What a cracking season it’s been and it all comes down to the last Saturday in September! The Sydney Swans and the Brisbane Lions have earned the right to face off in the big dance, and It’s certainly a fitting matchup considering these sides are the two most recent runners-up. Who will make amends and win the 2024 AFL Premiership? We bring you our thoughts and best bets for the match below!
2024 AFL Grand Final Preview & Betting Tips
Sydney vs Brisbane
MCG, Saturday 28th September, 2:30pm (AEST)
Weather: 22 degrees, partly cloudy, moderate winds
Odds: Sydney ($1.74) vs Brisbane ($2.08)
Line: Sydney -3.5
Points: 172.5
Sydney have looked like the team to beat since very early on in the year so it’s only fitting they have the opportunity to compete in the final game of the season. They won 13 of their first 14 games before losing their focus for a six-week period, but have now got their game back in full flight and look well poised to produce their best on Saturday.
The Swans were far too good for the Power in their home preliminary final last weekend, defeating them by 36 points (95-59). It was quite the turnaround after losing to the Power by a whopping 112 points just five games prior.
The Swans coaching staff had some big decisions to make at selection this week, as do all teams at this stage of the season. However, they’ve opted to go in unchanged from the side that won last weekend, which means captain Callum Mills will miss despite getting through training this week. Taylor Adams also misses Grand Final selection for the second straight year.
Brisbane have had to overcome some serious adversity this season to make it to the Grand Final for the second year in a row. They began the year with just two wins from their first seven games and four wins up until Round 13, yet here they are back in the big dance.
The Lions finals campaign certainly hasn’t been one for the faint-hearted and their fans have been taken on quite the rollercoaster. They looked down and out against the Giants before producing a miraculous comeback in the semi-finals, and had to dig deep once again vs the Cats last weekend.
The Lions have had to deal with a number of injuries to key players in 2024 and suffered another big blow last outing when ruckman Oscar McInerney dislocated his shoulder. And despite his best efforts to play through the pain against the Cats, he was eventually subbed out and won’t be taking part on Saturday. Instead, Darcy Fort gets his chance as the #1 ruck.
Match Prediction: These clubs have had completely different paths to make it here. The Swans have looked destined for the Grand Final for months now, while almost everyone had written off the Lions at some stage.
The Swans will certainly be the fresher of the two teams considering they earned the week off in the second week of finals and have had considerably easier wins compared to the Lions who have had to continually dig deep. How much more do the Lions have left in the tank?
Regardless, I like the Swans here. They now have a huge advantage in the ruck and their midfield is as dangerous as it gets when they get first dibs. They’ve been the best team all year for a reason and while the Lions have been brave to make it back to the last Saturday in September, I think the Swans will take control and prove to be too much to handle.
Sydney -3.5
$1.90 (2 Units)
Grand Final Prop Bets
Norm Smith Medal
It’s all about The Chad in this market for me. He’s a big game player and we saw that in the 2022 Grand Final when he was pretty much the only Swan that played a ripper in their heavy loss to the Cats. He had 29 touches and 2 goals that day and Luke Parker (23 disposals) was the only other Swan with 20+. You can also bank on Josh Dunkley sitting on Isaac Heeney all day which should quell his influence for a touch, so I’m happy to take the $8 about Warner here. If you think the Lions will win, then Lachie Neale is at $8 and Cam Rayner ($18) and Joe Daniher ($23) are solid roughies.
TIP: Chad Warner Norm Smith ($8.00 at Ladbrokes)
Total Points
Great footy weather is forecasted for Saturday and that suits both of these clubs who love to run the gauntlet and play an attacking brand. The Swans were the highest scoring team this season at nearly 100 points per game the and the Lions were not too far behind. On top of that, the Swans have put up 88+ in each of their last five and the Lions have scored 87+ in four straight. Simply put, I’m expecting an old-fashioned shootout that should see the overs hit in the total points market.
TIP: Over 172.5 Points ($1.90 at Neds)
1st Quarter Betting
While I like the Swans to win, they are genuinely slow starters. They’ve won only 4 first quarters from their last 16 games, while the Lions have remarkably only lost 4 first quarters for the entire season. Further, the Lions were comfortably in the lead at quarter time when these teams met earlier this season.
TIP: Brisbane to Win 1st Quarter ($2.00 at Ladbrokes)
