We're getting closer to Spring with a big Saturday of horse racing on the cards. There are plenty of talented fillies making their first appearance of their campaign with the Warwick Stakes the feature race of the day. Our resident horse racing expert Tim is back once again to bring you some more great horse racing betting tips.
Those that have followed Tim's work, either on Twitter or through his subscription service at Tim's Tips, will know that Tim brings excellent form and great experience in the industry. Tim will be providing previews and analysis of feature races, with regular articles each Saturday and throughout the spring racing season.
Pro-Ride Warwick Stakes 1400m - WFA Group 2
PORNICHET resumes today after living up to his potential at the end of his last preparation where he won the Group 1 Doomben Cup comfortably. He's had two trials leading into this but judging by last prep he will need a couple of runs before he is ready to win.
BEATEN UP also resumes. He ran a cracker of a race behind Hartnell in The BMW last prep but that was over 2400m. He is another that needs a few runs and also more ground.
FORETELLER is another that resumes for Chris Waller. Needs 2000m and a few runs under his belt. He will will be going round for fitness against this handy field.
MORIARTY is probably a level below this field and is similar to Foreteller in that he will need a few runs and a bit more ground. Not up to the better horses here.
BURBERO surprised most people last start when he knocked off Weary and Temple Of Boom to take out the Group 2 Missile Stakes over 1200m here. Didn't think he was quite up to winning a WFA event against that class of horse but he rattled home impressively to win. He's won a Group 2 over 1500m before so the step up to 1400m here looks no problem at all. Has a fitness edge over most of the field and is flying so with the good draw he can't be ruled out of this.
MESSENE was expected to run well first up but looked massive in the yard and clearly needed the run. He drifted from around $3 to about $7 on track before finishing 5th, not beaten all that far. Much better suited here 2nd up with a run under his belt and 1400m is ideal. Drawn the rail so expect him to be right up there on the pace. He can bounce back here.
HAWKSPUR is similar to Foreteller and Moriarty. Terrible first up record and he will be going round for fitness here aiming towards the middle distance races later in the Spring.
IT'S SOMEWHAT was really impressive on his Australian debut when he won the Group 3 Liverpool City Cup first up last prep over 1300m. Probably not the calibre of field that he faces today but he resumes today off the back of two trials and has been well supported. If he runs up to his Australian debut he is right in the mix. Wide draw the concern.
COMPLACENT has his first run in nearly two years today. We last saw him when he won the Group 1 Spring Champion in Sydney before running 2nd to Polanski in the Victoria Derby. Talented horse but clearly has had issues and they will be happy just to see him go around here.
ZARATONE ran 4th behind Burbero in the Missle Stakes last start. He will likely try and cross from barrier 9 to try and lead which should ensure there is a decent tempo in the race. Looks to be outclassed again today though.
KERMADEC is one horse I am really looking forward to seeing this Spring. His Australian Guineas run still makes me sick to think about. Resumes today after winning the Group 1 Doncaster Mile at his last start and while 1600m is his pet distance, he is just as capable of winning this first up over 1400m. Has had two trials leading into this and has been well supported after the scratching of First Seal. He is top pick.
ROYAL DESCENT was named Racing NSW Champion Miler the other night, even though she hasn't won a race in a long, long time. Resumes today off the back of a nice trial win. Has placed in 4 out of 5 runs over 1400m and 11 out of 13 runs at Randwick. Capable of running well fresh and the good draw will help her but I see her as a solid place chance more than a winning hope.
GUST OF WIND finished off a quite remarkable preparation last time in by winning the Group 1 ATC Oaks. She resumes today and is being targeted towards the Melbourne Cup. Her trainer says that she is a really dour two-miler which means she will likely be getting back to last in this field and plugging home. Keep an eye on her going forward for Spring.
Verdict
Although this is a decent field I think we can rule out most of these due to the fact they are horses resuming that will be looking for races further down the track to be competitive in. I really only see a couple of decent chances in this race. KERMADEC goes on top for me. Dominant in the Doncaster Mile and he should have won the Australian Guineas last prep too. He won't be fully wound up today but he still has the ability to win this race over 1400m. BURBERO surprised many last start and he holds a significant fitness edge over plenty of these. The 1400m will suit him better than most here and he can be in the money again. IT'S SOMEWHAT will need luck from barrier 11 but if he gets a decent run in transit he might just give this a shake. His Australian debut was impressive and if he can repeat that he will go close here, while ROYAL DESCENT is a solid place chance resuming from a spell. MESSENE could be the big improver.
1st KERMADEC
2nd BURBERO
3rd IT'S SOMEWHAT
4th ROYAL DESCENT
Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
