Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for the midweek card at Sandown Lakeside on Wednesday, November 22nd.
We have an eight-race card on a Good 4 track with the rail in the true position, so that should give every horse their chance provided no early bias arises.
We have betting tips and comments for every race below.
SANDOWN RACING TIPS
Best Bet: Race 6 Almighty
Best Value: Race 4 Billy Bayou & The Housemaid
Race 1
Just a small field to go around here. SINJAREE ran 2nd on debut at Pakenham over 1400m and stays at that distance for its second career run today. With the debut experience sure to have brought him on, and the fact he has had the run at 1400m, he should go close again today. TRENT gets the blinkers on for the first time today after running 2nd at Traralgon last start. Gets a big jockey change with Craig Williams taking over, and from the inside barrier in the small field I’d think he’d be there for a long way. LADY MAHALA is another that gets the blinkers reapplied after consecutive runner-up finishes.
TIP: Sinjaree
Race 2
Intriguing little race with four horses rated under $4. EGYPTIAN BULLET resumed with a win in this grade carrying 61kg before tackling a much harder race during the Flemington carnival. Drops back heavily in grade here and gets in with 60kg after the claim for Jack Martin. With some of the other fillies carrying a similar weight she seems fairly well in here and can bounce back. KARDASHING resumes from a spell with a trial under the belt in preparation for today. Her last preparation was good, with a maiden win followed by a good run in town behind the smart Smart Coupe, and a trip to Adelaide resulting in a minor placing. Gets some weight relief with Ethan Brown’s claim and no surprise to see her return a winner. BELLA MARTINI is another that resumes. She ran well in town first up last prep before breaking her maiden by 5L at Pakenham. Has to carry 59.5kg first up but should go well. OCEAN DEEP followed up a trial win with a maiden win at Kilmore last start. Comes straight to town now for the Lindsay Park team and despite the 59.5kg she is another that could win without surprising. Tough to separate those top four in the market, but leaning towards Egyptian Bullet.
TIP: Egyptian Bullet
Race 3
Tough race but interested in two at each way odds here. The first is HOAGLAND for Aaron Purcell and Linda Meech. This horse won its debut at Horsham, hitting the line strongly late to back up its 7L trial win. Looks to have the ability to make the step up to city class here for a stable in hot form and a jockey that’s flying. There was $7 available this morning but $5.50 is the best we’re getting now. Another horse that won in the country on debut was Darren Weir’s HOLY FREEZE, who broke through at Warrnambool on a heavy track. We see Weir horses win at these tracks time and time again before coming straight to the city and being very competitive. Draws well and I think it’s telling that Weir opts to use John Allen here and not an apprentice. Expecting a big run at $6.50. Playing both at the odds.
TIP: Hoagland EW / Holy Freeze EW
Race 4
There’s three in particular I want to highlight here, and I’ll be backing all three. The first is Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott’s ALMALITA. Quite simply, you just have to include any runner from this stable that’s going around in Melbourne at the moment, such is their strike rate in recent weeks. This horse won comfortably at Cranbourne last start, and even though this is a much tougher race, it will put itself in the race on the speed and be tough to run down. At the odds I’ll likely just have it as a saver bet. The two at good odds that I’ll be playing for a big result are BILLY BAYOU and THE HOUSEMAID. Billy bayou is another Weir runner whose run at Geelong last start was just fair. The market told the story that day ($13 out to $26) so keep a close eye on the betting activity here. Currently his best price is $19, but I think we could see sharp improvement today and if there’s any market support for him before the jump that is a good indicator he could go close. THE HOUSEMAID is from the in-form Archie Alexander stable, and comes off a good run over 2400m at Bendigo last start. The best preparation for a 2400m run is a 2400m run, so with that run under his belt he should go close back to 64-grade here. $11 looks a nice each way bet. CORRS, STREET SPUN and MICHELIN worth including. Backing Billy and The Housmaid with a saver on Almalita.
TIP: Billy Bayou EW / The Housemaid EW (Best Value)
Race 5
Not a confident race but GRAN TYPHENA looks a reasonable each way play here at $6.50 after a good first up run over 1400m. Will continue to improve as she gets up in trip, but she hit the line hard last start and should be able to wind up on this track. I’d suggest Weir’s best chance comes in the form of GOLD BLUSH ahead of STAR CIRCLE, while ANGEL EIGHT is one at double figures to throw in second up from a spell. PRIAR ECLIPSE comes out of the strongest form races but she doesn’t win out of turn and at that price I’d have to take her on. FUDGED and ATOMIC KITTEN are up in grade but can run well. Worth noting that Atomic Kitten is Michael Walker’s only ride for the day.
TIP: Gran Tryphena EW
Race 6
I’ve tried pretty hard to look past ALMIGHTY but all things being equal he should be winning this. He comes off a 2.35L defeat to Snitzepeg first up, before a luckless run in the Group 3 Carbine Club Stakes behind Levendi. He was held up from the 400m-200m and ended up running 10th. Drops back from that company to a BM64 Wednesday race. The biggest concern for me is just how poor the Snowden horses have gone in Melbourne this Spring, which is unusual by their standards. LAST WEEK has been running consistently well in the country without quite breaking through, but again, we’ve seen Weir bring these horses to the city and suddenly they improve lengths. He’s been gelded since his last start – that could be the key? MAGELLAN is running well but has never won on a good track from nine starts. POP QUEEN can go well, while BARNEY ALLEN comes off a 7L win at Mortlake, but just how strong is that form? I’m tipping not very.
TIP: Almighty (Best Bet)
Race 7
I’ve got a knock on quite a few horses in this field and have landed on MACATTACK as the one that appeals most at $4.20. He’s first up today and sure to improve as he gets out to the mile, but he won first up last prep and has performed well at this track before. Gets in with just 53.5kg with the claim for Ben Allen, the stable is going strongly and I think he’ll run a bold race fresh. HARBOUR GREY is the $3.10 favourite after two good runs to open the preparation. We were on him at $26 last start at Flemington in the greys race, where he just got run down right on the line. The step back to 1600m looks suitable, he draws well and gets in relatively well at the weights after the 3kg claim. Just at that price I struggle to step into him, but I’ve got no real knock on him compared to some others. I couldn’t touch SEARCH SQUAD at $4 despite the notable booking of Craig Williams. If he wins, so be it, but I’ll take him on. SEE ME FLY tends to race very well when fresh but his form is seemingly tapering off as he gets further into the preparation. RAPID ASSET can improve second up here and is worth including at double figure odds.
TIP: Macattack
Race 8
Tough race to round out the day. MINOAN SPIRIT comes off a solid win at Hamilton last start and gets in reasonably well weighted here with 58kg after the claim for Ethan Brown. I think the 1400m is his best distance so glad he stays at the distance after last start. Should get a great run from barrier 7 and if he’s at his best he should go very close to winning again. CHARLIE CHEVAL looks the value in the race after a good first up run. His only win came on the Hillside track here at Sandown, when he broke his maiden in dominant fashion. The Lakeside course is of course slightly different but the surface should be similar and we may see him get to his best here second up and up to 1400m. $9.50 looks a good each way price. We were on LADY PROVOCATEUR first up when she was disappointing. The blinkers go on for the first time here and she did win second up last prep so I wouldn’t be discounting her at the big odds. COOL RUNNINGS is the interesting runner, first up in Australia as a gelding and Damien Oliver booked for the ride.
TIP: Minoan Spirit / Charlie Cheval EW
QUADDIE
1, 2, 8, 9, 10, 11
4, 6, 7, 8, 10, 11
1, 5, 8, 9
1, 6, 7, 9, 12, 13
$100 = 11.57%
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Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
