Friday night AFL hosts the Elimination Final between two of the hottest teams in the competition as the Bulldogs and Hawks go head to head. Who will survive and advance to the Semi Final?
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2024 AFL Elimination Final Preview & Betting Tips
Western Bulldogs vs Hawthorn
Friday September 6th, 7:40pm AEST, MCG
Weather: 17 degrees, chance of light showers
Odds: Western Bulldogs ($1.73) vs Hawthorn ($2.10)
Line: Western Bulldogs -4.5
Points: 166.5
The Western Bulldogs punched their ticket to the finals with a barnstorming fourth quarter to beat GWS by 37 points. The Dogs led by only 11 points at three-quarter time but stood up when it mattered, kicking five goals to one in the fourth quarter.
Ed Richards (29 disposals, 2 goals) and Marcus Bontempelli (22 disposals, 11 clearances, 7 tackles) led the way for the Bulldogs. Luke Beveridge’s midfield beat up on the Giants recording +13 contested possessions and + 15 clearances which led to a +24 inside 50 differential.
Hawthorn confirmed their place in the finals with a 124-point demolition of North Melbourne in wet conditions in Launceston. It was the third straight week the Hawks have kicked over 100 points with scores of 112, 131 and 170.
Jai Newcombe (35 disposals, 10 clearances), and Massimo D’Ambrosio (31 disposals) ran around the ball, while Dylan Moore (4 goals), Mabior Chol (3 goals), Nick Watson (3 goals) and Connor Macdonald (3 goals) were excellent in a potent Hawks forward line.
Both sides have won six of their last seven games built on the back of electric attacking games. Luke Beveridge’s side is averaging 100 points per game over that seven-game period, while Sam Mitchell’s side are averaging 119 points per game. The Bulldogs have had a much harder fixture playing four top eight sides in that period compared to Hawthorn’s two, however it’s clear both sides are incredibly dangerous in the front half.
With both teams so good in the front half, the battle at the coalface will be vital for the result of this game. The Western Bulldogs rank 3rd for contested possessions (11th), 4th for clearances (11th) and 1st for inside 50’s. Hawthorn are ranked 11th, 11th and 7th in those respective categories.
The Bulldogs rank 1st in the league for scores from stoppages, 2nd for scores from centre bounces, 2nd for scores from forward half and 5th for scores from turnover.
The Hawks on the other hand have generated plenty of scores out of their defensive half, averaging 53 points per game from the back half over the last three weeks. For perspective, Sydney ranks 1st in the AFL this season for scoring from defensive half with 37 points per game.
Match Prediction: Styles make fights and this game will be decided by how it looks. If the Dogs can control the stoppages and apply enough pressure in the front half, they will win this game. If Hawthorn can break even around the ball and get their free flowing slingshot off half back, they will be incredibly difficult to stop. The profile of Luke Beveridge’s side is much more sustainable, which gives more trust that their brand will hold up under the intense pressure of finals football.
There’s a lot of hype around the “Hollywood Hawks” and rightfully so, however they have next to no big game experience. Jack Ginnivan, Jack Gunston and Luke Bruest are all premiership players, however most of the Hawthorn players who will run out on Friday night will be playing in their first final. The Bulldogs are no strangers to the finals stage, playing in four of the last five finals series. This will be one of the most entertaining matchups of the season, but the Dogs experienced midfield will lead them to the second week of Finals.
Western Bulldogs -3.5
$1.90 (1.5 Units)
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Marcus Bontempelli 25+ Disposals: Bontempelli returns to a similar scenario to the first big finals performance of his career. In the 2016 Semi Final Bontempelli ended the Hawks hopes for a fourth straight flag, with 27 disposals and 2 goals. Bontempelli has averaged 26 disposals per game across his last three finals, including a 30 disposal outing in the Bulldogs last final in 2022.
Adam Treloar 25+ Disposals: 31 year old Adam Treloar earnt his first All Australian selection after averaging 31 disposals per game this season. Treloar has recorded 25 or more disposals in 20 of his 22 games this season, including a 33 disposal performance against Hawthorn in Round 8.
Dylan Moore 2+ Goals: Like Treloar, Dylan Moore earned his first All-Australian selection last week, finally being recognised after a few quality seasons. Moore has kicked 35 goals in 2024, kicking six goals across the last two games of the home & away season. Moore has kicked multiple goals on nine occasions this season.
