Welcome to our horse racing preview and betting tips for Day 2 of the Warrnambool Carnival on Wednesday, May 6th.
Day 2 consists of nine races on the all-flat racing card, including the Listed Wangoom Handicap and Listed Warrnambool Cup.
Check out our race-by-race preview and betting tips for Day 2 of #TheBool below!
Warrnambool Racing Tips: Wednesday, May 6th
Best Bet: Race 8 - (8) Too Close The Sun
Best Value: Race 9 - (3) Glorious Sinndar
Race 1 - Super VOBIS 2YO Hcp 1100m (Market)
Fascinating race to open the card from a betting perspective, but not an easy one. (6) Icantoo is our favourite for Leon and Troy Corstens, with Craig Williams on board for her debut. She's been entered in a few races recently, but they've elected to kick her off here. She comes into this with two jumpouts at Flemington under her belt. In her most recent jumpout, she led a small field of four and really put them to the sword, pulling away to score by a big space. While she was visually impressive, the time she ran was actually the third-slowest of the 12 heats on the day. Similarly, in her first jumpout, the time was the 12th fastest of 17 heats on the day. So while she's looked like a star, the clock hasn't exactly backed it up. With that in mind, I'll be opposing her here at the current $3.20 quote. It's not easy separating the others though. (3) Foresight has jumped out well at Camperdown and Warrnambool. He gets Dean Yendall aboard for local trainer Symon Wilde. (4) The Billionaire debuted as favourite at Bendigo where he led before fading out to finish 5th. He's had a jumpout at Flemington since then, where he ran 2nd to Forever Free in the fastest two-year-old heat of the morning. Forever Free has since come out and won in Listed grade in Adelaide last weekend and remains unbeaten from three starts, so the form certainly stacks up. Anthony Freedman has had five runners at Warrnambool this season and all five have finished in the placings. (5) War Na Bool is the omen bet and is worth including at $26. He was beaten 7.75L on debut at Terang but the run was better than it looks on paper. He was trapped five-wide the entire race and actually loomed up like he'd be a real chance at the 250m, before peaking and fading out to finish 5th. The winner of that race came out and won in midweek metro grade at his next start, so the form out of the race is strong. (7) Morning Parade has jumped out well at Flemington, leading all the way to win his most recent heat, which was on the same morning as The Billionaire. Morning Parade's time was the second-fastest of the five two-year-old heats of the morning. (8) Taylor's Dream ran bravely on debut at Bendigo, settling outside the leader and fighting on to be beaten 0.4L. The horse that won the race had run 3rd to Forever Free the start prior, which I've alluded to as being strong form. I see her once again finding a position up on speed and that could be the place to be early. Ciaron Maher and David Eustace have a great record here and I'm happy to stick with her at $4.20.
Race 2 - BM70 Hcp 1200m (Market)
Tough race. (7) Street Tough is the favourite and he's Patrick Payne's only runner for the day, with stable jockey Billy Egan aboard. I have mixed feelings about his first up run, which was also his first run for the stable. He'd previously been trained in Tasmania and had been prepared there prior to his run at Geelong three weeks ago, so Payne hadn't had him long leading into that. His run was fair. He was beaten 2.2L into 4th, and while he worked to the line nicely, his closing sectionals didn't jump off the page. But this is a very good stable at improving horses and also showing more intent in the race they want to win. He was unwanted in betting first up, but I feel he'll be firm or well-backed here. He'll appreciate getting back onto soft ground; he's had three wins from five starts in the wet prior to today. Barrier 1, expect Billy to show intent (not necessarily go forward but at least be proactive). As I said, with this stable, I'm expecting the horse to improve and with this being their only runner for the day, I think he'll be going very close. It's a deep race though, despite the small numbers. I'll also be having something on Lindsey Smith's runner (9) Queen La Diva. This mare is new to the stable this prep. Unfortunately, first up she did something she's done before, completely bombing the start by the best part of 10L. Her run after that was actually very good though. She was beaten 3.8L and ran the fastest final 800m, 600m and 400m of the race, and the second-fastest final 200m, which was only 0.02sec off the fastest final 200m. Since that race, she's had a couple of jump outs and has gone well enough. Last preparation she blew the start in similar fashion and was given a very quiet run after that, but she actually came out and won her next start in terrific style. It really does all depend on how she jumps here - for the Betfair players, I'd be waiting to see her jump with the field before backing her. (8) Kepi Blanc is a runner I'm terrified of. He's trained by Adam Chambers who is only a small trainer, but he's got a decent record, with eight winners from 34 runners in the past 12 months. In those eight winners, two of them were here at Warrnambool. The horse won its first two starts in the middle of last year before losing form. He returns from a 34-week break here, he's jumped out well at Camperdown on April 14, and Craig Williams goes straight on for his first up run today. It really wouldn't surprise me to see him well-backed from his current $8.50 quote. (3) Make It Count is another that's first up. He won three straight at the start of last prep, all on wet ground, and the first of them was here at Warrnambool. He's had one jumpout at Cranbourne leading into today and looked good. (2) Rock Tycoon is mixing his form but if he turns up today, he'll be right in this. Street Tough and Queen La Diva the two for me. Kepi Blanc the scary horse. Tough race so only playing small.
Value: (9) Queen La Diva $6.50
Race 3 - VOBIS Gold Strike 1000m (Market)
(9) Sunnyside Cottage jumped out well leading into her debut here, showing good speed to find the front and extend nicely. Luke Nolen takes the ride for John Maloney; they've teamed up seven times this season for four top-two finishes. On-pace could be the place to be early and that's where she'll be from barrier 3. I think the value is (8) Queen Zyrah for Symon Wilde and Brad Rawiller. We'll get a really good guide on the form of his jumpout at Camperdown through her stablemate Foresight in the first race. They jumped out together and although Foresight probably went a touch better, Queen Zyrah also jumped out well, being pushed out late to go past the leader on the line. If Foresight runs well, we can be more confident, but in any case I think she'll run well from the inside gate here. (7) Pocket Goddess has jumped out in typical Hayes/Hayes/Dabernig fashion at Flemington, improving from her first to her second. She showed more speed in her second jumpout, finding the front and extending nicely to the line. (2) Chrome Angel won well on debut before tackling a stronger race last start. She'll find this easier but I am overlooking her here. There is $5.50 and $9.00 available for Sunnyside Cottage and Queen Zyrah respectively. I'll be backing both.
Value: (8) Queen Zyrah $9.00
(9) Sunnyside Cottage
$5.50
Race 4 - BM70 Hcp 1400m (Market)
This race is wide open. (1) Salorsci looks primed to run a big race third up from a spell. He's had two runs back from a lengthy break and improved from his first up run to his second up run. Third up, up to 1400m now, he has to carry the big weight but he looks ready to win. (2) Mr Tipla was a strange watch first up when I was very keen on him. He was run off his legs and chasing from a long way out, but then had a chequered passage in the home straight. He'll likely be a long way back agin and he gets a jockey downgrade. The step up in distance helps but his second up record isn't as good as his first up record. So he has some positives and some negatives which makes him hard to assess. (3) Hard 'N' Tough had four wins and two placings from six starts last prep. She resumes today over a trip shorter than any of the races she contested last prep which is the main concern, but it's hard to argue with her form and her recent jumpout was good. I'd be keen on (7) Takumi in a different scenario but to me his set up here is a major query. He had two runs back from a spell - his first two in Australia - both over the mile, then had seven weeks off and now drops back to 1400m. Given he raced over 2000m+ in the UK, that's a negative set up to me. (8) Brilliant Concept was given a nice barrier trial first up at Sandown, beaten 2L in what's turned out to be a strong form reference. Three horses have come out of that race and won. Brad Rawiller takes over from the apprentice second up here and it wouldn't shock to see him win. (9) Mai Shiny Choice has a terrific record at the track, with five top-two finishes from six starts. (11) Wheal Grace has mixed her form this prep but has had excuses along the way. They took her straight to the front last start and she led all the way. Paul Preusker runners are always scary in this scenario so have to respect, but can't get it much shorter. Salorsci and Brilliant Concept for me in a wide-open race.
Value: (8) Brilliant Concept $8.00
Race 5 - 3YO BM70 Hcp 1400m (Market)
Keen on (8) Evening Glory here, who is the second of Anthony Freedman's two runners for the day. He resumed at Bendigo with just a fair run, before improving second up at Bendigo to run 2nd. Third up, up to 1400m suits. Soft track some query but he looks set to peak here and I'd expect him to be going very close. One at blowout odds to include is (10) Savaquin. This horse was backed as if unbeatable first up in WA last prep. He'd had three trials going into it and was about $26 into $6.00. He then stepped straight up from 1400m to 2000m and failed. Now finds himself in Victoria at Smith's Warrnambool stables and reusmes from a break with no public jumpouts or trials that I can find, but stable jockey Dean Yendall goes straight on. Very sneaky prep and I'll be taking a bit of the $26. (5) Whittington Stone is going well with back-to-back wins at Pakenham coming into this. Mike Moroney has had four runners at Warrnambool for a win and three placings, so he can go well again. (1) Golden Gorge hard to beat and chances don't end there.
Race 6 - BM70 Hcp 1700m (Market)
The set up of (9) Jenkins looks very good for this race. He resumed in town behind the likes of Beehunter, Killavally and Orleans Rock, which is very strong form, and then was beaten 0.6L last start over the mile, again in town. Should find this to be an easier race, Craig Williams has stuck with him all prep, he won his only prior start when third up from a spell, and he draws well in barrier 5. He's the one to beat. (15) Flag Edition hasn't got a run yet as the first emergency but if she does she'll give this a good shake. She ran 3rd first up at this track and distance, before dropping back slightly to the mile last start at Pakenham and winning easily. Billy Egan rode her on that occasion and he rides her again today. He's striking at 36% for Michelle Payne. (11) Skyway Star was given the biggest barrier trial you'll see first up at Terang, dropping out to settle last before working home well down the outside. He's run 2nd in all three starts when second up from a spell. Clayton Douglas takes over today and he's got a good record riding for Symon Wilde. (2) Pour Vous has a poor first up record but Dean Yendall is booked to ride and he's the stable jockey for Lindsey Smith. An apprentice rode him first up last prep, so while this looks short of his best trip, I'm wary. (4) Quality Approach, (10) Predicated and even (13) Jealous Tycoon have some claims.
Race 7 - Listed Wangoom Handicap 1200m (Market)
Good little race the Wangoom. (1) Order Of Command couldn't have been much more impressive first up at Caulfield, where he cruised to the front and put his rivals away to win by 2L with a bit more in hand. He carries the full 62kg here, which is basically the only query. His second up record is outstanding, with three wins from five starts. His record on wet tracks is terrific, with four wins from six starts, and this is his best distance. Danny O'Brien only brings two runners here today and this is one of them, and Damien Oliver keeps the ride. He looks the one to beat despite the weight. I thought Great Again was his biggest danger and the value in the race, but he's been scratched. (2) Reykjavik was good first up and Yendall sticks with him. We've seen him go well second up in the past but it's just whether 1200m is a touch short of his best trip. Mike Moroney also has a strong hand, with both (6) Mr Marathon Man and (16) Hawker Hurricane. Mr Marathon Man was beaten 6L by Order Of Command first up so he's got a fair task ahead to turn the tables, but he should appreciate wet ground, he'll be fitter for his first up run and he gets a stack of gear changes. Hawker Hurricane hasn't been far off at all in some strong races up in Sydney and Dwayne Dunn has a terrific strike rate for Mike Moroney.
(1) Order Of Command
$3.10
Race 8 - Listed Warrnambool Cup 2350m (Market)
Competitive race but sticking with (8) Too Close The Sun to make it a hattrick of wins in Victoria. His win two starts ago at Moonee Valley was hugely impressive, kicking away to score by 3.75L after doing some early work to find the lead. He followed that with a 2.5L win in the Terang Cup last start, where he was four weeks between runs, and he carries the same weight today. He's undefeated on soft ground, should roll straight to the front and prove too good once again. It's an even bunch behind him. (7) Mirimar was well beaten at Flemington last start in a hard-run 2600m. He won over 2400m on heavy ground at Caulfield prior to that, where he beat (1) Inverloch by 1.25L, and he meets Inverloch 1.5kg better off at the weights for that run. The drop back in trip and the slower-run race will suit him better. He'll get a good run from the inside gate and I've already mentioned above how good Dwayne Dunn's strike rate for Mike Moroney is. (6) Sin To Win is knocking on the door but I'm not sure the drop back in trip is a positive for him, but the soft ground is.
(8) Too Close The Sun
$3.00
Race 9 - BM78 Hcp 2350m (Market)
There's a few horses that could show sharp improvement here and it looks an open end to the carnival. (3) Glorious Sinndar is one of those horses. He was beaten 6L first up at Edenhope, and then 9.3L last start at Sandown, but he could spike third up here. He's only placed in four of his 16 starts when first or second up, but he's got two wins and two placings from five starts when third up. He had 88 weeks off leading into this prep, so it's fair to assume he would take a couple of runs to get fit. He's won three of his five starts at the distance, won his only previous start at the track, has five wins from nine starts on soft ground, and Craig Williams is booked to ride. The query is whether he's the same horse after the long layoff, but he fits the profile of a horse that has been targeted towards this and $19 looks over the odds. (8) Clementina is favourite but she's found her right price. She'll be popular given she's a last-start winner and has the Danny O'Brien/Damien Oliver combo, but she's only won two races from 20 starts and she steps back up in trip to 2400m, which she hasn't won at yet. (10) Heir To The Throne probably wants it as wet as possible, and I'm not sure he'll quite get it wet enough here. (12) Nashville Sound has a perfect set up for the race. He's had three runs back from a spell and all three have been pass marks. He steps up to 2350m now, he gets soft ground which he excels on, and he's never missed a place here at Warrnambool. He looks the one to beat.
(3) Glorious Sinndar E/W
$19
