Saturday Horse Racing: AJ Scahill Stakes and Festival Stakes Preview

November 27th 2015, 5:12pm, By: tim_tips

Our resident horse racing expert, and Perth local, Tim is back once again to bring you some more great horse racing betting tips on Day 2 of the Perth Spring Racing Carnival.

Those that have followed Tim's work, either on Twitter or through his subscription service at Tim's Tips, will know that Tim brings excellent form and great experience in the industry. Tim will be providing previews and analysis of feature races, with regular articles each Saturday.

A.J. SCAHILL STAKES

Day 2 of the Perth Spring Racing Carnival and the day's feature race is the Group 3 A.J Scahill Stakes over 1400m. The market suggests there is only two real chances and it certainly appears that way on paper. Waterman's Bay comes up the $1.70 favourite with Magnifisio at $4.60. 

WATERMAN'S BAY ran a blinder in the Group 1 Winterbottom Stakes last weekend when he flashed home out wide to finish 2nd to the superstar sprinter Buffering. Not many other horses made ground like he did on the day and it was probably the most eye-catching run of the day. Only carries 0.5kg more than what he did last weekend with this weight-for-age scale, and the 1400m will suit him better than the 1200m. Looks the likely winner but $1.70 is pretty short!

MAGNIFISIO is the only other real chance and you can completely forgive her run last start in the Winterbottom. She drew the widest barrier in the field, went back in the field, traveled wide and didn't make any impact at all on a track that favoured front runners. Her run previous to that behind Black Heart Bart was eye catching so if you forgive last start her form looks very good. She draws barrier 4 here which will allow her to settle wherever she wants and she'll get a great run. Hasn't finished outside the top 2 at any of her 3 starts over this track and distance. Gets 2kg off Waterman's Bay and at the $4.60 quote I think she's a much better betting proposition than the favourite.

Outside of the top 2 the blowouts look to be Rommel and Checkpoint. Rommel ran reasonably well first up and has won 2 from 3 when second up. Checkpoint resumed in the Winterbottom off a very long spell and from 5 starts 2nd up he has won 3 and placed twice. Draws well and could run a big race.

While Waterman's Bay looks to be the likely winner, I think Magnifisio is the better bet at the prices.

1st MAGNIFISIO
2nd WATERMAN'S BAY
3rd CHECKPOINT
4th ROMMEL

 

SKY THOROUGHBRED CENTRAL FESTIVAL STAKES 1500M

The Festival Stakes is the feature race on the card this week at Rosehill and a few of the bookies are offering money back if you run 2nd or 3rd (see Promotions below). This looks a really even race on paper with about 4 or 5 good winning chances. The speed in the race looks to be coming from out wide so the tempo could be pretty strong, allowing those from off the speed to run on. 

FRESPANOL comes up favourite and deservedly so with the form he is in. He's finished in the top 2 at his past 3 starts which included a win two runs back. Last start he ran 2nd to Zanbagh who was probably better suited on the wet ground. He only finished 2nd by half a length but they cleared out by 3 lengths to the 3rd horse. He drops 2kg from that run and draws to get a good run either up on speed or with a sit. Looks hard to beat back on the firmer ground.

PEACE FORCE didn't fire at Flemington last start but her run before that in the Nivison was very good. She was first up from a spell that day and only got nosed out. If she can come across without doing too much work early she might be a rough chance.

CENTRE PIVOT put two wins together before failing on a heavy track last start. He was first up from a little break that day and his 2nd up record is excellent with 2 wins and a 2nd from 3 runs. He's never finished out of the top 2 over this distance and with any luck from the wide gate he is right in this.

IT'S SOMEWHAT comes into this first up from a spell on the back of two good trials. He won his first start in Australia but has failed to produce the same kind of performance since, albeit in harder races. Draws to get a lovely run from barrier 4 and if he is tuned up he can run well.

Others with rough chances include RED EXCITEMENT who wasn't suited on a soft track first up; PHEIDON who can run a big race fresh at huge odds, while ZANBAGH was probably better suited to the heavy ground last start and might struggle back on firmer ground. 

1st FRESPANOL
2nd CENTRE PIVOT
3rd IT'S SOMEWHAT
4th PHEIDON

 

Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly.  Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!

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