Sunday arvo footy kicks off in Southwest Sydney, as the Tigers host the Dragons at Campbelltown Sports Stadium. What looked like being a battle for the wooden spoon at the start of the season, both teams have been better than expected so far, and this should be a great contest between two evenly matched teams.
Below, we will dissect the matchup, supply our Best Bet, and suggest a Same Game Multi. Be sure to head over to our NRL Tips page regularly, as we preview every single game all season long, for free!
Also, if you’re new to sports betting or betting on the NRL, check out the following articles to help build your knowledge:
- Guide to Betting on the NRL
- Where to Bet on the NRL
- Factors to Consider When Betting on the NRL
2024 NRL Round 6 Preview & Betting Tips
Wests Tigers vs St George Illawarra Dragons
Campbelltown Sports Stadium, Sunday 14th March, 4:05pm (AEST)
Last Week
The Tigers took on the surging Dolphins last week at Suncorp Stadium without stud rookie five-eighth Lachlan Galvin, and were never really in the contest, going down 26-16. The Tigers weren’t terrible, but the consistency of the Dolphins was too much, as the Wayne Bennett-led Titans completed 89% of their sets, whilst making just 5 errors in total. It was a disappointing result for the Tigers, who had shown solid form in the two weeks prior, with wins over the Sharks and Eels.
As for the Dragons, they continued their yo-yoing start to the season, going down 30-10 to the Knights on the road in horrific conditions. The Dragons’ discipline was terrible, making 18 errors, completing at just 66%. The Dragons are so far 1-2 on the road, and now head to Campbelltown for their second straight road game, looking to get off the bottom part of the table.
Match Preview
The Dragons and Tigers met twice last year, with two tightly contested matchups playing out. In round 10, Magic Round, the Tigers got the better of the Dragons 18-16, after the Dragons closed as slight 1-point favourites. In round 21, the Tigers headed to Wollongong, where the Dragons got their revenge, winning 18-14 as 4.5-point home favourites. The total for both games closed 44.5, with both easily going under the total.
The Tigers opened 2.5-point favourites at home for this matchup, with Dragons money coming in to the extent where this game is basically a pick em’ right now. I rate these teams as extremely close in my power ratings, and as such like the Tigers to win this game at home. Home field advantage has been quite high this season, with 31 out of 41 home teams winning this season. Yes, the loss of Galvin is important, but I believe the Tigers have the better spine, better forward pack, and there are clearly issues at the Dragons regarding some of their players and new Head Coach Shane Flanagan. Flanagan hooked Tyrell Sloan last week at halftime, whilst Zac Lomax has already been told he can leave at the end of the season. The Tigers should get the job done here at home.
As for the total, it opened 42.5 and has been bet up slightly to 43.5. The Tigers are the only team this season who 100% of their matches have gone under the total. I would very much lean under, particularly with the loss of Galvin, however the Dragons have been all over the place with their attack, so I cannot trust what sort of score the Dragons will put on.
So, we will take the Tigers to win. At near pick em’ odds, this seems like terrific value to me on the home side.
Tigers to Win
$1.91 (1 Unit)
Same Game Multi
J Olam (1+ try) – Olam has looked deadly on the left edge for the Tigers, and with the Dragons right edge defence looking like the worst in the league, expect plenty of sweeping plays to the left from the Tigers.
T Sloan (1+ try) – Sloan needs a big game after being hooked last week, with rumours circulating that Zac Lomax is set to take over at fullback. Expect Sloan to pop up all over the park.
Either team to win by 1-12 (margin) – Two evenly matched teams, this should be a tight one, with either team winning by more than two converted tries surely a surprise.
SGM Odds: $9.89 at Neds
