The second week of exciting NRL Finals action is here and with just 6 teams remaining, 4 will have the opportunity to extend their season for another week with a victory. After losing last week, the Sharks will host the victorious Cowboys, who won their sudden death match. The game has been shifted to the larger Allianz Stadium to accommodate the Finals atmosphere. The on-field action is sure to dominate once this game begins and Before You Bet is here to preview the action ahead.
NRL Finals Week 2 Preview & Betting Tips
Cronulla Sharks vs North Queensland Cowboys
Allianz Stadium – 20th September – 7:50pm (AEST)
Match Preview
The Sharks headed down to Melbourne last week to face the Storm and were given a lesson by the Minor Premiers. Starting poorly by dropping the ball from the kick off and then conceding a try in the follow set, the Sharks had to work hard to bring themselves back into the contest. They were able to do that and found themselves behind 14-10 at HT. Unfortunately, they were unable to build on their tally in the second half while conceding 4 tries to eventually lose 37-10. It was always going to be a challenge with just 41% possession, but they didn’t help their cause by completing at just 78%. They were poor carrying the ball, making significantly fewer metres and PCM’s. Their defence was also inadequate, missing 41 tackles, allowing 9.6m per carry and 753 PCM’s.
It was a different story for the Cowboys in their elimination match against the Knights; they live to fight another day courtesy of a 28-16 victory at home. Both sides traded blows early and the Cowboys were unable to match the intensity or execution of their opponents, trailing 12-4 at HT. They improved on both sides of the ball in the second half, scoring 4 tries and limiting their opponents to just one; it could’ve been more had the execution of the Knights been up to a Finals standard (except for Ponga). The fact that the Cowboys had a greater share of possession (55%) and a good completion rate (82%) meant they were able to produce consistency in their attack. They also averaged 10m per carry, had 669 PCM’s and made 6 line breaks. They will want to improve upon their 51 missed tackles as defence will become critically important the deeper they go into the Finals.
Match Prediction
The Sharks are listed as favourites for this match ($1.60 vs $2.35) and rightly so given the form of each side this season. The comments from coach Fitzgibbon about a lack of respect being given to the Sharks is somewhat true; they have spent all season inside the Top 4 but their Finals record (winless from the past 8 matches) does create concern.
When a team like the Cowboys has a spirited victory, their confidence their confidence is increased. They have every right to perform well also; their squad is one of the strongest in the competition, but they are yet to reach their potential. As good as they were last week, there were still shortcomings in their play. Their defence is of concern and a team like the Sharks, who is of better quality than their opponents last week, will undoubtedly make them pay for their mistakes.
History is also against the visitors. Despite winning their Round 21 match in Townsville 30-22 they have won just 2 of the past 13 games against the Sharks. Furthermore, they have defeated them just 3 times in Sydney since 2014. Expect a better showing from the home side compared to last week. The quality of their opponent last week limited what they could produce; they were against the Minor Premiers who made a statement in their victory.
Taking an unchanged line-up into this game (same as the Cowboys) offers stability and will provide trust to already established combinations (who may need it). The battle for this game will be won and lost in the middle; the Sharks forwards were poor last week and will need to take the challenge to the Cowboys pack on both sides of the ball. Proving capable throughout the season, this is likely to occur again, with the same questions asked of the Cowboys about why they are not producing more with the talent they have at their disposal.
Interestingly, the average margin of victory in their past 5 matches sits at 20.8 points, with three blowout wins to the Sharks and two 1-12 victories to the Cowboys. This game should be far closer than previous wins and given the Cowboys inability to stop their opponents points in 2024 (23ppg vs Sharks 18ppg), it should mean the home side is able to cover the line.
Sharks -3.5
$1.90 (2 Units)
Same Game Multi
The average points scored in the past 5 matches between these two sides is 51.5 points. Feldt is the leading try scorer for his team this season (23 total tries) and scored a hattrick in their Round 21 meeting. Trindall also scored a double on that night and has been growing in confidence each week. Expect a greater role from him in taking the ball to the line and providing great support play on line breaks.
Total Points Over 45.5
Feldt and Trindall to Score
SGM Odds: $7.50 at Ladbrokes (0.5 Units)
