Sunday football kicks off at Marvel Stadium as the Bulldogs fight to keep their top eight spot when they take on North Melbourne. It is a must win clash against an ever improving Kangaroos outfit, and Jack Tobin has you covered with his full preview below.
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2024 AFL Round 23 Preview & Betting Tips
Western Bulldogs vs North Melbourne
Sunday 1:10pm AEST, 18th August, Marvel Stadium
Round 22 was shaping perfectly for the Western Bulldogs as Essendon and Carlton dropped games that would have seen them leapfrog the Dogs. Then the Bulldogs produced an awful performance against Adelaide squandering a golden opportunity to sit a game clear inside of top eight.
Although they have clearly improved post bye, they produced one of their most disappointing losses of the season against West Coast last week. The Kangaroos led by 13 points with 1:35 left on the clock, but conceded three goals in the last 95 seconds to go down by 5 points.
The Roos completely capitulated around the ball and in defence to lose what was an unloseable game after leading by 35 points in the third quarter against one of the worst sides in the competition.
The Bulldogs had a horror day in front of goal kicking 9.18 in what was their first game scoring below 87 points since Round 17. The Bulldogs are ranked 2nd in scores from stoppage (37.9 points per game) and 2nd in scores from centre bounce (13.2 points per game), but only scored 24 and 8 points from those areas last week.
North Melbourne rank 16th and 14th in for scores from stoppage and centre bounce, which looms as an area the Dogs will break this game open in. The Bulldogs were +12 for clearances which led to a +17 differential for inside 50’s in their win over North Melbourne back in Round 16.
The other difficulty for North Melbourne is containing the Bulldogs key forwards, who have been the catalyst to the Dogs being the fourth highest scoring team in the AFL. Jamarra Ugle-Hagan has kicked 15 goals in his last five games, while Roos have struggled against Oscar Allen (5 goals), Charlie Curnow (4 goals) and Logan McDonald (4 goals) in recent weeks.
Match Prediction: This has been one of the most lopsided matchups in the competition across the last five years. The Bulldogs have won their last six games against the Kangaroos by an average winning margin of 52 points, and it’s clear the Roos don’t have the capacity to match it offensively with the Bulldogs. North Melbourne have registered 97 and 90 points in their last two games, but don’t take any stock from that given it was against the Tigers and Eagles.
The Roos average 72 points per game and concede an average score of 106 points per game, coming up against the Bulldogs at Marvel Stadium doesn’t give much confidence that either of those struggles will turn around. Luke Beveridge’s side have won four straight at Marvel including two wins by over 50 points, and this will be another convincing win to keep their spot in the top eight.
Western Bulldogs -44.5
$1.90 (1.5 Units)
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Adam Treloar 30+ Disposals: Treloar has been red hot across the last five weeks with performances of 38, 31, 40, 30 and 28 disposals. Treloar has reached the 30 disposal mark in fourteen of his twenty games this season.
Marcus Bontempelli 25+ Disposals: Despite the Dogs poor performance last week, the captain still performed with 27 disposals. Bontempelli has had 35 and 32 disposals in his last two games against North Melbourne.
Paul Curtis Anytime Goalscorer: Paul Curtis is beginning to become one of the better small forwards in the AFL, having kicked 29 goals this season. Curtis has hit the scoreboard in three of his last four games and has kicked at least one goal in his two career games against the Dogs.
SGM Odds: $3.10 at BoomBet
