Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for racing at Warwick Farm on Wednesday, July 31st.
There's seven races on today's card, with the track rated a Soft 5 and the rail in the true position.
We've previewed the entire meeting, with tips and comments for every race below.
Warwick Farm Racing Tips: Wednesday, July 31st
Best Bet: Race 2 - (5) Making Whoopee
Best Value Bet: Race 7 - (5) Wander
This looks a pretty weak race so it's no surprise to see the early market support for (9) Avon River. She opened around $2.60 and has been backed all the way in to $1.60. She raced against some of the strongest two-year-olds in the country in her debut prep and has contested two strong races to open her campaign in Melbourne this time around. She hasn't been beaten far so if she runs up to that level she'll be winning this with the drop back in grade. I'm not sure I'd be leaping into $1.60 about her but she should be winning. (5) Nombuso can improve from her first up run.
(5) Making Whoopee should be tough to beat here. She went close when heavily backed on debut at Wyong back in March, despite sitting four-wide without cover throughout. Nash Rawiller takes the ride on her first up today, she's trialled well and the stable are going nicely. (3) Sethlans could be the best of the Godolphin trio. Hugh Bowman looks a notable jockey booking and while the other two stablemates looks fairly exposed on form, Sethlans makes his debut here on the back of three trials. Draws well and should go close. (6) Rancho Notorious opened the wrong price at $10 and his price has since been corrected to $3.10. He's returning as a gelding today and he's trialled twice leading into his first up run here. He was racing against the likes of The Autumn Sun, Vegadaze and Rock last prep which is obviously all very solid form for a midweek race.
Not a great race here and not one I'm keen to bet heavily into. (8) Waka should be hard to beat. She's a light-raced filly with just seven starts to her name and it looks like she's ready to make the step up to midweek metro grade now that she's found her right distance. She scored easily at Kembla last start when stepping up to 2000m and it only looks like she'll be better as she goes further. (4) Picaro and (7) My King's Counsel both come out of the same race at Hawkesbury last start. Picaro won on that occasion but My King's Counsel was only beaten 2.5L and gets a 3kg turnaround in the weights today. He also comes into this third up so should be much better off fitness-wise. He won over 2300m last prep so he might be over the odds at $21. With that said, Picaro also looks value at $12. (1) Keep Up has a good record at this track and distance, including a good effort behind Kaapfever last time out.
(7) My King's Counsel E/W
$21
Likely to just have a two-horse play here with (1) The Party Girl and (3) Helga. The Party Girl is racing really consistently and drops back from Saturday grade to midweek grade today. She was only beaten a length when 2nd last start and half-a-length when 2nd here two starts back. She carries 59kg so has the weight but she finds a race she should be competitive in again. Helga was an impressive winner first up when very well backed. She sat wide without cover and still proved too strong. The query is if she can replicate that second up today, but if she does she will probably go close to winning again.
(3) Nicochet is pretty close to being labelled a herd-chaser but he gets his chance to win again today. He drops back to midweek company for the first time this campaign, having run 2nd in his first two starts this time in at Rosehill. He's run 2nd in both his previous starts here at Warwick Farm, one of which was at this distance, so he should be able to give this a good shake. (1) Oneness returned to midweek grade last start and he ran well in defeat behind Think Free. He goes up in weight again to 61kg but he should find the lead and prove tough to run down. (10) Paulo Pace was very well backed first up but could only manage 2nd. This is a harder race but he should be better off with that run under the belt and he should also be able to slide across and sit outside the leader from his gate. He looks the value.
Happy to stick with (1) Commander here. He won over this distance at Randwick on heavy ground two starts ago, before an admirable effort in defeat in the Grafton Guineas last start. The winner of that race was very well backed. Soft ground seems to be his go so he should get conditions to suit and he stays at the mile, which is distance all his career wins have come at. Nash Rawiller takes the ride today and he should be in the finish at $6. (7) Travancore continues to race well and is an each-way chance again, while (11) Seel The Deel steps up to metro class but does get in very light at the weights with the 3kg claim.
Tricky race to end with. There's one horse that I'm interested in having something small on and that's (5) Wander at $10. He was comfortably beaten by Black Magnum first up but Black Magnum then came out and won again so the form out of the race looks very solid. Wander is undefeated second up from a spell, which includes a win at Canterbury in midweek metro ground last preparation. Nash Rawiller is a strong jockey booking today. The queries are barrier 1 and also his record at 1200m, which currently reads four starts for zero placings. Each way.
