It all comes down to this! Australia and New Zealand will battle for Rugby League World Cup glory on Sunday night at Suncorp Stadium, with the Kangaroos chasing another world title and the Kiwis looking to repeat their famous 2008 triumph in Brisbane.
The two traditional rivals opened the tournament with a thriller, and now they're back for the biggest prize of all. Australia arrive off a dominant 44-12 demolition of Samoa, while New Zealand have been the form team of the tournament, underlining their credentials with an impressive 34-10 victory over Tonga.
With Kalyn Ponga providing the X-factor for the Kiwis and Australia's star-studded lineup hitting its straps at just the right time, this shapes as a cracking contest. Can the Kangaroos deliver when it matters most, or are the Kiwis poised for another famous upset?
We break down the form, key statistics and betting markets to find our best bets for the 2026 Rugby League World Cup Final.
Rugby League World Cup Final Preview & Betting Tips
| Match |
Best Bet |
Odds |
| Australia vs New Zealand |
Either team by 8.5 points or less |
$2.15 (2.5 units) |
Australia: Their Best Performance Yet
Expected to be vulnerable following their form in the tournament thus far, Australia produced their best performance to blow Samoa away 44-12.
Jumping to a 26-2 half-time lead courtesy of high execution, poise, and some errors from their opponents, they were strong with an 87% completion rate as they had a 55% share of possession. This allowed them to average 9m per carry and create 9 line breaks.
Despite missing 37 tackles, their defence was also strong. They allowed just 1 line break, limited their opponents to 8.1m per carry, and just 330 post-contact metres.
In the end, they were too strong across the field and took their chances which were offered to them. Ironically, that is what got them through the opening match of the competition.
New Zealand: The Form Team
The Kiwis made a statement in their 34-10 victory over Tonga in thrilling circumstances.
Scoring just before half-time, they overcame a first half deficit to lead 12-10 at half-time. They carried that momentum into the second half, scoring 4 more tries and hitting their peak on both sides of the ball. With 55% possession, they completed at 76%, averaged 9.3m per carry and made 593 post-contact metres.
Despite conceding 9 line breaks and missing 40 tackles, they scrambled well defensively and continually shut down their opponents’ attacking movements in the second half. Built around Ponga, who was returning from injury, they continually produced epic moments that makes them contenders to win this match.
Stats That Matter
- Australia have won 19 of the past 21 matches against New Zealand. In their history, Australia has won 108 of the 145 tests played between the two nations.
- The past 2 games between these two sides, which Australia have won, have been decided by just 2 points.
- Despite the Australians having a 92% win record here and New Zealand winning just 33% of games, the visitors were victorious in the 2008 Final held here, capturing a 34-20 victory in dramatic fashion.
- The Aussies have averaged 42.5ppg in attack so far this tournament, well behind the Kiwis 54ppg. The visitors have also performed better defensively, allowing just 12.5ppg while the hosts have allowed 15.5ppg.
Australia vs New Zealand: Down to the Wire
Just like the opening game of the tournament, this game is expected to go down to the wire!
The difference at that point was that nine Australian players didn’t play in the Finals and you could tell that they were off the pace. Countering that, the Kiwis were well prepared for the intensity of that contest.
The form last week suggests Australia are a better team since that fixture but so too are New Zealand. Their execution is impressive and they will take confidence from Ponga returning. Australia need to nullify his influence as best as possible, while targeting the vulnerability of their halves in defence.
The play in this game is undoubtedly investing around a tight finish. Each will want to gain ascendency in the middle and if the Kiwis can rely on their bench, they can combat what Australia can offer; this will be critically important when the likes of Murray and Cotter come into the contest. It is no secret that the ruck increases in speed at this point.
For the sake of making a call, an upset looks likely and it’s perhaps the best opportunity in recent memory for the Kiwis. Nevertheless, this is about trying to win money, hence the selection below.
Best Bet
Either team to win by 8.5 points or less
$2.15 (2.5 units)
Australia vs New Zealand Same Game Multi
Three selections make up our same-game multi:
1. Total points over 42.5 — it has been the theme for the tournament thus far and this game should be no different as each chases their chances. Don’t forget, changed rules increases the speed of the ruck and makes the middle forwards vulnerable.
2. McLean to score — he is a try scoring machine at this level, scoring 16 tries from 8 games. While playing minor nations has helped, McLean is a proven try scorer at the top level and will want to have a positive impact on this result.
3. Trbojevic to score — he is a man in form this tournament, scoring 8 tries from 4 matches. Like the point above about the quality of opponents, Turbo has still put himself in strong try scoring positions. Looking to make amends for his poor showing in the first game, expect him to pop up throughout this contest.
Australia vs New Zealand Betting Odds & Match Info
Date: Sunday 15th November
Location: Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
Time: 7:35pm (AEST)
Odds: Australia $1.70 vs New Zealand $2.15
Line: -2.5
Points: 42.5
For more tournament previews and betting tips, visit our Rugby Tips page.
