The final game of the 2023 home and away season, as the Sharks host the Raiders in what could very well decide the final make-up of week 1 of the finals. The winner of this game will guarantee themselves a home final in week 1, whilst a loss for the Sharks could drop them to 8th, and the Raiders out of the top 8 altogether. So, a massive game to finish of this season of football.
Below, we will dissect the matchup and provide our best bet. Good luck to everyone following, and be sure to keep up to date with all of our NRL content, as we preview every single game all season long, for free!
NRL Round 27 Preview & Betting Tips
Cronulla Sharks vs Canberra Raiders
Pointsbet Stadium, Sunday 3rd September, 4:05pm (AEST)
Last Week
The Sharks are coming off a humbling loss in round 26, going down 32-6 to the Knights. Yes, they were missing Nicho Hynes, but the Sharks and Head Coach Craig Fitzgibbon would have to be concerned with their performance against another top 8 team heading towards the finals. The Sharks missed a whopping 61 tackles, made 14 errors, conceded 8 penalties, and gave up over 2000m to the Knights. Can one man fix these issues in a week?
As for the Raiders, they went down 29-18 at home to the Broncos, who were missing their halfback and captain Adam Reynolds. It was a huge game for the Raiders, and took their destiny out of their own hands to a degree. Now, they need two results to go their way if they lose this one, and there is now a huge chance of the Raiders missing the finals.
Match Preview
The Sharks opened 8.5/9.5-point favourites, and have been bet up slightly to 10.5-point favourites, with heavy juice. This was on the news of Josh Papali’i and Corey Horsburgh missing out. Whilst my numbers suggest the market is quite accurate here, I’m not overly keen on betting on the Sharks to cover this big of a spread. More on that later.
Whilst I’m not a huge believer in looking at two clubs’ histories against one another to handicap a game of rugby league, or any sport for that matter, it’s hard to ignore the Raiders recent form against the Sharks. The Raiders have won 9-straight games over the Sharks, with the Sharks last win over the Raiders coming all the way back in 2018. Whilst this won’t decide my best bet, it will be a factor.
The total opened 44.5 and has been bet up slightly to 45.5. I see small value in the over, with my fair sitting at 48. Add to this the fact both teams have played overs at a 56.5% clip, and I can see points being scored on Sunday.
So, we look back at the spread, and to a lesser extent the money line. Final rounds of the season tend to have more upsets than rounds in the middle of the season, and with so much to play for, I like the Raiders to at the very least keep this one close The Raiders have covered 6 of 9 (66.7%) matches when they’re underdogs. I’ll also happily put a unit on the Raiders to cause the boilover on Sunday afternoon, in what could potentially see these teams meet again in week 1 of the finals in Canberra. Boy, wouldn’t that be a terrible result for the Sharks!
Also Backing:
Raiders to Win – $3.55
Canberra Raiders +10.5
$1.82 (1 Unit)
