Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for Day 2 of the TABtouch Masters Carnival at Ascot in Perth on Saturday, December 2nd.
We have an eight-race card headlined by the Group 1 Winterbottom Stakes, with the track sure to be rated Good and hot weather predicted. The rail moves out to the 6m position, and we should see it play more evenly in the early races compared to what we saw last week when the inside was inferior for the first half of the card.
We have betting tips and comments for every race below, or you can listen to Episode 12 of the Before You Bet Podcast where we take an in-depth look at the card.
ASCOT RACING TIPS
Best Bet: Race 4 The River
Best Value: Race 8 Caralabek
Race 1
TOUCH OF SILVER is the horse to beat here with the huge step back in grade from Group 3 company to BM66+ company, but I’m very keen to have a good each way bet on NO SAY IN IT here. He was well in the market first up last week but he always needs the first up run. He improves significantly second up and he must have come through the run well if he’s on the one-week back up here. Dean Yendall goes on from the good barrier and the step up to 1600m is ideal. I think he’s a great chance in this and $6 is about the price I was looking for when previewing the race on the podcast. Confident he at least runs a place for money back. SEE ME SIZZLE is in good form but I have reservations over the strength of the form out of those races.
TIP: No Say In It EW
Race 2
Clearly a two-horse race here between ROYAL STAR and LA MOULINE. The telling factor is obviously William Pike choosing to ride Royal Star, which is why she’s $1.70. She has a bad habit of playing up at the barriers, which is why she was scratched last week. They’ve been teasing applying the blinkers to her and they go on for the first time here. She will want to be at her best with 59.5kg on her back dropping back to 1400m. For me, that price is too short so I’ll be backing LA MOULINE, who is in terrific form having won her past four starts. She’s undefeated at the track, undefeated at the distance and carries 3.5kg less than Royal Star. She shouldn’t be underestimated. The value could be NEW TIME who will go straight to the front and give them both something to run down.
TIP: La Mouline
Race 3
BOLD SUCCESS is awfully short here as the odds-on favourite. He steps up from 1100m to 1400m which is sure to suit him much better than last start, especially when he was a mile off them coming round the turn on that occasion. But he isn’t necessarily a winner, with just the one win from eight starts. I’m prepared to take him on here. KING OF WU paraded very nicely when winning a midweek race last time out. From the good draw he can certainly be competitive here. Two starts ago he ran 3rd to La Mouline, which is a good form line for a race like this. LORENTINIO is the value in the race. Forget he went around last start when he was a massive drifter in betting given he was dropping back from 1400m to 1100m. Much like Bold Success, he’s better suited back up to 1400m here and his record at the track and distance means he should be competitive here with a handy claim for Tayla Stone. RAGAZZO D’ORO is ready to win and shouldn’t be discounted. Backing King Of Wu at $7.50 and Lorentinio at $14, with a saver on Ragazzo D’Oro. Bold Success can win without me.
TIP: King Of Wu / Lorentinio EW
Race 4
I think there’s only two winning chances here and THE RIVER could just be a moral at even money. I took the $2.20 when markets first went up, and he’s already been well backed. He won well first up from a spell and was set to go around in the Winterbottom Stakes but connections have instead opted to run him here. Pike retains the ride and he’s got a terrific record at the track and distance so I find it hard to see him getting beat. GEE BOSS is the horse I’m interested in and gave a decent push for in the podcast, but at the price we can just save on him ($6). He’s won two from three when first up from a spell and the blinkers go on for the first time today. He’s got a good record at the distance and looks to be the realistic danger to The River. Backing The River hard and saving on Gee Boss.
TIP: The River (Best Bet)
Race 5
Not much to talk about here with a stack of first starters in the Crystal Slipper. Interested in the favourite NEMIROFF for Lindsey Smith and Damien Oliver. That’s a notable jockey booking and the horse won a trial in good style leading into this race. He comes up shorter than what I would have anticipated but it’s no surprise to see him well respected with Oliver on board. The other runner that interests me is NGAWI. She won a trial leading into this too and draws barrier 1 here which should see her get a suck run throughout the race. At double figure odds I’m prepared to have something on each way. Expect improvement from FIRE AND RAIN with the blinkers on for the first time, and CHASING THE ACE is another at odds that is a chance after two luckless runs to date.
TIP: Nemiroff / Ngawi EW
Race 6
I can’t claim to know much about these horses at all as this is the equivalent of a Highway Handicap in Sydney. These are all country horses competing in the final at Ascot, so many of them bring very poor form lines. There’s plenty in the field that have tried in town previously without any success, and with all that considered it does look a nice race for the topweight RIVER DANCE. He draws poorly in barrier 14 but gets Damien Oliver on board, and his first up win at Geraldton was particularly impressive. He’s won second up previously, has run well in town before and has a good record at the distance, so he should go close. RUSSIAN RIVER could be the value at double figure odds. He’s got a good record at the distance and ran well last start off a 51-day break, so should be at his peak for this. NICCATRICE has had three starts at the track without placing, but has returned in fine order this campaign with two wins from two starts. He draws the inside gate which should give him his chance. Not a race I want to get involved in.
TIP: River Dance / Russian River EW
Race 7
A slightly disappointing line-up for the Winterbottom this year in terms of depth of quality. I’d suggest listening to the podcast for a very in-depth preview of the race, but essentially the race sets up ideally for State Solicitor, who was the major beneficiary of the barrier draw. He can sit wherever he wants in the field and shouldn’t be held up like he was last start. His ability to win last start and overcome the traffic he encountered in the straight was just freakish, and his first up performance before that was equally impressive. He was 1L off the winner last year and was unlucky on that occasion, and he’s a better horse this year, so in a weaker field this time around he really does look the one to beat. SANTA ANA LANE could be the value and the biggest danger to him. He’ll have to come from a long way back in the field but brings exceptional form lines to the race behind the likes of Vega Magic and Brave Smash. He’s a last start Group 1 winner over 1400m but his record at 1200m shouldn’t be underestimated, and his record fresh off a break is also excellent. VIDDORA has returned in super form this preparation but has just had no luck. She should have beaten She Will Reign in the Moir Stakes first up, and was once again unlucky last time out in the Manikato. My biggest concern is her poor record over 1200m, and she will also get a long way back given the number of runners that are likely to go forward, so at the price I have to take her on. FUHRYK is a Group 1 quality sprinting mare and the drop back from 1400m to 1200m should bring out her best. If she does run to her best, it really wouldn’t surprise me to see her win this. I took her at $34 so part of me hopes she does win! Best of the locals outside of State Solicitor could be WHISPERING BROOK who will lead and gets the blinkers on for the first time.
TIP: State Solicitor / Santa Ana Lane EW
Race 8
Nightmare race to finish off with. I’ll be backing JAZARI each way and that’s about it. He’s consistent and went close behind DUDEMANBRO last start over a similar distance at this track. From barrier 3 he’ll be able to settle midfield at worst and get a charmed run throughout the race. He should be somewhere in the finish at double figure odds. ENTRECHAT has a good record over this distance and comes out of a hot form race behind Trap For Fools. The 3kg claim helps but whether that jockey booking makes me want to back the horse is the issue. CARALABEK had no luck last start Dudemanbro and Jazari, and also ran 2nd to Trap For Fools two starts ago. Gets a 4kg weight swing on Dudemanbro and a 3.5kg weight swing on Jazari from last start, so he’s another I could entertain backing at $13. REVEILLE is a horse I really like but the sharp step up in trip from 1600m to 2100m, along with the wide barrier, means I have to take her on today at that price.
TIP: Caralabek EW / Jazari EW
Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
