The Titans finally got their first win of the season last week, and their prize is a home matchup with the Melbourne Storm, who are fresh off their fourth straight win. Despite the Titans looking far better over the past month of football, they are about to get a reality check this week I feel, against a Storm side that is humming towards the mid-point of the season.
Below, we will dissect the matchup, supply our Best Bet, and suggest a Same Game Multi. Be sure to head over to our NRL Tips page regularly, as we preview every single game all season long, for free!
Also, if you’re new to sports betting or betting on the NRL, check out the following articles to help build your knowledge:
- Guide to Betting on the NRL
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- Factors to Consider When Betting on the NRL
2024 NRL Round 9 Preview & Betting Tips
Gold Coast Titans vs Melbourne Storm
Cbus Super Stadium, Saturday 4th May, 5:30pm (AEST)
Last Week
As mentioned, the Titans finally got off the mark last week, with a scintillating 27-24 victory over the Warriors in Auckland. They nearly blew it, leading 27-12 with just over 20 minutes remaining, only to concede two quick tries for the scoreline to close to 27-24. They held on though, in a thoroughly deserved win, after they have shown much better form over the past month. AJ Brimson was terrific at the back, scoring two tries and running for 186 metres, whilst David Fifita looks back to his best after a slow start to the season.
As for the Storm, they put on a clinic offensively against the Rabbitohs, rounding out 54-20 winners at home. Aside from a 10-minute period in the second half where the Rabbitohs scored three quick tries, the Storm dominated the matchup, making 9 line-breaks to 5, whilst missing just 17 tackles. Cam Munster easily played his best game of the season, setting up four tries and scoring one himself. If this is the Munster we see going forward, look out Titans.
Match Preview
These teams met twice last season, with the Titans getting the better of the Storm in round 3 at home 38-34, in a fantastic back-and-forth affair. The Storm closed 6.5-point favourites, whilst the total closed 42.5. The Storm got their revenge in round 26 at home, thumping the Titans 37-16, after closing massive 20.5-point favourites, whilst the total had been bumped all the way up to 49.5.
As for this week, the Storm opened 13.5-point favourites, and they have taken on some money this week, to where it looks like they will move to 14.5-point favourites before the game kicks off. It’s one of those games where I think the number is just about right, and I don’t see a tonne of value in the spread here.
As for the total, it opened 45.5, with the over taking some money to wear the over 45.5 is heavily juiced. There’s a chance this closes 46 or 46.5, and I don’t agree with the move completely, however totals are generally up across the NRL after some of the scores the past few weeks. I would lean under, but won’t be betting it until later, as the number continues to go up.
The way the Storm’s attack has been improving over the past two weeks, I like the chances of them to get over their team total, which currently sits around 28.5/29.5. The Storm have shown they can score points in bunches, but also concede at times, hence why I’ll steer clear of the spread.
Storm (team total) over 28.5
$1.90 (2 Units)
Same Game Multi
W Warbrick (1+ try) – Warbrick will be the point of attack this weekend for the Storm with no Coates. Added to this, the Titans concede 43% of their tries on the left.
AJ Brimson (1+ try) – AJ Brimson is the attacking spark for this team at fullback, and if they’re to have any chance at winning, they need him to shine. Good value for a try this week.
Under 53.5 points – As above, I’m tempted by the under, and this alternate under really pumps the price of the multi up.
SGM Odds: $12.86 at Neds
