Welcome to our horse racing preview and betting tips for racing at Sha Tin on Sunday, October 6th.
It's another 10-race card, with seven races on the turf and three races on the dirt. We've previewd all 10 races below.
Best Bet: Race 7 - (11) Deal Maker
Best Value: Race 5 - (7) Lucky Guy
Very keen o (3) Regency Gem to start the day here. He was my best bet of the day last start but he was taken back from a wide draw and was left with too much to do. He ran home strongly into 3rd, recording a 22.76sec final 400m. That was the clear fastest of the race and he was the only horse to break 23 seconds for that final sectional. Importantly, today he draws an inside gate which should allow him to settle closer in the run. Purton replaces Moreira, who takes the ride on (4) Sky Gem. Sky Gem did a good job to jump from 1200m to 1650m last start and he wasn't beaten far at all. Up to 1800m now and back to Sha Tin, where he's so far failed to make an impression. He draws awkwardly in barrier 9 so I'm happy to side with Regency Gem to get the better of him. (1) Full Of Chances drops in Class and can be effective here, while (8) Young Glory is a battler but does have the ability to produce a short, sharp sprint.
(1) New Elegance looks a good each way bet here around $6.00. It's always hugely risky backing a horse when Purton jumps off it having ridden it at its last start, but Zac sides with last-start winner (2) Crown Avenue here, leaving Blake Shinn to pick up the ride on New Elegance. This horse tends to improve sharply second up. His first up run was fair. He ran 4th beaten just under 4L, but he was fresh from a nine-week break carrying top weight. He carries top weight again today but he has three wins and a 3rd from four starts when second up, so I expect him to go close. Crown Avenue ended a run of placings with another win last start. He rises in the weights as a result, which might just see him struggle to win this. He only won narrowly last start after having everything go his way and even though there was a big gap to 3rd, I think he's short enough at $2.70 here. I'll also back (5) Gorgeous Again. He ran 3rd to Crown Avenue last start and although he was beaten about 3.5L, he has a couple of things in his favour today. Firstly, he gets a 3.5kg swing in the weights on Crown Avenue, and notably, he lost his stirrup iron early in the race last start, which could have had a big impact. He recorded a strong final 400m last prep when he ran 2nd over 2000m, and if he repeated that effort he'd give this a real shake. Backing both Gorgeous Again and New Elegance.
Dirt races can be hard to assess and this is no different. (8) Hidden Spirit has only had one run on the dirt and it was a dominant victory over this distance. He rises in the weights for today's race but on the strength of that victory he should be hard to beat again today if they've got him fit enough. (5) Keep Winning draws the inside barrier and he won over this track and distance first up last preparation off a similar sort of weight. He's also worth a bet at $6.00 but I won't be going hard here.
On his first up run over this track and distance, (4) Fresh Power should be very hard to beat. He's only won the one race from 22 starts but he gets his chance to win again today. He got cut in half about 200m into the race last start but he picked himself up and ran home in strong final sectionals to finish 2nd. He draws the inside gate here which is a big advantage over the 1200m on the B course at Sha Tin and Purton jumps aboard. Looks the goods.
(7) Lucky Guy looks a decent each way bet at $10 here. He's placed in his past three starts and has been running sub-23second sectionals. He steps up to 1400m today which is the only little query but he's drawn well in barrier 4 and should measure up on the times he's been running. (9) Sprint Forward is the one to beat for Purton and John Moore. He went close first up and should take benefit from that run. Draws well again and will be right in the finish. (3) Sunshine Warrior was a touch disappointing last start but on his win two starts back he can run well. (13) Shinealot is the blowout.
Another tricky race on the dirt. (10) Promise Kept ran very well from the back of the field to finish 4th first up over 1200m. He jumps straight up to 1650m which is a little concern but he draws a soft gate this time and can sit closer in the run. His final 400m sectional of 22.48sec is the best in this field so he should go close to winning his first race. (5) Enfolding continues to run well but is struggling to break through for another win. He always runs on strongly in the straight but he's short enough in the market for a horse that's not exactly going close to winning, even though he's running well in defeat. (1) Touch Of Luck ran well first up but had no luck at all from the wide gate last start when he was caught four-wide the entire race. Purton takes the ride on Enfolding so gives up the ride on Touch Of Luck, but if he can get a good run throughout the race, he can be very competitive. (3) Good Fit draws poorly but he's a seven-time winner on the dirt. (6) Grand Harbour not hopeless.
(11) Deal Maker progresses to Class 3 today after two dominant wins in Class 4 over this track and distance. He looks well and truly capable of making the step up and if he can get across from barrier 8 he'll take plenty of catching. He absolutely smoked Enfolding last start, who continues to run well and will start the favourite in the race before this. $3.30 is more than acceptable for him. (9) Clear Choice looks primed to run a bold race first up after a good trial. Moreira is a notable jockey booking today. He's placed in his two starts on the dirt, including one where he was beaten by a neck when in this Class. He looks the danger at $5.00. Happy to back Deal Maker and save on Clear Choice.
Looks a nice race for (4) Band Of Brothers to resume in. He's won three of his five starts to date. Last time we saw him he won over the mile in this Class when starting from the wide gate. It will be a big effort to win again off this mark first up at 1400m but he's shown plenty of talent so far and it looks a pretty thin race. He's drawn well in barrier 3 and should take plenty of beating at $2.90. Two of his dangers also have things against them. (3) War Room ran very well first up over the 100m but now jumps up sharply to 1400m, while (14) Bellagio steps up in Class and draws a wide gate.
Very excited by the return of (13) Chicken Dance who is a horse with plenty more in store. He sizzled the turf on his debut when he unleashed a huge run from the back of the field. He then had no luck at all second up before coming out at his third start and blitzing his rivals. Purton gives up the ride today as he can't make the weight so Karis Teetan picks it up. He steps up in Class today but he's drawn well and gets in light. I think he's got plenty more wins in him. (2) Solomon's Bay cops a weight rise as a result of winning last start. His final two sectionals were very strong so even though he gives a little weight swing to (11) California Gungho he should still be finishing off the race strongly and rates as a good winning chance at each way odds. California Gungho won two starts back and led everywhere bar the post when stepping up in Class last start. He'll be in front for a long way. (12) Lakeshore Eagle isn't to be dismissed.
Looks a nice race for (3) Hezthewonforus, who returns here with two good trials under the belt. He's got a terrific first up record with two wins and a 2nd from three starts. He draws the inside gate here which is a big advantage and he won first up over this track and distance in this class last preparation. (12) Handsome Bo Bo is huge odds but is worth throwing in quaddies and exotics. He ran reasonably well first up in what has turned out to be a very strong form race and he tends to improve second up. He'll just need a good ride from barrier 10. (6) Beauty Spirit has placed in his past two starts, one of which was over 1400m and the other over a mile. He's drawn soft and can be competitive again at double figure odds. (2) Fast Most Furious is in good form but the wide draw might hurt here.
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