As promised Michael Bisping returns to his homeland with the belt around his waist and his first title defence will be against arch nemesis Dan Henderson in Manchester. Read on for our preview of that fight in our UFC 204 Betting Tips.
Michael Bisping vs Dan Henderson
In Manchester, Michael Bisping will become the first European champion to defend his belt on home soil, a feat not even Conor McGregor has been able to pull off. He is coming off back to back victories over Anderson Silva and Luke Rockhold and is in the midst of an unlikely career renaissance. There was a time when it looked very likely that Bisping might never get a shot at UFC gold. Prior to his incredible decision victory over Silva, Bisping’s UFC tenure had been hall-marked by three crushing loses in title contender fights against Vitor Belfort, Chael Sonnen and Dan Henderson. The fight most synonymous with Bisping’s career shortcomings was at the historic UFC 100 when Henderson flatlinned him with a massive right hook and then followed up with an unnecessary coffin nail.
Bisping earned the right to erase those memories with an incredible upset win over Rockhold to claim the middleweight title. Rockhold had so many massive advantages, but noticing his opponent getting carless, Bisping planted and exploded into an excellent counter left hook to earn the finish. Bisping has consistently shown off fight to fight improvement and even at 37 is adding new wrinkles to his game under the guidance of Jason Parillo. Primarily a kickboxer, Bisping controls distance and creates angles with effective footwork and likes to pick apart opponents from the outside. He has good kicks, but does his best work is down with his hands. There is no greater testament to Bisping’s striking than when he outboxed Anderson Silva over 5 rounds. He has underrated takedown defence and having trained Brazilian Ju Jitsu since the age of 8 has an uncanny ability to get back to his feet. His conditioning is always excellent and while not known for one punch power, is excellent at turning up the pace on a compromised opponent to force a stoppage.
It has to be said that there are a number of more qualified fighters to get this title shot and Dan Henderson is clearly in this spot because of the heat he and Bisping bring. That aside, Henderson finally getting his shot at the one belt that has eluded him, in his final bout before retirement is a perfect way to cap off one of the all-time great MMA careers. In a career spanning 25 years, Henderson has wrestled at NCAA division 1 and Olympic level, held belts in multiple weight divisions in Pride and Strikefore and owns a victory of the great Fedor Emelianenko at heavyweight. His MMA game has never really been about offensive wrestling, but instead uses his incredible Greco Roman base to keep the fight standing and trade punches. The majority of his wins have come by knockout and usually in brutal fashion. He is most effective trading short, sharp punches in the pocket where his rigid stance allows him to generate tremendous power. At distance his offense is usually limited to leg kicks and he tends to be very inactive. Henderson has not looked good in his recent octagon appearances, he has taken beatings even in his loses and he starts to slow down early in the second round. At 46, his skills and physical tools are clearly deteriorating and his once infamous chin is no longer something he can rely on. However he continues to show off amazing power and his last three victories have come by KO. He earned his opportunity with a come from behind victory against Hector Lombard in which he reminded everyone just how dangerous he can be.
Prediction: This fight almost feels like the UFC is giving Michael Bisping a well-earned ‘thank you’ for all the hard work he did in growing the sport in the UK. His first title defence is a chance to avenge a signature loss and he gets to avoid all the killers waiting for him at the top of the division’s rankings. Bisping is undefeated in the UK and this will be an adoring home crowd; watch for him to play to the Manchester City fans with his choice of walkout music. Henderson obviously has the tools to get a KO and Bisping has far from perfect striking defence. But if Bisping can avoid the big shot, he will find a lot of success on the feet, particularly as Henderson starts to fade. There is a risk that Bisping might overextend looking for revenge, but these are two seasoned pros so I don’t expect either to fight recklessly based on emotion. Ultimately I just don’t have faith that Henderson can go 5 rounds, especially at Bisping’s pace. Michael Bisping by 3rd round TKO.
Bet: Michael Bisping by KO - $2.00 at Sportsbet
Vitor Belfort (#5) 25-12 vs Gegard Mousai (#9) 39-6
This should be an interesting matchup between two talented but very different strikers. Former DREAM and Strikeforce champion Gegard Mousai is one of the most technical fighters in the division. He is an economical striker who works behind a strong jab and throws accurate shots from the outside. He is also a dangerous grappler with solid submissions and brutal elbows from top position. His black belt in Judo gives him an excellent ability to control where the fight takes place. Sometimes criticised for lack of killer instinct; Mousai’s shock loss to Uriah Hall seems to have lit a fire under him and his first round KO of Thiago Santos in July was his best UFC performance to date.
Surprisingly for a fighter who’s every UFC win has come by KO, Belfort is a very low output striker and his fights often have long periods of inactivity. But when he does choose to throw it’s always spectacular. Belfort is an explosive counter fighter with a powerful left hand and varied and dangerous kicking game. He has finished Michael Bisping, Dan Henderson and Luke Rockhold all with headkick KOs. While this blitzkrieg style has worked well; Belfort always tires if the initial barrage doesn’t put his opponent away and has won only one fight that has gone past the first round and a half. Belfort’s age and increased drug testing have only magnified this issue. Belfort’s grappling defence is also very poor; he usually attempts to throw strikes from the bottom rather than defend submissions or look to better his position.
Prediction: Belfort’s ridiculous offensive means he has a puncher’s chance against anyone he fights. Mousai is the much more technical striker and his excellent striking defence will put him in good stead to avoid the Belfort power punches. I think Mousai will be able to frustrate Belfort by keeping him at the end of his jab and once Belfort gets reckless, Mousai will be able to force the fight to the ground and from there should quickly secure a finish. But I think the price is too steep for Mousai against a guy like Belfort, so I’m going to rely on Belfort’s kill or be killed mentality and play the under. Gegard Mousai by 1st round TKO
Bet: Under 2.5 rounds multi’d with Struve Over 1.5 rounds - $2.31 at Ladbrokes
Ovince St. Preux (#5) 19-8 vs Jimi Manuwa (#8) 15-2
This is a bout between two athletic, hard hitting light heavyweights who have been unable to translate their physical tools into wins against top calibre opposition. OSP is former standout collegiate footballer who exploded onto the MMA scene in Strikeforce. He fights from southpaw and throws powerful kicks and punches, but rarely in combination. He is a strong wrestler, but has significant technical grappling flaws. Despite a loss, he earned a lot of admirer’s in his last outing where he took Jon Jones to a decision and endured the last two rounds with a broken arm.
Englishman Jimi Manuwa is a dangerous striker who has 13 career wins by KO. He came into the UFC with a lot of hype and started off with three straight wins, but has been exposed against the next level of competition. Manuwa is one of the few fighters who hit harder than OSP and he has particularly heavy leg kicks. His strength and size make him difficult to takedown, but he is susceptible on the ground.
Prediction: This is a tough one to pick between two wildly inconsistent fighters. Manuwa has a slight edge in striking and the clinch, but OSP is the far superior wrestler. Either fighter has the tools to end it quickly or win and entertaining back and forth decision. In a toss-up fight, I’m happy to get on the harder hitting Jimi Manuwa as an underdog in front of his passionate hometown support. Jimi Manuwa by 3rd TKO
Tip: Jimi Manuwa to win - $2.38 at Ladbrokes
Stefan Struve (#12) 31-8 vs Daniel Omielanczuk (#14) 19-5
This fight pits together 7 foot tall Dutchmen Stefan Struve and 6 foot tall Polak Daniel Omielanczuk. The freakshow aspect aside, this is a pretty standard fight between two run of the mill heavyweights. Struve debuted in the UFC as a 21 year old and now at only 28 has 17 UFC fights to his name. That has garnered him a lot of experience, but also resulted in some brutal beatings and the physical effects of those appear to be taking their toll. Struve comes from a kickboxing background, but infuriatingly for a man of his size doesn’t fight long, preferring to exchange in the pockets. He is slowly becoming better at using his reach under the tutelage of Henri Hooft, but there remains a ways to go. He is going at using his long limbs to lock in submissions, but has almost no wrestling.
Daniel Omielanczuk is pretty well rounded for a heavyweight, but lacks the finishing ability of his contemporizes. He strikes decently in combination and has a number of submission wins to his name. He has the kind of innate wrestling ability you would expect from a man of his dimensions. His most outstanding feature might be his cardio, but even that may be hampered due to him taking this bout on short notice.
Prediction: Struve has an enormous reach advantage over an opponent who has always struggled to close this distance, so you would expect him to be a bigger favourite here. But he has too career loses to even shorter opponents in Mark Hunt and Roy Nelson. Omielanczuk is definitely a live dog, but I expect this to be a sloppy, slow paced heavyweight scrap and will be playing the over. Stefan Struve by 29-28 decision.
Tip: Over 1.5 rounds multi’d with Belfort Under 2.5 rounds – $2.31 at Ladbrokes
Mirsad Betkic 10-0 vs Russell Doane 14-6
Bosnian Mirsad Bektic is one of the most promising prospects in the stacked featherweight division. He steamrolled his last two UFC opponents, but has been sidelined for the past 16 months following knee surgery. He comes from a wrestling background, but has explosive power in his hands. He is a fantastic grappler with excellent top control and dangerous ground and pound. His opponent, Russell Doane is currently riding a 3 fight losing streak and is taking this fight on only 5 days’ notice after Arnold Allen was injured. Not only does Doane have just 5 days to prepare, he also has to fly to Manchester from Hawaii and will be severely undersized as he usually fights at batamnweight.
Prediction: Any concerns over Betkic’s time off are nullified by Doane’s short notice. Betkic should comfortably win this fight. The odds are far too short to take Betkic straight, but you can get a generous price for the under 2.5 rounds. Mirsad Betkic by 1st round TKO
Tip: Under 2.5 rounds - $2.20 at Sportsbet
Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
