Two teams that are coming off their first loss of the season clash on Sunday evening, as the Canberra Raiders visit Sydney for the first time this year, as they head to the Shire to take on the Sharks. Both teams have been impressive defensively, with points likely to be at a premium in this one.
Below, we will dissect the matchup, supply our Best Bet, and suggest a Same Game Multi. Be sure to keep up to date with all the NRL fixtures, as we preview every single game all season long, for free!
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2024 NRL Round 4 Preview & Betting Tips
Cronulla Sharks vs Canberra Raiders
PointsBet Stadium, Sunday 31st March, 6:15pm (AEDT)
Last Week
The Sharks were handed a reality check in round 3, thumped 32-6 by the Wests Tigers at Leichhardt. The Sharks scored the first try and looked in control early, however the Tigers were by far the better team for the final hour of the contest, piling on five unanswered tries to get their first win of the season. Adding insult to injury, the Sharks are without five first grade forwards, and this week come up against one of the best forward packs in the NRL.
The Raiders can consider themselves a little unlucky not to be 3-0, going down 18-10 last week in a tight contest with the Warriors across the ditch. The Raiders were once again impressive last week, completing 81% of their sets, making just the 9 errors in the loss. Jordan Rapana was impressive at the back, running for 205m, breaking 8 tackles, popping two offloads, and coming up with a try assist, line-break assist, and a line-break. Once again named at fullback, look for Rapana to ignite the Raiders attack again this week behind a strong forward pack.
Match Preview
These teams met twice last year, splitting the series one apiece. Both teams won their home games, with the Raiders winning 24-20 in round three, and the Sharks gaining revenge in the final round of the season, winning 24-6. The Sharks were favourites in both matchups, and massive 11.5-point favourites in round 27 at home. To be honest, the Raiders were right in the round 27 contest as 11.5-point dogs, until Seb Kris was sent off in the 60th minute, with the Sharks up 10-6. Four tries in 18 minutes for the Sharks blew the lead out and flattered the Sharks in my opinion.
The Sharks opened 7.5-point favourites in this game, however with the upset loss to the Tigers, and having several forwards out through injury / suspension, Raiders money has poured in this week, to where the Sharks now sit as 3.5-point favourites. I believe this has moved too far and see some value in the Sharks at home here. I am concerned with the Sharks attack though, and until I see them able to put points on the board, I can’t really take them to cover a point spread.
The total opened 41.5, dropping to 40.5 throughout the week. I agree with this move, with the Raiders showing solid defence to start the season. After three weeks, the Raiders have conceded just 14 points per game, with the Warriors 18 points against the Raiders last week being their worst defensive output. I do like the Sharks team total to go under (22.5); however, I’ll stick with the full match unders at this point. Both these teams have gone under in all three of their games this season, with only one of the six games going over 40 points. This figures to be a tight contest which will be won in the forwards, and I can see a low scoring matchup with a 20-18 type scoreline.
Under 40.5 Points
$1.91 (1 Unit)
Same Game Multi
Either team to win by (1-12) margin – As mentioned in the final paragraph above, I like this to be a tight contest. I can’t see either team winning by 13+ in this one.
R Mulitalo (1+ try) – Mulitalo has been one of the most prolific try scorers over the past few seasons, scoring 62 tries in 82 games, at a 75.6% strike rate. Always value when he’s lined around the $2 mark (50/50 chance).
M Timoko (1+ try) – I love Timoko as a player, and this week he will be running at a new edge defensive structure, with Sharks’ left centre Siosifa Talakai moving to the second row, and rookie Kayal Iro into the centres. Expect Timoko to get his chance this week.
SGM Odds: $9.94 at Neds
