After a week’s break the UFC returns this weekend heading to the Apex Center in Las Vegas, Nevada. In the main event Kiwi Kai Kara-France returns against Amir Albazi in a fight that will likely determine the next title contender. In the co-main Alex Caceres faces Daniel Pineda and veteran Jim Miller meets Jared Gordon. We take a look at my three best bets on the card below.
UFC Fight Night Preview & Betting Tips
Kai Kara-France vs. Amir Albazi
Kai Kara-France fell last time to champ Brandon Moreno but prior to the end where the contender was dropped and finished from a brutal body shot the Kiwi was arguably on top. His opponent Amir Albazi is 4-0 in the Octagon, getting finishes in three of those victories.
This is an evenly matched fight and the oddsmakers agree. Kara-France will win minutes whereas Albazi has the power and silky submission skills to finish the fight in an instant. Here I have to side with the Kiwi due to his lateral movement and his ever-improving striking defence. This was on full display against Cody Garbrandt where he showed patience to pick his shot and not rush to get a finish. Back the Kiwi to return to the winners list.
Kai Kara-France to win
$2 (2.5 Units)
Alex Caceres vs. Daniel Pineda
Alex Caceres’ skillset has long been overlooked as has his improvement from fight to fight. The American comes into this fight off of a knockout victory over Julian Erosa and has won five of his last six fights. His striking mixed with sneaky submissions makes him a handful for anyone on the feet and on the ground.
Caceres’ opponent Daniel Pineda is a finish or bust fighter, failing to register a decision victory in the UFC. His aggression has proved costly for him on multiple occasion, often overthrowing his strikes and leaving himself open to counters. He also has been submitted six times which makes going to ground with a sneaky submission artist not a wise move. I expect Caceres to control the centre and the exchanges on the feet and make Pineda pay when he overthrows. While I like chances of Caceres locking up a submission, I will play it safe and just back him to get his hand raised.
Alex Caceres to win
$1.57 (3 Units)
Jim Miller vs. Jared Gordon
Jim Miller is a fan favourite and gets a great match up here to get a win as an underdog. The American is now 39-years-old with 41 UFC fights to his name but is always gritty and a danger on the mat. Jared Gordon doesn’t have a strong stand-up game nor the wrestling to neutralise Miller. He also likes to push forward and hang out in the clinch, a recipe for disaster against Miller who is a dangerous submission threat and not afraid to pull guard in an instant and lock up an armbar finish. If Miller is to get another UFC win, Gordon is the perfect chance.
Jim Miller to win
$2.60 (2 Units)
