, Ayers Rock and Shards all capable of leading. I'm pretty keen on one here and I'll stick to mentioning just the main hopes in the race.

LIZARD ISLAND hasn't done much wrong and he's bumped into Press Statement and Sacred Eye at his last two starts. He gets a great run from the barrier and provided he handles the 2500m trip there's no reason to say he can't go close here. KIA ORA KOUTOU is the one I'm excited to see run and I think he's the winner here. His form in WA has been nothing short of outstanding and he he proved his staying ability over 2200m last start when comfortably beating the older horses. Inside draw means he can settle where he wants, and he's back to his own age group. The big Flemington track helps and I love his chances here at $8. TARZINO is the one that went in everyone's blackbooks last start after his run to finish 3rd in the Moonee Valley Vase. I think he is perfectly suited to win this but at $2.50 I'd rather side with something at better value, especially given the record of favourites in this race. Barrier 10 could have him stuck wide too. GET THE PICTURE is another huge chance after finishing 4th to Sacred Eye last start. He has been crying out for extra ground and the 2500m looks to suit him better than most. Drawn perfectly in barrier 5 and Damien Oliver rides. ETYMOLOGY is another that came out of the Sacred Eye race, finishing 3rd, and he ran on pretty impressively. Tricky barrier but he hit the line hard last start and the big track will help him. 

1 - KIA ORA KOUTOU
2 - GET THE PICTURE
3 - TARZINO
4 - ETYMOLOGY

Race 8 - Myer Classic 1600m - Group 1

This is the race I'm most looking forward to on the day and I think it sparks the most interest due to the make up of those in the race. We've got a proper spread in the weights and we've got proven mares, improving mares and a very talented filly at the bottom of the weights. Tempo in the race looks reasonable. Miss Rose De Lago will likely take up her spot in the lead and Solicit will be the one to join her. 

ROYAL DESCENT finished 20 lengths last in the Caulfield Cup but she ran about 4000m so it was a complete forgive run. She's the class horse in the field, and she's never missed a place from 9 runs at the mile. Blinkers go on for the first time and she draws beautifully this time. Expecting her to run a place if not win. MISS ROSE DE LAGO smoked them last start in a Group 3 over 1600m. Comes into this 3rd up and if she gets it easy out front she can definitely win. LA PASSE is underrated - she's won 6 from 13 starts, won her last two at Group 2 level, won 2 from 3 at the track and draws well in 3. Drops 0.5kg from her last start win and at $19 she's value once again. AMICUS is over the odds too - she also gets blinkers first time and steps up to the mile where she won the Thousand Guineas as a 3YO. She won her first two starts this prep before dropping off in form at her last two starts. She didn't have any luck last start and she's more than capable of winning this at $34. SLIGHTLY SWEET finished off well behind La Passe last start and is flying under the radar. STAY WITH ME won the Thousand Guineas in dominant fashion and comes into this with only 49kg! From all reports she has improved even further and is about to peak. The wide gate makes it a bit trickier for her, but with 7.5kg to the next horse she certainly has the weight to win this! Is she ready for a test against these seasoned Group 1 mares though?

1 - ROYAL DESCENT
2 - LA PASSE
3 - STAY WITH ME
4 - AMICUS

Race 9 - tab.com.au Stakes 1200m

Top Pick: Delectation
Roughie: Knoydart

 

Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly.  Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!

 

 

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