UFC 206 Preview & Betting Tips

Wedged between the UFC’s debut in New York City and its massive New Year’s Eve show, UFC 206 lacks the big name star power of a usual PPV. But the card is stacked with intriguing stylistic match ups and is headlined by an interim featherweight title fight. We have you covered with previews and betting tips for three of the big fights taking place on Sunday, the 11th of December (AEDT)

Max Holloway (#2) 16-3 vs Anthony Pettis (#5) 19-5

Interim Featherweight Title fight

The only positive to Rumble Johnson and Daniel Cormier being pulled from this card; is that now this exceptional featherweight fight will be five rounds instead of three. By knocking out the former champion in 13 seconds and then going up to lightweight, Conor McGregor left the featherweight division in disarray. Now the UFC has chosen to strip McGregor of the title due to inactivity and have handed it to former champion Jose Aldo. This fight will determine who gets the first shot at Aldo’s belt.

Raised on the rough streets of Waianae Hawaii, Max Holloway is riding an incredible nine fight win streak and is desperate to be the first man to bring the UFC to his homeland. At only 25 he has already amassed 15 UFC fights and hasn’t lost since he took McGregor to a decision in 2013. He is best described as a technical brawler, who uses active and precise striking and is excellent at using footwork to cut off opponent’s angles. He doesn’t have much of a kicking game but has aa diverse arsenal of punches which he strings together seamlessly in combination. While he has a number of TKO finishes, he is not a power puncher and tends to earn stoppages via accumulation of damage. He has barely shot an offensive takedown in his UFC career, but he does have good takedown defense and can lock up tight submissions. Holloway has great cardio and likes to fight up tempo; but he tends to be too willingly to engage in firefights which may spell danger against a striker of Pettis’ caliber.  

Anthony Pettis is the former lightweight champion and has one of the most impressive highlight reels in MMA. He is a high level taekwondo black belt who can KO opponents with a whole range of techniques. Along with the impressive striking arsenal, Pettis is a BJJ black belt and his last three wins have been by submission. He doesn’t have much of a wrestling game and his submissions tend to come from scrambles. Pettis has always struggled in fights that go to decision; his style lends it shelf to spectacular finishes rather than rounds on the judges’ cards. After losing his title and three straight fights, Pettis moved down to the featherweight division where he picked up a come from behind win over Charles Oliveria in his debut.

Prediction: This fight will most likely play out on the feet; I can’t see either of these fighters trying to implement much grappling. This is a tough style match up for Pettis. The majority of his weapons are neutralized if he is put on the back foot and that’s what Holloway does best. Pettis undoubtedly has the tools to land a knock out or grab a submission in transition, but I think those are his only two paths to victory. The rest of the fight will be Holloway pushing forward and out landing him by a big margin. This is a big weight cut for Pettis, so I don’t see him being the fresher one in the championship rounds. While I favor Holloway to win comfortably on the feet, I don’t think he will be able to get a stoppage. Pettis has never been finished by strikes and took a hellacious beating off Dos Anjos over 5 rounds without succumbing. Max Holloway by unanimous decision.

TIP: Max Hooloway by decision - $2.70 @ Ladbrokes

Donald Cerrone (#5) 31-7 vs Matt Brown (#14) 22-15

This should be an all action matchup between two violent strikers. Donald Cerrone is one of the most active strikers on the UFC’s roster. This will be his 13^th fight in the last 3 years. He has looked in career best form since making the move up to welterweight and his combination finish of Rick Story was one of the most impressive you will ever see. Cerrone is a varied striker; who is particularly dangerous with kicks. He favors leg kicks, but has put many opponents away with kicks to head and body. The biggest improvement to his game since the move to welterweight has been his grappling. He has always has good BJJ, but he seems much more comfortable wrestling at 170 pounds. Cerrone can be a slow starter and it is worrying that he will be peaking for the second time within a month after his fight at UFC 205 was scrapped at the weigh ins.

Matt brown looks like maths teacher, but he has developed a big following in the UFC due to his exciting style. Known as the immortal for his incredible ‘recoverability’, Matt Brown has started to show his age recently and suffered his first KO loss in his last outing against Jake Ellenbeger. Brown is a pressure fighter who comes forward looking to brawl. Like Cerrone, he comes from a Muay Thai background and loves throwing short sharp strikes in the clinch. Matt Brown is a solid wrestler and he used that to hand Wonderboy Thompson his only career loss. He is good from top position, but ten of his losses have come by submission and that’s an area Cerrone can exploit. Despite amassing 13 wins in the UFC, Brown has never really been in the title picture and that’s because he has consistently fallen short when taking the step up in competition.

Prediction: These two fighters have very similar styles, which makes it a hard match up for Brown, because Cerrone has an edge across the board. If Brown can dictate the tempo and he keep Cerrone on the back foot, he is capable of winning this fight. He may even get the better of the early exchanges; however as Cerrone gets into his groove I expect him to take over. I think Cerrone will outscore Brown on the feet and eventually hurt him to the body before getting a late stoppage. Donald Cerrone by 3^rd TKO.

TIP: Donald Cerrone to win + Kennedy/Gastelum over 2.5 rounds - $1.98 @ Ladbrokes 

Tim Kennedy (#10) 18-5 vs Kelvin Gastelum 13-2

Tim Kennedy might be the closet thing the UFC has to a ‘Captain America’. He has a decorated and still active career as a Green Beret sniper, is a former strikeforce middleweight title contender and the FBI have recently confirmed ISIS have made credible threats against him. He hasn’t fought in the UFC since a controversial loss to Yoel Romero in September 2014. Kelvin Gastelum is in a tough spot. An undoubtedly talented fighter, he is seemingly undersized at middleweight, but continually fails to cut down to welterweight. He recently missed weight and was pulled from his fight at UFC 205 against Cowboy Cerrone.

Prediction: While Kennedy has spent the last two years fighting for his country and filming the History channels ‘Hunting Hitler’, Gastelum has been improving in the gym and testing himself against the UFCs best. Gastelum is the more technical and active striker, so he should get the best of it on the feet. Kennedy will have a big size, wrestling and cardio advantage. I don’t expect firework in this fight, it will be a tight contest between two equally skilled opponents at the opposite end of their careers. I definitely expect this to go all three rounds and think Kennedy’s experience and grappling will see him eek out a decision on the judges’ cards. Tim Kennedy by 29-28 decision.

TIP: over 2.5 rounds + Donald Cerrone to win - $1.98 @ Ladbrokes