Soak it in, there are only two rounds of footy left! The 2014 season has flown by, but luckily it looks like the best has been saved for last. There are two types of games in Round 22. Firstly, there are the all-important top eight shaping games. Then we have the games that will show us who the real deals are and who the pretenders are. Be sure to check out our latest AFL betting tips with our Round 22 preview, tips and advice.
2014 AFL Round 22 Preview
Round 22 of the 2014 AFL season kicks off on Friday night with Port Adelaide Power Vs. Carlton Blues. This is one of those situations where Carlton don’t have too much to play for, while Port Adelaide will be trying to ensure they start to build come momentum into the finals. Carlton were seemingly great against Geelong last week, but at this point it’s hard to tell if that’s because the old boys at Geelong are getting weary, or if Mick Malthouse has finally found a way to make his Blues gel. Port, on the other hand, did what they had to do up in Queensland, defeating the Suns by nine points. This one is at Adelaide Oval and while that is certainly an advantage for the Power, you have to remember that Port have only one win of the last four at this ground. The Blues also have a great record against the Power, winning seven of the last nine – five of the last six being over in South Australia. Port Adelaide supporters would really be hoping their team starts to find he form they are going to need in the finals. They might even threaten for a top four spot if things go right. On current form though and with the Blues record against the Power, you wouldn’t be confident getting your hard earned on Port Adelaide. The four-goal head start on offer for Carlton looks pretty generous.
The first game on Saturday is arguably the most interesting of Round 22 – North Melbourne Kangaroos Vs. Adelaide Crows. This an absolute must win for Adelaide. If they don’t win this, there are four other teams who will gladly take their spot in the eight. You would think this alone would be enough to spur on a gallant Crows victory. They do have to travel to Tasmania though, which has been tricky for Adelaide in the past as they have won just one in the last five down there. It’s closer to a neutral ground though as the Roos haven’t played a huge amount of football at Blundstone anyway. Adelaide will be happy that the Kangaroos will be without Brent Harvey and Daniel Wells after some undisciplined play in their victory against the Bulldogs last week. Adelaide defeated North by 36 points earlier this year and while they shouldn’t find it that easy this time around, you just get the feeling Adelaide will be very tough to beat. Happy to take a few points as a head start for Adelaide here.
Essendon Bombers Vs. Gold Coast Suns on Saturday afternoon is going to be a massive game. Essendon need to win to secure a spot in the eight and the Suns need a victory to keep any chance at a finals alive. The problem for the Suns is that Bombers are just plain better. Last week saw the Bombers extremely gallant in their victory over the Eagles, while some would say the Suns were gallant in their defeat to Port Adelaide. There are two contrasting stats at play in this game – the Dons are the number one team in the league for uncontested possessions and the Suns have the worst disposal efficiency in the league. In spite of being without gun Dyson Heppell, the Dons should be too classy for the Suns and end their chance at the finals.
Saturday afternoon sees Spotless Stadium host the GWS Giants Vs. Collingwood Magpies. This is the first time the black and white have played GWS and Collingwood fans would hate thinking about how decimated their team is for the occasion. Outs for Collingwood include Cloke, Beams, Ried, Toovey, Lumumba. To make it even harder for the Pies, the Giants are coming off a confidence-building win against the Demons. The line for this game is 7 points in Collingwood’s favour. If this game took place six weeks ago, the Pies would have been 50 point favourites. At the end of the day, even with all of their problems, the Magpies are an elite club with some of the best coaching staff, fitness staff, resources and the like in the league. It’s tough to think they would only be one goal better off than the Giants. Very interested to see how this one plays out.
One of two games on Saturday night is West Coast Eagles Vs. Melbourne Demons. There isn’t too much to say about this one. The Demons were in arguably their all-time worst form, which is really saying something when you consider how poor they were last year. It’s also at Patersons Stadium, the Eagles finals are on the line and Melbourne have lost by 93 points or more over the last three encounters against the Eagles. The Demons still haven’t kicked more than 100 points this year and good luck to them in trying to stop one of the most dangerous forward lines in the league from kicking somewhere near 20 goals.
Twice a year we get the treat that is Hawthorn Hawks Vs. Geelong Cats. It’s at the MCG this Saturday night and it’s going to be a massive game. This arguably the greatest modern rivalry in the game. It is well documented that the Cats generally have the wool over the Hawks and have been able to do what no other clubs have been able over the last five years or so – have a winning record against the brown and gold. The Hawks have Jarryd Roughead back for this one and look to be close to having their best 22 on the park. Geelong are fielding close to their best team too as they get Jimmy Bartel back this week. They will, however, sorely miss Steve Johnson. Considering these teams are all but assured they will face each other in two weeks’ time in the qualifying final, it’s hard to imagine either will get too creative in their tactics. – got to save something for when it really counts. Geelong have won 12 of the last 13 against the Hawks, nine of which were decided by single figures. Expecting another tight battle here and thinking you just have to back Geelong in these spots when they have a double-figure head start. Also need to consider Geelong have had two extra days break on top of the Hawks travelling from a tough loss to Fremantle.
The first game on Sunday for Round 22 is Brisbane Lions Vs. Fremantle Dockers. Generally this would be a guaranteed ‘W’ in the Dockers’ column and we would move on. However, the Lions have been so solid of late, defeating the Magpies by 67 points last week, that this might be a tougher game for the Dockers. The Dockers will, however, go into the game brimming with confidence as they are in their best form of the year. They first lost in a tough game to Geelong down at Simonds Stadium and then defeated the Hawks last week. Don’t expect this to be as one-sided as it might look to some.
Sunday afternoon sees Etihad Stadium host Western Bulldogs Vs. Sydney Swans. One of the big questions here is how will the Bulldogs contain Lance Franklin? The red, white and blue have struggled against big goal kicking forwards this year and with Buddy coming off a nine goal haul, he will certainly cause the pups plenty of problems. The Bulldogs haven’t beaten the Swans in four years and that certainly isn’t going to change this week. Dogs will be happy to have Jackson Mcrae and Nathan Hrovat back, while the Swans have Craig Bird and Josh Kennedy out. You wouldn’t think these changes would affect the outcome of the game too much.
The final game for Round 22 is Richmond Tigers Vs. St Kilda Saints. Richmond are, of course, on a seven-game winning streak and this game should make it eight. Unfortunately their finals chances are completely in their hands though. They will be watching Saturday’s Roos Vs. Adelaide game with interest and hoping the Roos get the win, otherwise it’s going to be tough to make the eight. Regardless, this should be an easy win for the confident black and yellow and then it will be onto next round where they will need to beat Sydney, or risk guaranteeing themselves the dreaded ninth place on the ladder.
Round 22 Best Betting Tips
Carlton at the line (+23.5) - $1.92 at Ladbrokes **
Adelaide under 39.5 (Margin 1-39) - $2.70 at Ladbrokes **
Magpies at the line (-7.5) - $1.92 at Ladbrokes **
Geelong at the line (+10.5) - $1.92 at Ladbrokes **
Fremantle under 39.5 (Margin 1-39) - $2.15 at Ladbrokes *
Before You Bet Multi of the Week
Carlton +23.5 / Adelaide 1-39 / Magpies -7.5 - $9.95 at Ladbrokes *
(*The stars represent the confidence level – three stars is high confidence, two is a medium level of confidence and one is a low level. These could be considered as the “units” of the betting play for those who follow sports betting bankroll management.)
Before You Bet Round 22 Tipping advice
Wow. Just four right last week! Collingwood lost, Adelaide lost, West Coast lost, Melbourne lost and the Hawks lost. Tough week, with a few of those a chance to go either way. Hopefully we bounce back with a better Round 22. Remember, this isn’t betting advice, just what we would pick in a tipping competition at the local pub or in the work place.
Port Adelaide (Carlton)
Adelaide (Nth Melbourne)
Essendon (Gold Coast)
Collingwood (GWS)
West Coast (Melbourne)
Geelong (Hawthorn)
Fremantle (Brisbane)
Sydney (Bulldogs)
Richmond (St Kilda)
Score last round: 4
Total score: 125
Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
