The Rabbitohs have kicked off the season much like their 2023 season ended, with the Bunnies winning just 5 of their past 22 games of football, including 1 of 6 this season. Things don’t get any easier for the Rabbitohs off the bye, as they head to Melbourne to take on the Storm on ANZAC Day. The Storm have been relentless this season, starting the season 5-1 to sit 2nd on the ladder.
Below, we will dissect the matchup, supply our Best Bet, and suggest a Same Game Multi. Be sure to head over to our NRL Tips page regularly, as we preview every single game all season long, for free!
Also, if you’re new to sports betting or betting on the NRL, check out the following articles to help build your knowledge:
- Guide to Betting on the NRL
- Where to Bet on the NRL
- Factors to Consider When Betting on the NRL
2024 NRL Round 8 Preview & Betting Tips
Melbourne Storm vs South Sydney Rabbitohs
AAMI Park, Thursday 25th April, 7:50pm (AEST)
Last Week
The Storm headed to Sydney to take on the Roosters last Thursday night, closing small 2.5-point favourites in the heavyweight clash. In a back-and-forth battle, the Storm were able to get the win 18-12, with the most telling statistic being the 6-1 line-break advantage for the Storm. Jahrome Hughes was massive for the visitors, scoring a try whilst setting up two line-breaks, he also did his work defensively, making a massive 30 tackles during the game. The fifth win of the season for the Storm, all by a margin of 1-12. This team just refuses to lose.
As for the Rabbitohs, they are off the bye, with their last up start in round 6 a 34-22 loss to the Sharks. A massive 45 missed tackles and 11 errors showed where the problem still lies with this team, as their discipline and professionalism continue to cost them dear. It’s surely only a matter of time before Head Coach Jason Demetriou is shown the door, with the culture at Souths toxic from the outside looking in.
Match Review
The Storm and Rabbitohs met twice last year, with the teams splitting the results. In round 5, the Storm travelled to Sydney, beating the Rabbitohs 18-10 as 5.5-point underdogs on the road. Then in round 10 (Magic Round), the Rabbitohs exacted their revenge, winning 28-12 as 1-point favourites at Suncorp Stadium. Despite the favourable results for the Rabbitohs, it must be said that both these matches happened in the first 10 weeks of the season, when the Rabbitohs were right alongside the Panthers as Premiership favourites. The Rabbitohs’ form has fallen off a cliff since this time, so there’s not much to take from these results, or these closing lines.
As for this matchup, the Storm opened 11.5-point favourites at home, with punters backing the Storm to outside two converted tries favouritism (12.5). It’s hard to argue with this move, with the Storm showing once again they are one of the top teams in the competition this season, whilst the Rabbitohs currently rated as one of the bottom 3 or 4 teams in the NRL. It’s hard to properly rate the Rabbitohs, given most would have had them as at least a league average team coming into the season, but they are playing like the worst team in the league. Even so, my numbers make the Storm value in this contest, and a Storm 13+ victory is something worth looking at.
As for the total, it opened 43.5 and hasn’t moved. I have a fair total 44.5, so don’t see a tonne of value, however I believe a fair total for the Rabbitohs should sit at 12.5, and with their number currently hovering around the 13.5/14.5 mark, I like the under. The Storm have conceded more than 14 points just twice this season, against the Warriors and Broncos, and otherwise their defence has been rock solid. The number is small though, and the Rabbitohs have enough strike power to score three tries.
So, we will stick with the Storm to win this one by margin. They haven’t managed a 13+ win this season, and coach Craig Bellamy will want his team to show they can win a game by margin. There are not many better teams to rack up a score against, and I expect the Storm to win comfortably.
Storm 13+
$1.91 (2 Units)
Same Game Multi
R Papenhuyzen (1+ try) – Papenhuyzen has scored 4 tries in 6 games to kick off the season and has scored a try in every first-grade appearance he has had against the Rabbitohs (4).
E Katoa (1+ try) – Katoa can’t stop scoring tries and coming up against a weak left edge defence this week, expect the rampaging back rower to score another try this week.
First team to score try (Storm) – Teams off the bye are struggling early in games, with five teams out of six coming off the bye conceding the first try.
SGM Odds: $7.17 at Neds
