This is when the 2014 AFL Finals really heats up as it’s time for the prelims! Last week’s semi-finals saw both of the underdogs get up. Could the same happen again this weekend? Regardless, there is going to be some great footy! Make sure to check out Before You Bet’s AFL Finals Week 3 preview and betting tips!
2014 AFL Finals – Week 3 Preview (Preliminary Finals)
The first of two preliminary finals kicks off on Friday night with Sydney Swans Vs. Nth Melbourne Kangaroos. It kicks off at 7:50pm and takes place at ANZ Stadium. Obviously this is going to be a massive ask for the Roos. The Swans are flag favourites for a reason and they have had a week off to get ready for this game. The Roos, meanwhile, have had tough games against the Bombers and the Cats. There has been a lot of talk around the Roos ability to beat the top sides this year, having taken down the Swans by 43 points back in Round 4. Overall, the Swans have won the last 7 of 8 against the Roos and they can take solace in the fact they were without several of their best 22 in that losing game – including Kurt Tippet, Sam Reid and Adam Goodes, three very important players to the Swans forward structure. Interestingly, the Swans won the inside 50’s by 18 that night, but still got rolled. This clearly shows that it was that depleted forward line that let Sydney down. It won’t be the same this time. The Swans also have a great finals record at ANZ Stadium, winning 7 of the last 8.
A big factor here, like it has been with sides playing Sydney all year, is containing Sydney’s forwards. Essendon managed to score against Nth Melbourne with arguably the worst forward line in the top 8, while Geelong has had trouble with helping Tom Hawkins out close to the sticks, though they still managed to get 92 points on the board. Sydney is just a different beast in this category altogether.
It’s just too big of a stretch to think the Kangaroos can overcome the Swans at home, after the Swans have had a week off. I’m all for momentum and belief in the AFL finals, but this fully fit Sydney side is on a different level to the Roos. Leaning towards the Swans covering the four-goal line, but looking more closely at Sydney leading at every break – something they have done in 15 wins this year, including the qualifying final against the Dockers.
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The preliminary final on Saturday – Hawthorn Hawks Vs. Port Adelaide Power – should be much tougher than the Friday night game. This is at the MCG on Saturday afternoon and it’s the AFL’s two highest scoring teams. If the Hawks win this game they will be in the Grand Final for a third consecutive year. They are primed to do that too as they are pretty much fielding their best team (minus Cyril Rioli) and have had a week off to get in top-tip shape for this game. Port Adelaide, meanwhile, are fielding their best team, but are coming off a trip to Western Australia. The Power have pace on their side, but the question here will be whether or not they can keep up with the Hawks for a whole game.
The last time these two teams met was in Round 14 and the Power won by 14 points. That was when the Power were in red-hot form and the Hawks were missing Roughead, Mitchel, Gibson and Lake. This is just a different time of the year and the extensive finals experience of the Hawks, along with a fit team, will make it very hard for the Power. Considering the way the Power started against the Dockers and then finished, thinking the Hawks will grind away from the very start, immediately aiming to choke the Power’s run and then be experienced enough to keep it that way for the entire game.
2014 AFL Finals Best Betting Tips
Sydney Qtr by Qtr leader (Syd / Syd / Syd / Syd) - $1.88 at Ladbrokes
Hawks to lead at end of 1st QTR at the line (-4.0) - $1.89 at Ladbrokes
(*The stars represent the confidence level – three stars is high confidence, two is a medium level of confidence and one is a low level. These could be considered as the “units” of the betting play for those who follow sports betting bankroll management.)
Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
