UFC 210 marks the UFC’s second PPV foray into New York and while it’s not the epic card we got at Madison Square Garden, it’s still a fantastic card. The headliner is a rematch for the light heavyweight title between one of the greatest ever in Daniel Cormier and one of the most dangerous ever in Anthony Johnson. Read on for our preview of that fight and the rest of the UFC 210 main card.
Daniel Cormier (c) 18-1 vs Anthony ‘Rumble’ Johnson (#1) 22-5
In the main event, champion Daniel Cormier will take on Anthony ‘Rumble’ Johnson, the man he beat to claim vacant light heavyweight title. The first fight was a back and forth contest where Rumble had a lot of success earlier, before Cormier took over and earned a late rear naked choke finish. Cormier is a former Olympic level wrestler who up until his fight with Jon Jones, hadn’t lost a round in his entire career (an incredible feat considering he spent the majority of his career as an undersized heavyweight). However, his next three fights against Jones, Rumble and Alex Gustafson were all epic wars, were he sustained considerable damage. That, coupled with his age and injuries make me think we are going to see a diminished Cormier at this point of his career. His last outing was a lacklustre performance against Anderson Silva at UFC 200. That was an easy style match up for Cormier, and he played it safe riding out the 3 rounds in dominant position. Despite my reservations, Cormier is still an incredible fighter, with the best high crotch takedowns you will ever see. He has great forward pressure, world class grappling and once he gets an opponent to the ground, the rounds a wrap. He has an iron chin, which is still yet to be cracked and unlike his opponent has shown a consistent ability to maintain his level of output over 5 rounds.
Anthony ‘Rumble’ Johnson is a straightforward fighter to breakdown; he is a ferocious power puncher with excellent takedown defence, but downright awful cardio. Rumble has bounced back from the loss to Cormier with three straight victories; all by KO and is coming off a 13 second obliteration of former title contender Glover Texeria. Unlike Cormier who seems to be regressing, Rumble continues to improve under the tutelage of Dutch kickboxing trainer Henri Hooft. He will have a lot of advantages on the feet in this fight; he is the faster, more technical and much more powerful striker. He is most effective when countering, but also has brutal lead strikes and kicks. Rumble also has some of the best takedown defence in the division and while he was fresh in the first fight managed to stuff all of Cormier’s attempts. But you cannot break down Rumble without mentioning his conditioning. Not only does Rumble gas badly at about the two round mark, he often seemingly gives up once his opponent starts to take the upper hand. All of his career loses have come when he is clearly tired and each time he gets taken down, makes no effort to block guard passes, gives up his neck and gets submitted. This is a massive issue against a grinding wrestler like Cormier who has great control, guard passes and a ‘vice like’ squeeze.
Prediction: In their first encounter, my breakdown was that Rumble has a decent chance of KOing Cormier, but if he can’t do it early, Cormier will dominate. And that’s exactly how I’m viewing the second fight too. Despite being the reigning champion and having a recent win over Rumble, Cormier comes into this one as a slight underdog at most books and I’m sure that’s down to question marks over his age and condition. Cormier’s best weapon in the first fight was countering Rumble’s overhand with takedowns and I think that will be available for him again here, particularly when Rumble overextends looking for a finish. Cormier is at a significant reach and striking disadvantage; so I expect him to pressure Rumble and close the distance as soon as the bell goes. In the first fight I think Rumble got to reckless chasing the finish, he has to have a more measured approach. If his takedown defence holds up, which I think it will through the first few rounds, he is going to have plenty of opportunities to hurt Cormier. He needs to stick and move and avoid getting tied up against the fence. How the early wrestling match pans out will go a long way to determining who leaves the light heavyweight champion. If Cormier can get Johnson down or with his back to the cage; his grinding style will negate rumbles power and sap his energy. On the other hand, if Rumble can keep the distance, his striking advantages will pay handsome dividends. A tough fight to call, but the differences in performance trajectories is too significant to ignore and I’m picking Rumble to get his hand raised. I’m tempted to bet Rumble by KO, but there isn’t much extra value to I’ll just get on him straight; most likely by early KO. Anthony Johnson by 2nd round KO.
TIP: Anthony Johnson to win - $1.83 at Ladbrokes
Chris Weidman (#4) 13-2 vs Gegard Mousasi (#5) 41-6-2
This fight takes place in the shark tank that is the UFC’s middleweight division. While Michael Bisping currently sits atop the heap, there is plethora of elite level talent vying for the middleweight title; including Australia’s own Robert Whittaker (who has the unenviable task of Jacare Souza next week). A win for either Chris Weidman or Gegard Moussai will go a long way to earning them the winner of Michael Bisping and Yoel Romero. Former champion Chris Weidman is currently riding a 2 fight losing streak, the first two losses of his career. After relinquishing his title to Luke Rockhold in December 2015, he was brutally knocked out by Romero in front of his adoring home town crowd at Maddison Square Garden last November. Prior to that; Weidman had been almost flawless, dispatching MMA greats like Anderson Silva, Lyoto Machida and Vitor Belfort with a combination of solid boxing, high level wrestling and slick BJJ. In retrospect his record may be slightly padded as he faced all these fighters on the downslope of their careers. Unfortunately he is right up along Cormier as one of the most injury prone fighters in the UFC, worryingly he has had a number of recent back surgeries which seem to be the hardest to bounce back form. This is a massive fight for Weidman, three straight losses will send him right to the back of the line of title contention and the UFC have done him no favours by booking him against the uber experienced and dangerous Gegard Mousasi.
Gegard Mousasi might be one of the most underappreciated fighters in the UFC. The Iranian born Judoka is a former DREAM and STRIKEFORCE champion and despite being only 31, this will be his 50th professional fight. He has won 6 of his last 7 fights, with his only loss coming when an ill-timed takedown attempt meant his chin connected flush with a wild Uriah Hall flying knee. Mousasi is a technical master on the feet; he likes to work behind a surgically precise jab. He is comfortable striking coming forward or retreating, but has employed a more aggressive game-plan in recent fights. He also has an underrated ground game, particularly in top position where he has some seriously dangerous ground and pound.
Prediction: This is another really tough fight to call between two of the best fighters in the division. Mousasi’s accuracy, volume and defence should see him get the better of it on the feet, but Weidman’s wrestling and BJJ will get him the edge on the mat. However this is not a straight forward wrestler vs grappler match up as both fighters are more than capable of hanging in their opponents wheelhouse. At the peak of their powers I would definitely lean Weidman, but similarly to Cormier in the main event, I’m looking to fade Weidman here. Injuries and brutal losses mean it’s highly unlikely we are going to see him perform at the level he was 3 years ago. Conversely, Mousasi has never looked better and I think he will be able to keep Weidman at the end of his jab and unable to get regular takedowns. If Mousasi does get the win, I’m pretty confident it will be by decision. He doesn’t have the Romero like power to put Weidman away and I think when this fight does go to the ground he will play it safe looking to ride out rounds rather than unleash his patented ground and pound. Gegard Mousasi by 29-28 decision.
TIP: Gegard Mousasi by decision - $3.15 at Ladbrokes
Cynthia Calvillo 4-0 vs Pearl Gonzalez 6-1
I’m really not sure why this fight is on the main card. Pearl Gonzalez is making her octagon debut and this will only by Cynthia Calvillo’s 5th profession fight. I can only find limited tape on either fighter so can’t give an insightful breakdown. My go to play for all female straw weight fights is the over 2.5 rounds, but surprisingly of their combined 9 career victories only two fights have gone to decision. So on paper this would appear this is a match-up between two finishers so the under 2.5 might be worth a look. However I have no idea whether the high finish rate is just down to low quality of opposition. This one’s a total pass for me.
Thiago Alves 26-10 vs Patrick Cote 24-10
Despite not being household names, both these fighters have fought for UFC gold. For Thiago Alves his opportunity came at UFC 100 against George St-Pierre in 2009, whereas Patrick Cote fought another legend in Anderson Silva at UFC 90 in 2008. Needless to say, neither man was successful. Alves is returning to the welterweight division after missing weight and losing to Jim Miller in his lightweight debut. Alves is a high level Muay Thai striker with some absolutely sizzling kicks; his body kick finish of Jordan Mein reminded us all of that. He has clearly lost a step recently and his output seems to be decreasing with each fight, but he remains a potent counter puncher.
Canadian Patrick Cote is enjoying a decent late career resurgence. He has won 6 of his last 8 fights with his only losing coming to divisional standouts Wonderboy Thompson and Cowboy Cerrone. Cote’s greatest weapon is his size; he is a big, physically imposing welterweight. On the feet he likes to fight at distance, working behind a jab with powerful counters and leg kicks. His ground game is rudimentary but effective, relying on strength to draw fights to the mat and land powerful shots. He also showed in his fight against 10th Planet black belt, Ben Saunders that his submission game is not to be underestimated.
Prediction: This is my pick for fight of the night. While Cote has showed a greater propensity for takedowns in recent outings; I think both fighters are going to be content to duke it out on the feet. Both have gaping defence and powerful offense so a finish is likely. If Cote does look for takedowns, he should be able to find them, but I expect him to aggressively chase a finish on the ground with strikes. I had originally planned to bet to Cote, but I think betting the fight not to go to decision at plus money represents the better value. Patrick Cote by 2nd TKO
TIP: Fight not to go to the distance- $2.20 at Ladbrokes
Will Brooks 18-2 vs Charles Oliveira 27-7
The PPV will be kicked off with an interesting stylistic match up in the UFC’s talent rich lightweight division. Will Brooks is the outspoken former Bellator lightweight champion, who vacated that title to test his skills in the premier MMA promotion. He rose to prominence after upsetting Michael Chandler in one of the biggest dollar value upsets in MMA history to claim the Bellator title. He has gone 1-1 since moving to the UFC; including a solid win over veteran Ross Pearson and a KO loss to Alex Oliveira (although Oliveira came in well over the 155 pound weight limit). Brooks is predominantly a grappler, with an emphasis on wrestling and clinch work. He is strong in top position and is good at working inside the guard to land strikes. He isn’t known for BJJ, but showed off impressive submission defence against leg lock specialist Marcin Held. On the feet he is a solid striker who works best from the outside. He has good timing and movement, but lacks KO power. He is good at using his strikes to set up his double leg.
Charles ‘do Bronx’ Oliveira is one of the most exciting submission artists in the sport. Eight out of his nine UFC victories have come by submission and he has won the submission of the night bonus an incredible 6 times. His record contains submissions by reverse calf slicer, anaconda choke and Peruvian neck tie; testament to his crafty and aggressive style. Unlike most high level grapplers, Oliveira is quite susceptible to being submitted himself; due in most part to his willingness to pull guard and chase Hail Mary submissions. He has decent kicks, but is quite awkward on the feet. He likes to push forward and initiate clinches where he can use his height to land knees or pull guard. Oliveira is very tall for the division and fights very upright, leaving his chin worryingly exposed. He has lost 3 of his last 4 fights (albeit against elite level competition) and has been forced to make the move up to lightweight after badly missing weight in his last fight.
Prediction: On paper Oliveira has all the skills to be one of the best fighters in the division, but he has not been able to put it together to this point and he seems too ready to give up when things are not going his way. He will no doubt be the more dangerous fighter here, but Brooks is definitely the more reliable. I expect this to look a lot like he Oliveira vs Frankie Edgar fight, with Oliveira spending long portions getting controlled on the bottom. Oliveira obviously has the ability to get a finish, but I think the more likely outcome is Brooks out pointing him over 3 rounds. Will Brooks by 30-27 decision.
TIP: Will Brooks by decision - $2.55 at Ladbrokes
Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
