I thought I would cast an eye over each of the ATP tournaments that are occurring this week and provide my favourite selection to win each tournament, as well as a potential outsider to keep an eye on for the week. Generally if there is a short favourite (such as Roger Federer in Halle), I will look to see if there is any value of note on the other side of the draw. Generally, I am pretty comfortable opposing players in some capacity coming off a Final the week the before, but considering the ease in which Federer moved through the draw in Stuttgart, and that he is coming off a couple of months with no competitive tennis, I will not be doing so this week.
Predicted Winner: Roger Federer – not much you can say really – difficult to see him losing this week to any potential opponents he is scheduled to face.
One to watch: To ensure this selection doesn’t have to face Federer in any way until a potential final, I find it best to try and cast an eye over the other side of the draw to see who is on offer, and if there are any nice value prices to consider. Coming off his Quarter Final appearance at Roland Garros, Alexander Zverev took last week off, meaning this week is his first week on the grass, taking the court in front of his home crowd. I think his grass form is solid, however the $6 looks a touch short for my liking, especially as he has said he is not 100% coming into this tournament due to the injury he picked up at Roland Garros. Instead, I am looking to Robin Haase to have a solid week, coming out of that 3rd quarter. If Haase plays to ability, he could make his way out of the 3rd quarter of the draw, which includes Nishikori (not his favourite surface) and Gasquet (coming off a final in Netherlands last week), as well as some other beatable players on grass such as Bautista-Agut/Zverev/Khachanov. Haase is a bit hit and miss, but he can afford to be at the odds of $41 at Bet365.
Predicted Winner: Marin Cilic ($8 – Ladbrokes) should be the overall favourite in my opinion. I am comfortable to back around the listed favourite in Novak Djokovic, who after his loss to Cecchinato in France wasn’t even sure whether he would play the grass tournaments this year. Cilic, last year’s Wimbledon Finallist, has put together some fantastic career results on grass. With so many question marks around some of the bigger names in the field, I cannot quite get my head around him starting as an $8 outright selection here. Verdasco will be a test round 1, however he should start favourite in every match he plays, and represents a bit of value at the price on offer.
One to watch: Tomas Berdych ($21 – Bet365) is sitting in a really good position in the draw to be able to get a couple of solid wins under his belt to boost his confidence. The main threats in his half are Dimitrov (low on confidence), Djokovic (happy to oppose), Anderson (historically has mental edge, which is a shock), Chardy (coming off a long week) and Sock (low on confidence). If Berdych plays like he did in the Netherlands, I think he is a great chance of making a deep run this week, in what is a pretty generous draw for him as the 8th seed.
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