The cream has risen to the top for semi-final time in Super Rugby Pacific with the ACT Brumbies offering the last hope for Australian success.
The Brumbies headed to Hamilton and grabbed wins in 2020 and 2022 so that tells you they are not daunted by the Chiefs.
We tipped the Brumbies at $2 to beat the Hurricanes in the quarter-finals and picked up two further collects on the Queensland Reds to be close at half-time ($1.95) and a Mark Telea try-Blues win by 13-pts plus ($1.94).
Let’s take a closer look at how the semi-finals shape up.
2023 Super Rugby Pacific: Semi-finals Preview & Betting Tips
Crusaders v Blues
Fri, June 16 Orangetheory Stadium, Christchurch 5.05pm (AEST)
The Crusaders have won 17 of their last 18 games against the Blues. That’s a huge stat regardless of this vintage of Blues side finding stride in 2022-23.
The finals is when the real Crusaders stand up and so do many of their All Blacks.
Having flyhalf Richie Mo’unga on a final mission before heading to Japan post-World Cup means he wants to go out with a bang. Coach Scott Robertson will feel the same before he becomes All Blacks coach next year. Equally, you can say the same about Blues trump Beauden Barrett.
The Crusaders have so many gears. They monstered the Fijian Drua with rolling maul efficiency in the quarter-finals.
They’ll be happy to defend, frustrate and counter-punch against the Blues as well as strike when the moment is there.
No Sam Whitelock is a big missing piece.
The Blues lost last year’s final to the Crusaders in Auckland. That has given them some steel for a return bout in the 2023 semi-finals.
Winger Mark Telea has had a brilliant season. No one has come close to beating the 97 defenders he has eluded this season en route to his 12 tries.
So many pointers say “Crusaders” but we’re tipping a Blues’ upset.
Blues to Win
$2.40 (3 Units)
Chiefs v ACT Brumbies
Sat, June 17 FMG Stadium, Hamilton, 5.05pm (AEST)
The Queensland Reds have given the Brumbies a few pointers on how to topple the Chiefs.
Kicking for territory, pressuring defence and applying strong set piece acid were all part of the Reds leading with 11 minutes to play in their quarter-final.
The numbers of kicks was way up at over 90 for the quarter-final between the Reds and Chiefs.
The Chiefs kick more than any other side at 29 kicks per game but they kicked 49 times against the Reds. The Reds booted it back just as often (46) and also gained advantage from three 50-22 kicks.
The Brumbies have a better set piece on paper than the Reds, tackle as well, can kick just as well and have a more fluent attack with more strike players. That gives them the weapons to beat the Chiefs but they still have to pick their moments. It has to be the Reds’ recipe with the Brumbies’ own special sauce.
The Chiefs will risk more on attack against the Brumbies than they did against the Reds so they will have learnt some lessons too.
Brumbies flyhalf Jack Debrezceni had a fine quarter-final. Whether the journeyman can back it up in a city where he played some footy is pressure only he knows.
Certainly, Chiefs playmaker Damian McKenzie is more reliable and capable of the X-factor play to decide any game.
The Brumbies will be up for the physical battle which means Rob Valetini leading the way. This will be a fascinating match.
The Brumbies are at a ridiculous quote at $4.50 to win with Ladbrokes when $2.75 might be closer.
There’s value then in taking the Brumbies with 11.5pts start at $1.93.
A Lachie Lonergan Anytime Try at $2.20 (TAB) is appealing because of his rolling maul knack for tries off 5m lineouts.
Brumbies to Win
$4.50 (3 Units)
