Super Saturday in the NRL kicks off with a season defining clash for the Broncos, as last year’s Grand Finalists head down the Pacific Highway to take on the Titans at Robina. After their last start loss, the Broncos now sit 13th on the ladder, four points off the 8th placed Dolphins, with their finals hopes hanging by a thread. It won’t get any easier this week, as they take on a Titans team that has stepped up their performances in the second half of the season and sit just one place below the Broncos. Ben Bridge brings you his best bets for the clash!
2024 NRL Round 22 Preview & Betting Tips
Gold Coast Titans vs Brisbane Broncos
Cbus Super Stadium, Saturday 3rd August, 3:00pm (AEST)
Last Week
The Titans headed to Suncorp Stadium last Sunday afternoon to take on the Dolphins, in a game they were not expected to win. Both teams lived up to these expectations early, as the Dolphins looked like taking a 14-0 lead into halftime, before a try from Brian Kelly two minutes out from the break brought the Titans right back into the game. Three unanswered second half tries sealed a great comeback victory for the Titans, as they dominated the Dolphins throughout the second 40. They had contributors from all over the park, with four players (Kini, Sami, Fotuaika, Fifita) running for 200+ metres, whilst another five Titans ran for over 100 metres. This Titans team is playing some great football.
As for the Broncos, they put in possibly their worst 80 minutes of the season last weekend, as they were trounced 41-16 by the Bulldogs at Suncorp Stadium. It was a terrible display from a team that came into the season as the second favourites for the Premiership, running for only 1223 metres, whilst conceding 11 linebreaks and 1846 metres. In a game that was tough to find a bright spot for the Broncos, Patrick Carrigan was his usual busy self, running for 175 metres and making 37 tackles through the middle. There were some dreadful performances across the park, and the spotlight must surely be brightening on Kevvie Walters as a Head Coach, as he stares down the barrel of three years out of four missing the finals.
Match Preview
The Broncos and Titans met in round 12 at Suncorp Stadium, with the Broncos closing massive 16.5-point favourites. However, it was the Titans who prevailed, winning 36-34 in a track meet which saw 13 tries in total being scored. The Titans were easily the better side statistically, and it confirmed that the Titans were no longer overawed when taking on the Broncos, winning their second in a row at Suncorp. The total closed 50.5 and was never in doubt of sailing over.
Prior to last weekend’s matchups, the Broncos opened massive 10.5-point road favourites for this clash, however after both teams’ performances last weekend, the Broncos re-opened just 7.5-point favourites for this matchup. Money has continued to pour in on the Titans, as they are now just 4.5-point underdogs for this clash. It’s hard to disagree with the move, as the Broncos look horrible right now, whilst the Titans are streaking and playing some inspired football. I make the Broncos 6.5-point favourites but can easily get around the Titans being shorter.
As for the total, it opened 52.5, where it remains at the time of writing. My fair total is well below this at 47.5, however I can definitely see points being scored in this game on a sunny Saturday afternoon on the Gold Coast. I would lean under based purely on numbers; however, I won’t be betting it.
So, a tough game to handicap here. If you got on the Titans early at +10.5, it’s getting to the point where you can try and middle this game, especially if this gets to 3.5 or less. However, as this number is no longer available, I’ll take a shot at this game being tight and to remain within a two converted try margin. The Broncos don’t look likely to blow a team off the park right now, and with their season on the line I can’t see the Titans doing it to the Broncos either. So, an either team by 1-12 margin is the bet here.
Either team (1-12) margin
$1.82 (2 Units)
Same Game Multi
K Staggs (1+ try) – Staggs has been in good form lately and will be attacking the weaker left edge of the Titans. If this game turns into another track meet, Staggs should snag a try here.
B Kelly (1+ try) – The Titans’ left edge has been scintillating of late, and whilst Khan-Pereira has been the beneficiary of most of the tries down the left, expect Kelly to snatch one.
A Khan-Pereira (1+ try) – The Broncos left edge defence is horrible, and with AKP seemingly scoring at will, this is an easy leg to add.
SGM Odds: $17 at Bet365
