Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for racing at Warwick Farm on Wednesday, July 10th.
There's seven races on today's card, with the track rated a Heavy 9 and the rail in the 3m position.
We've previewed the entire meeting, with tips and comments for every race below.
Best Bet: Race 3 - (4) Lashes
Best Value Bet: Race 4 - (2) A Million Dreams
There's been a huge move early in betting for (3) Echo Lad but I'll be sticking with (1) Judicator. He was luckless on debut but atoned for that defeat with a decent victory at Hawkesbury last time out. That was over 1500m on a Soft 7 so he has a decent grounding for the 1600m on heavy ground today. (6) Satin Rain gets the blinkers on for the first time today after running the best final 200m last start when beaten as favourite at Newcastle. She could improve sharply.
(6) Lochita trialled well on heavy ground at the end of last month to suggest she should take a bit of beating on debut here. She doesn't find a strong field and the stable will definitely have her fit enough to run 1200m. She'll jump straight to the lead and be the one to run down. (7) Sharapova resumes for her second preparation today. The form from her first preparation is relatively good, with the likes of Amangiri, Rock and Kylease all horses she raced against. If she's improved during her time away then she'll be hugely competitive in this.
You'd think on exposed form (4) Lashes is a deserved favourite here. Her form going back to the start of the year just stacks up really well. She was narrowly defeated by Vegadaze on New Years' Day, then beat Kylease, was outclassd by Fiesta and Estijaab in the Inglis Sprint, before beating Ligulate comfortably (who then came out and won shortly after). She resumed with a 2nd placing behind Sir Elton first up at Wyong and we saw that horse win easily in Saturday metro grade on the weekend, so the form is strong. She's already won on heavy ground before so if she runs to her best, she'll win. (5) Transmitter hasn't had much luck this preparation and should be able to run well with even luck, while (3) Black Magnum resumes from a spell and has trialled well.
Tricky race. Having a throw at the stumps here wtih (2) A Million Dreams each way. He had no luck in his first few starts this prep and then ran 2nd on heavy ground at Hawkesbury last start. He's got race fitness on his side, handles the conditions and if you forgive him for the bad luck he encountered in his earlier few starts, his form isn't all that bad. (1) Knowitall Jack resumes from a spell. The query is he carries 60kg first up on a heavy 9. (6) Southern Romance is racing well but the form out of her past two starts has been particularly ordinary. (9) Licko'paint isn't hopeless at each way odds.
A few non-winners of the highest order engaged here. I'll go with (10) Black And Tan on top who won at Scone two starts back and ran well in defeat behind Unguarded on heavy ground at Kensington last start. She doesn't have a good record at the mile but she's drawn soft and is racing well. (8) Miss Jenny is a swimmer. She loves heavy ground and comes into this third up from a spell. She was only beaten a nose last start so could be the value at $9.00.
(3) Cuban Sizzle could be worth an each way bet here. She put two wins together earlier this prep, one of which was at Kensington, before a bit of a luckless run here at Warwick Farm two starts back. Last start she ran 4th behind Notation on heavy ground. Notation then came out last weekend and won again in Saturday metro grade, so the form is strong. Drawn well in barrier 2, gets a nice claim for Louise Day and I have my reservations about the favourites Sweet Ava and High Low Bet.
The only two I'm interested in here are the two at the top of the market. (8) The Party Girl has run well all prep, including a win two starts back at Kensington. She got a long way back after missing the start last start but still ran home well and today gets a big jockey change with Blake Shinn going on. When she won two starts back, she beat (4) Pembroke Castle by 1.2L. Pembroke Castle gets a small weight swing in its favour today and also gets Hugh Bowman booked to ride (Rebeka Prest rode it that day). I think he's ready to win now and he goes on top narrowly. Happy to back him and save on The Party Girl.
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