Magic Round is brought to a close with a matchup between the 15th placed Tigers, and the high-flying Dolphins, who currently occupy 4th spot on the ladder. The Tigers have lost six straight and are in desperate need of a win, however their luck doesn’t seem to have changed, with the Dolphins welcoming back superstar fullback Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow for Magic Round.
Below, we will dissect the matchup, supply our Best Bet, and suggest a Same Game Multi. Be sure to keep up to head over to our NRL Tips page regularly, as we preview every single game all season long, for free!
Also, if you’re new to sports betting or betting on the NRL, check out the following articles to help build your knowledge:
- Guide to Betting on the NRL
- Where to Bet on the NRL
- Factors to Consider When Betting on the NRL
NRL Round 11 Preview & Betting Tips
Wests Tigers vs The Dolphins
Suncorp Stadium, Sunday 19th May, 6:25pm (AEST)
Last Week
As mentioned, the Tigers lost their sixth straight last week, as they went down 20-14 to the Knights in Tamworth. The Tigers never really looked like getting the win, despite always being within striking distance of the Knights, with their attack continuing to be the most impotent in the league, averaging just 14.8 points per game. The defence of the Tigers has definitely improved upon last season; however, their attack has gone nowhere. To add insult to injury, they have lost John Bateman and Starford To’a to injury, as well as Isaiah Papali’i to suspension. It must really suck to be a Tigers fan right now.
As for the Dolphins, they won their second straight last week, as they stormed back from being down 16-4 to the Sea Eagles, winning 30-24. The Dolphins welcomed back Herbie Farnworth, who was straight back into form, running for 161 metres, 6 tackles breaks, as well as setting up a try. The stats last week against the Sea Eagles were extremely tight, which is positive for the Dolphins, given the Sea Eagles looked like a top 4 team early in the season, particularly in attack. It shows the Dolphins are well ahead of where they were last season and are a genuine top 4 chance this season.
Match Preview
The Tigers and Dolphins have already met once this season, back in round 5 at this very venue, Suncorp Stadium. There, the Dolphins closed as 5.5-point favourites, before running out 26-16 winners. The stats were close, however as has been the case most of the season, the Tigers’ attack hasn’t been able to execute when needed most. As for the total, it closed 43.5 and was pretty much spot on.
This week, the Dolphins opened 7.5-point favourites, and have been bet up aggressively to 11.5-point favourites. I’m fully on board with this move, and I make the Dolphins 12.5-point favourites for this game. Once again, the spread seems spot on, with no value presenting itself in this market for mine.
The total, however, is somewhere I’m looking to bet this game. The total opened 45.5 and has been bet up to 47.5. I do not agree with the move, and anyone that has watched the Tigers this season would more than likely agree. In fact, in the Tigers 9 games this season, each and every one has gone under the closing total. The concern is clearly the Dolphins attack, which has shown this season that they can score from anywhere. I’m concerned that if the Tigers get behind early, the Dolphins could hit this total by themselves.
So then, we look towards the Tigers team total, which is currently teetering around the 17.5 mark. If you can find under 18.5, I love this play, with the Tigers only reaching 20+ points once this season, all the way back in round 3, and haven’t scored 18+ since. Whilst the Dolphins’ defence isn’t exactly a brick wall, they should be good enough to hold the Tigers to less than four tries in the final game of the week.
Wests Tigers (team total) under 17.5
$1.94 (1.5 Units)
Same Game Multi
H Tabuai-Fidow (1+ try) – The Hammer is back, in Magic Round, against the Tigers. As if he’s NOT going to score a try.
J Bostock (1+ try) – Bostock has 8 tries in 9 games this season, and this week gets to take on the weak Tigers right side defence, which has conceded 45% of all tries this year.
A Seyfarth (1+ try) – Bit of a flyer here to really get the odds up, Seyfarth has tries in his last two games against the Dolphins.
SGM Odds: $17.67 at Neds
