Week 2 of the 2023 NRL Finals are here and four teams will remain after these fixtures, with teams moving within one win of the Grand Final. Last week produced exciting NRL action, with fans on the edge of their seats in most contests. Regardless of who you follow, any fan of rugby league loves this time of year. The first game this weekend will take place down in Melbourne, with the Storm hosting the Roosters in a Semi Final. Both teams have a phenomenal history in the Finals and will want to be at their best here.
As always, Before You Bet is here with a comprehensive preview of the NRL action ahead, with the aim of finding you a winner or two this weekend with our NRL betting tips!
2023 NRL Semi Final Preview & Betting Tips
Melbourne Storm vs Sydney Roosters
AAMI Park, Friday 15th September, 7:50pm (AEST)
The Storm headed to Brisbane to face the Broncos and prior to kick off, were in with a chance of causing an upset. Once the game started, there was a clear difference between the two sides. Despite keeping things tight in the first half, trailing 8-nil at the break, they were outclassed in the second half, eventually defeated 26-nil. Being kept scoreless will undoubtedly impact their confidence. It is no surprise that this was the case though as the Storm were behind in all key areas. With 48% possession, they completed at just 67%, made fewer metres and pcm’s and had just 1 line break. Their effort in defence was worse, missing 57 tackles and allowing 5 line breaks. A drastic change is needed ahead of this game. The Roosters won their way through to this game with a gutsy 13-12 win over the Sharks on the road. Kept scoreless in the first half, the Roosters faced a horror run of luck in the second half and were forced to produce something special. They lifted when required and produced an exciting finish, which saw terrific individual efforts to stop their opponents’ shots at field goal. They didn’t help their cause of winning the contest by having 49% possession and completing at 74%, which lead to fewer total metres. Their defence was strong though, missing fewer tackles (53 vs 38) and committing fewer errors (15 vs 12). This will be tougher, especially with a mounting injury toll testing their depth.
Both teams have their fair share of injuries to overcome to field a competitive team, with the Roosters arguably worse off. This has led to the Storm being listed as favourites ($1.26 vs $3.90). They have won 8 of the past 10 against the Roosters, including their 2 meetings in 2023. Each of those results were 13+ victories to the Storm (Round 20 – Roosters 16 vs Storm 30 & Round 8 – Storm 28 vs Roosters 8), with the Storm outplaying their opponents by strangling them out of the match with rigid defence. This is somewhat ironic, as they were let down in this area in their match against the Broncos. They have also performed better across the season on both sides of the ball; they score an average of 25ppg (Roosters 19ppg) and keep their opponents to just 19ppg (Roosters 21ppg). The trip down to Melbourne will also be a tough one. The Storm have a 75% record at home with the Roosters winning just 4 games at 36%. If the Roosters take a similar siege mentality that they did last week into this game, they will be a chance; the Sharks failed to take their opportunities when it counted. It will be a different case this week, especially with the Storm aiming to bounce back from a poor performance. The home side is the better of the two teams. They have a stronger set of forwards who will be well supported by their outside backs. The edge defence of the Roosters will be relentlessly pressured. Even with their fair share of attacking opportunities, they will require multiple passages of individual brilliance to get them through this match. The line has been well set at 11.5 points but given the defensive question marks over the visitors, it may become too much towards the end of this match. A similar game to their other two meetings this year is expected; a tight first half with the Storm pulling away the longer the match goes.
Storm -11.5
$1.90 (2 units)
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Leg 1: Storm 13+
Leg 2: R Smith to Score
Leg 3: Olam to to Score
The first selection is adding a little more value than the Suggested Bet. As for the two try scorers, Coates, who is absent for this fixture, has scored 6 tries on his edge against the Roosters this season. They are a vulnerable team here and will be further tested in this game. Expect both Smith and Olam to be in with a strong chance of scoring when they attack close to the line.
SGM Odds: $7.50 at Picklebet (0.5 Units)
