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Storm vs Knights Preview & Betting Tips: NRL Round 14 2024

June 8th 2024, 3:56pm, By: Ben Bridge

NRL Betting Tips

The top of the table Storm get a terrific opportunity to maintain their lofty position on the ladder this weekend, as they host the Knights in Melbourne. With the Knights’ last win against the Storm in Melbourne back in 2015, expect a tough game for the Novocastrians.

Below, we will dissect the matchup, supply our Best Bet, and suggest a Same Game Multi. Be sure to keep up to date with all the NRL fixtures, as we preview every single game all season long, for free!

Also, if you’re new to sports betting or betting on the NRL, check out the following articles to help build your knowledge:

Guide to Betting on the NRL

Where to Bet on the NRL

Factors to Consider When Betting on the NRL

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2024 NRL Round 14 Preview & Betting Tips

Melbourne Storm vs Newcastle Knights

AAMI Park, Sunday 9th June, 2:00pm (AEST)

Last Week

The Storm were on the bye in round 13, with their last start a loss at the hands of the Sea Eagles in round 12, going down 26-20. It was a tight contest between two old foes, and the Storm would not have been overly disappointed with the fact they had the bye after a loss and should be well rested heading into this weekend’s matchup with the Knights. Somewhat surprisingly, the Storm only had two players involved in State of Origin, and I expect both Xavier Coates and Harry Grant to back up this weekend.

As for the Knights, they are coming off a disgraceful performance in round 13, being blown off the park at home 32-2 by the Bulldogs. After an early field goal put them up 2-0, they conceded six unanswered Bulldogs tries to be beaten convincingly. 15 errors, 31 missed tackles, 7 penalties and a sin-bin don’t mask how poorly the Knights played in all facets of the game, and without a huge improvement this week, things could once again get ugly for the Knights this weekend. The Knights had no Origin players and are therefore unaffected by players backing up.

Match Preview

The Storm and Knights have already met this season back in round 3, with the Knights prevailing 14-12 as very slight home favourites. The Storm were without both regular starting halves, and the Knights managed to grind out the victory after leading 14-0 after 48 minutes. The total was never a chance at going over, after closing 42.5.

As for this contest, the Storm opened 10.5-point favourites for this weekend’s contest prior to last weekend’s matches, before re-opening as 12.5-point favourites after the Knights’ poor display last week. The spread is still currently 12.5, which is bang on my number. Despite not seeing number-based value, I would lean heavily towards the Storm winning this game comfortably by 13+.

As for the total, it opened 46.5 on Monday, and has slowly been bumped up to 47.5. I see solid value to the under, with the biggest concern being the Storm running up a score on the Knights. As a result, I like the Storm to keep the Knights under their team total, which is currently hovering around 16.5. I would be surprised if the Storm’s defence doesn’t look a lot better this week after the bye and expect them to hold the Knights to 12-16 points. Again, we are keeping our powder dry during Origin, so small staking.

Knights (team total) under 16.5

$1.80 (1.5 Units)

 

Based in Newcastle, Ben earns a living working for the NSW Government, but his real passion lies in sports and sports betting. Ben has spent years developing sports betting models for various sports and has been using these models for the past few years, creating articles for Before You Bet across NRL, NFL, Formula 1, and fantasy sports contests on Draftstars.

A lifelong Penrith Panthers fan, Ben has finally seen some rewards for his years of loyal support, with the Panthers chasing a fourth straight NRL Premiership in 2024.

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