Round 7 of the 2014 AFL season was one of our biggest betting weeks. We picked three of four “best bets” at average odds of $2.30. Hopefully we can do the same or even better this week! One bit of bad news for footy fans is that we have arrived at the dreaded bye rounds. It’s going to be a tough three weeks with so little AFL action on over the weekend, but we will do our best to pull through! Make sure to read on and check out Before You Bet’s 2014 AFL Round 8 preview, betting tips and tipping advice!
2014 AFL Round 8 Preview
The first game of the first bye round is a big one – Sydney Swans Vs. Hawthorn Hawks on a Friday night. The game is up in Sydney, which is just about the only advantage that the Swans seem to have. Yes the Hawks have some key outs including Sam Mitchell, but their team has so much depth that it won’t make a huge difference. It is looking more and more likely that Kurt Tippet and Lance Franklin will both play together on Friday night and if it gels like the Swans fans hope then sure, the Swans are in with a chance. It’s more likely, however, that this will take a while to sort itself out. The bottom line is that the Hawks are too good, they have a great record against the Swans, in Melbourne and in Sydney and look at this stat - Hawks average 128 points a game this year, the Swans average 86. The Swans should be competitive enough, but the Hawks will get the four points.
Next on the agenda for Round 8 is Fremantle Dockers Vs. Port Adelaide Power. This is going to be one of the best games of the week and really show us where both teams are at. At the start of the year this would have been pencilled in as a Dockers victory, but the Power have been so good this year it’s harder to pick. The Dockers have won the last five against the Power, but with this game being at Adelaide Oval and the Power being so strong of late, it’s hard to pick. There is no doubt that the Dockers will know how to stop the Power from scoring, even if Jay Schultz is in such fine form, so the question will be whether or not the Dockers themselves can score enough. The Power certainly deserve to be favourites at home with their current form, but it’s too tough to call. Will be watching with interest.
The Brisbane Lions Vs. Essendon Bombers game seems a little more cut and dry then the first two games of Round 8. Straight up, the Bombers should win. However, it’s in Brisbane and the Lions will find some confidence in the fact they upset the Bombers last year with a ten point victory. Brisbane also get Jonathan Brown and Pearce Hanley back this week which will boost the confidence of the younger players. The line is around 25 points, but we are leaning towards the Bombers 1-39.
The Melbourne Demons Vs. Western Bulldogs game on Saturday night has been talked about all week and not because it’s going to be a massive, but more because of the ‘Field of Women’ cause which will see 15,000 people form the shape of a ‘pink lady’ to represent all the people who will be diagnosed with breast cancer this year. It’s a great cause and a good reason to get down to the MCG and even more reason is that this should be a very competitive game. The Bulldogs will be hoping for a win, but won’t take a very confident Demons lightly. The Demons win in Adelaide last week was absolutely massive for the club and will be them huge confidence going into this game. One problem will be the Demons ability to score. The Dogs certainly aren’t the best defensive team, but they have had an average of 11 more inside 50’s than Melbourne this year. The Dogs are also ranked 5th in the competition for clearances and the Demons are ranked last. Let’s not go overboard overrating the Demons because of their Adelaide victory. The Bulldogs should come away with the victory against a Demons who will be trying very hard.
Sunday’s lone game is easily the least enticing of the week – West Coast Eagles Vs. GWS Giants. The Eagles may be underperforming this year, but they will still be too strong for the Giants. Leaning towards the Giants being able to cover the almost ten-goal line, but going to stay away.
Monday’s game – St. Kilda Saints Vs. Carlton Blues - looks fairly exciting considering the years that these two teams are having. Talk about underwhelming. If anything can be said about the Blues it’s that they have bounced back and played some okay to good footy since their woeful start to the year. The Saints confidence is at an all-time low – they lost to Brisbane and then were completely humiliated against the Hawks. They will be keen to show the world they are better than they seem, but unfortunately they actually aren’t better than they seem. Superstar Nick Reiwoldt has been underwhelming the last couple of weeks after starting the year so strong. He will likely bounce back soon enough and could show some form on Monday, but he won’t be strong enough to get the Saints within three goals.
Round 8 Best Betting Tips
Hawthorn Hawks Under 39.5 (Margin 1-39) - $2.35 at Ladbrokes ***
Essendon Bombers Under 39.5 (Margin 1-39) - $2.30 at Ladbrokes *
Western Bulldogs Under 39.5 (Margin 1-39) - $2.10 at Ladbrokes **
Carlton Blues -18.5 - $1.92 at Ladbrokes **
Before You Bet Round 8 Tipping Advice
Last week was another round of seven correct tips, with the Gold Coast throwing us off against the Roos and of course we didn’t get Melbourne right. Hopefully this week we can get five of five! Surely less games makes it an easier week? Remember, this isn’t betting advice, just what we pick in a tipping competition down at the local pub or in the workplace!
Hawthorn (Sydney)
Port Adelaide (Fremantle)
Essendon (Brisbane)
Western Bulldogs (Melbourne)
West Coast (GWS)
Carlton (St Kilda)
Score last round: 7
Total Score: 39
