What a way to close out NRL Round 12, as the Dolphins head across the ditch to take on the Warriors at Go Media Stadium. With the Warriors fresh off a huge victory over the Panthers in Magic Round, is their season about to kick into gear, or was last week’s win just a flash in the pan? One thing is for sure, Wayne Bennett will have the Dolphins prepared and ready to go.
Below, we will dissect the matchup, supply our Best Bet, and suggest a Same Game Multi. Be sure to keep up to date with all the NRL fixtures, as we preview every single game all season long, for free!
Also, if you’re new to sports betting or betting on the NRL, check out the following articles to help build your knowledge:
- Guide to Betting on the NRL
- Where to Bet on the NRL
- Factors to Consider When Betting on the NRL
2024 NRL Round 12 Preview & Betting Tips
New Zealand Warriors vs The Dolphins
Go Media Stadium, Sunday 26th May, 4:05pm (AEST)
Last Week
As mentioned, the Warriors got the better of the Panthers last Sunday in a highly emotional win for the Wahs. Well, emotional for all bar Addin Fonua-Blake, who allegedly didn’t want a bar of sharing in the celebrations and has since been dropped this week. The question now is, do they push on from this win, or is an emotional drop in form on the horizon? One of the stars of the show last week was rookie Taine Tuaupiki, who ran for 198 metres, scored a try, and broke the line twice. But the biggest star was former Panther Te Maire Martin, who tore the Panthers’ defence to shreds with four line-break assists and three try assists.
As for the Dolphins, they won their third straight and fourth in five, as they easily accounted for the Tigers 24-12. Despite making 13 errors and missing 44 tackles, the result was never in doubt, however I believe it was more down to the lack of attack from the Tigers, than the great play from the Dolphins. Now, you can only beat who is in front of you, so we can’t take anything away from the Dolphins, however the Dolphins draw has been ridiculously easy, playing only one top 8 side (Broncos), losing that game 28-14. Whilst the Warriors aren’t in the top 8, they should be right up for this game.
Match Preview
These teams met twice last season in the first year of the Dolphins, with the home side dominating both matchups. In round 14 in Auckland, the Warriors dismantled the Dolphins 30-8 as 8.5-point favourites. Then, in the final round of the season, the Dolphins hammered the Warriors 34-10 at Suncorp Stadium as 5.5-point underdogs. I won’t take anything from this game though, as the Warriors rested plenty of their stars with their top 4 finish assured.
Skipping forward to this game, and the Dolphins opened 2.5-point road favourites prior to Magic Round, in a true signal of how far the market had dropped the Warriors. After the Warriors huge win over the Panthers, the game re-opened as a pick em’. The market though, isn’t buying it, as the Dolphins have once again pushed out to 2.5-point favourites. Whilst some of this is no doubt on the loss of Fonua-Blake, I also sense the market doesn’t believe the Warriors win last week was anything more than a flash in the pan. I make the Dolphins 1.5-point favourites, in a matchup that can honestly go either way.
As for the total, it opened 42.5 on the look ahead, stayed at 42.5 at re-open, and has since dropped to 41.5, with the over heavily juiced. My fair is 42.5, so I see no value in the total of this one.
The market is getting more efficient, so there isn’t a great deal of value in either market. With a matchup that is this hard to pick the winner, I like to pick the underdog, especially when it’s a home underdog. This could go horribly wrong, but I’ve got to believe the Warriors will push on from their win last week. The loss of AFB could be a blessing, with a locker room cancer being removed a likely result of his axing.
So, we go with the home dog this week in a coin flip. Up the Wahs!
Warriors to Win
$2.30 (2 Units)
Same Game Multi
J Bostock (1+ try) – 9 tries in 10 games for the second-year winger, the Dolphins will attack the Warriors right edge defence all game.
D Watene-Zelezniak (1+ try) – Love the Flying Perm, and always have to have him in my same game multis. Five tries this season, he is well behind his total of 24 last year, expect DWZ to push on now.
Either team to win by (1-12) – As above, this could go either way, and both teams play tight games more often than not.
SGM Odds: $5.84 at Neds
