Welcome to our horse racing preview and betting tips for racing at Rosehill on Wednesday, April 1st.
We've got a rare midweek meeting at Rosehill this Wednesday, with the rail back in the true position after Saturday's Tancred Stakes meeting. The track is rated a Soft 7.
Fresh off a huge weekend of winners, Tim Geers has provided his race-by-race preview, tips and best bets below!
Rosehill Racing Tips: Wednesday, April 1st
Best Bet: Race 8 - (18) Instant Attraction
Best Value Bet: Race 7 - (9) Red Notice
(1) Gundy Bridge ran 2nd on debut at Gosford, beaten half-a-length and I think he'll take some beating here. He sat four-wide without cover in the early stages of that race before coming across to sit outside the leader, so it was a good effort for a horse having its first start. Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott have a terrific strike rate at Rosehill (25%) and a huge ROI of 116%. This horse should lead and be very hard to run down. The money has come for one of the three Waller horses, (12) Selburose with James McDonald aboard. She's had two good recent trials and JMac going on obviously suggests she's the stable elect.
You'll struggle to see a better thing beat than (10) Duenna last start at Kensington. I tipped her that day and she saw nothing but backsides for the entire straight. She eventually got an inch of daylight late and really motored to the line under little pressure. She should have won and I have to stick with her today. The biggest worry is the form of Kerrin McEvoy. The value in the race is (2) Blueant who finished 2nd in that same race as Duenna. He didn't get much luck either, posted four-wide without cover throughout. He still came home strongly and he actually started $3.30 in that race, so the market didn't have much splitting him and Duenna on the day, yet one is $4.20 here and the other is $8.00. He's drawn wide again here but that might actually end up being the better part of the track.
Repeat the comment from the last race except this time it's (10) All Time Legend. McEvoy completely murdered it last start. His run was a complete horror show but he's since been back to the trials, where he won, and at his best he's the one to beat here. (7) Gone Bye never got into the race first up in the Canberra Guineas. I think we'll see him improve quite sharply today stepping up slightly in distance second up. Whether he wants a firmer deck is the little query but he showed plenty of talent in his first preparation and he looks the value at $7.00. (6) Mocambo tends to improve sharply from his first up run to his second up run so with Bowman aboard today, he is one to include, while JMac jumps off (9) Mubariz onto stablemate (11) Miyake so watch the betting there. All Time Legend and Gone Bye for me.
Value: (7) Gone Bye $7.00
(10) All Time Legend
$3.20
(4) Got Your Six returned to the winner's stall last start at Muswellbrook in the Godolphin Tiara, which followed a good second up run behind High Low Bet. I wouldn't say the race at Muswellbrook was necessarily metropolitan form but she's got plenty of it in the form book anyway. Look at her debut preparation when she ran 2nd to the likes of Trope, Classique Legend and Fasika! I've already made mention of the stable's terrific strike rate at Rosehill and with Hyeronimus on board, she shoud go forward and prove hard to beat. (5) Icebath brings a very strong form line to a midweek race. She finished less than a length off Shout The Bar last start at Kembla Grange, and that horse then came out and won a G1 defeating the likes of Probabeel and Funstar last weekend. Back to Wednesday company, she should be very hard to hold out. If there's going to be a blowout it could be (13) Genoveffa at $61. She's done absolutely zilch in two starts this preparation but she tends to peak third up so perhaps throw her in wider exotics.
It's a Waller race here with six runners from the stable. (7) Yonkers won his first two starts this campaign before another good effort last start when 4th, beaten less than a length here at Rosehill. He has the task ahead here with 59.5kg and barrier 13 but he's going well and this is no harder. Bowman goes back aboard. The stablemate (8) New Arrangement could be the value at $8.00. He is a UK import that had no luck at all on his Australian debut, where he never saw daylight. He started favourite in that race so the market certainly had respect for him and he's worth giving another go here. Drawn well in barrier 6.
Value: (8) New Arrangement $8.00
(5) True Detective gets his chance to win today. He last raced in the Listed Fireball Stakes where he was galloped on and lost his off-hind plate in running before weakening out of the race. That was behind the likes o Villami, California Zimbol and Cosmic Force so he will find this significantly easier. His two runs prior to that were good, Bowman goes back aboard today and he should prove hard to beat. (4) Segalas has returned in good order with a first up win followed by a 2n placing last time out. Bowman jumps off him to ride True Detective here but there's no reason he can't still be competitive. (12) Knickpoint was beaten as a drifting favourite in the Canberra National Sprint last start but was dominant prior to that. He drops back in distance today which suits him better but he might well want a firmer track.
There's two at big odds I want to be on here. (4) Nictock was slaughtered first up by Kerrin McEvoy and he's replaced by Hugh Bowman today. That was his first run for a year so he should take plenty of improvement from it and he's won two of his four starts when second up from a spell. He might just want a firmer track though. The one at huge odds to definitely include is (9) Red Notice. I was actually keen on him last week before the meeting got called off. He won first up before a flat run second up, but he always does that. He's never run a place from five starts when second up, but he has two wins from four starts third up so he can bounce back. Again, he might prefer firmer ground but he does have two wins on soft ground so he's not hopeless. Gate a concern but he's $34 and $9.50 to run a place.
(18) Instant Attraction was beaten as the even money favourite first up at Newcastle but you can forget she went around there. She copped a check at the 300m and never saw daylight for the rest of the straight. She matched motors with Military Magic last preparation which is a good form reference for this. She gets the blinkers on for the first time today, James McDonald takes over and she should be very hard to beat. (8) Regal Stage s undefeated first up and returns as a gelding today. He's drawn horribly but should slide acoss to take up a position on speed and he could be the value at $13.
Value: (8) Regal Stage $13
(18) Instant Attraction
$2.80
