Friday night action begins in New Zealand with the Warriors hosting the Raiders. It is a crucial game for both sides in their quest for a spot in the Top 8 and even the Top 4. Both have 11 wins for the season, but the Raiders have had 1 more Bye than the Warriors. This promises to be an exciting NRL match.
BeforeYouBet will take a comprehensive look at the action and see if we can find a winner or two to get your weekend off to a good start. Check out our best bets for the Warriors vs Raiders below, and make sure to head over to our NRL Tips page for more Round 21 content!
NRL Round 21 Preview & Betting Tips
New Zealand Warriors vs Canberra Raiders
Go Media Stadium, Friday 21st July, 6pm (AEST)
The Warriors made a statement with a commanding 44-12 victory over the Sharks at home. Heading into the match as equal favourites, the Warriors overcame an early try to the Sharks to score 4 of their own and lead 22-6 at the break. They didn’t let up in the second half either, scoring a total of 8 tries for the match. Their 90% completion rate meant that their share of possession (55%) was utilised; they played with poise in dominating the middle and setting up positive attacking opportunities. Despite missing more tackles (43 vs 38), they managed to keep the Sharks to just 4 line breaks and 2 offloads. If this standard can be maintained, they will be difficult for any team to stop.
The Raiders enjoyed their final Bye of the year last week, rewarded following their 10-point victory over the Dragons. Dictating play in the first half, they lead 24-6 at the break and looked likely to post a large total on their opponents. That wasn’t the case though, with the Raiders allowing the Dragons back into the contest, eventually prevailing 36-26. It is somewhat concerning that they trailed their opponents in most areas too; they had a lesser share of possession (46%), an inferior completion rate (77%), had fewer metres, fewer post-contact metres and missed more tackles (44) and allowed more line breaks (9 vs 8). These are key areas that they must amend if they are to remain competitive against the leading teams in the competition.
There is something special building at the Warriors. They have plenty of momentum and will relish again playing in front of their home fans, where the Raiders can struggle to win (Warriors 57% vs Raiders 33% - just 6 wins in 18 attempts). In previous years, this would be a game the Warriors would struggle to win. Recent performances suggest there is an edge to this team and while they are on even points with the Raiders, the visitors are not without their limitations. The Warriors average more points in attack (24 ppg vs 22ppg), but the biggest difference comes in defence where the Warriors concede 7 fewer points on average (18ppg vs 25ppg). The trip to NZ also poses issues; the Raiders have a 33% win record (just 6 wins in 18 attempts) compared to the Warriors 57%; it should be noted that the Warriors have won just 1 of their past 4 home games in NZ against the Raiders.
Much like their Round 15 fixture that the Warriors won 36-14, a similar, yet closer result is expected this time. Key forward inclusions for the Raiders will tighten up the middle and with that in mind, the margin should remain within 2 converted tries. There are other games this weekend with clearer options, so keep your investment low in this game.
Warriors 1-12
$3 (1 Unit)
Same Game Multi
Popular bookmaker Picklebet have launched their Same Game Multis for both the AFL and NRL. There are plenty of markets to choose from an excellent odds on offer, so make sure to check them out!
Warriors to Win – The Warriors are the preferred selection in this contest and the previous meeting for reasons mentioned above.
Total Points Over 41.5 – The total seems too low with all things considered, and I expect it to go over.
Montoya 1+ Try – He has scored the second most tries this season (8) but has not been short of opportunities in the past few matches.
SGM Odds: $3.60 at Picklebet (0.5 Units)
