Welcome to our horse racing preview of Rosehill Gardens on Saturday 9th September. We have nine races to find winners for, with the Stan Fox Stakes, Theo Marks Stakes and Run To The Rose headlining the card. The track is rated a Good 3 with the rail in the True position, and with fine weather it looks like we will definitely be running on a very firm track. That may favour runners up on speed and with inside draws.
We have betting tips and comments for every race below.
ROSEHILL RACING TIPS
Best Bet: Tango Rain (Race 8)
Best Value: Invader EW (Race 7)
Race 1
Hard race to start with. Leaning to KARAVALI after a solid win first up at Newcastle. Carries the big weight here but Bowman takes the ride for Kris Lees and barrier 3 should see her get a lovely run. Has performed well at the track last prep and at $4 she's at a backable price. CAMBAGE bolted in first up at Hawkesbury, winning by 2.8L with 60.5kg on her back. Has a good second up record and it'd be no surprise for me to see her win this. My concerns are where she will end up in the run (likely at the back of the field) and Christian Reith taking the ride. Keen to back LUVALUVA each way with just 51.5kg on her back. Her debut win was outstanding and stamped her as a potential Oaks horse. She failed at her next start but has since been back to the trials where she split Dixie Blossoms and Imanui. Double figure odds appeals. MIDNIGHT DELIGHT steps up in grade here for Waller/McEvoy but can go close. MARIQUITA won well last start over a smart horse in Awoke and can feature once again.
TIP: Karavali / Luvaluva EW
Race 2
Good edition of the Highway Handicap. I've been against SUNCRAZE and I do think he's vulnerable here but I also think he's the best horse in the race and for that reason he goes on top. He bolted in last start over 1400m, and although he drops back to 1200m, he is good enough to win. He's trialled very nicely in between runs and the key in this race will be Corey Brown maneuvering him off the rail from barrier 1. Brown said that was the key to the horse - getting him outside of runners - so don't be surprised to see him drop anchor and round the field. The horse I think he has to beat is DON'T GIVE A DAMN who was an impressive winner of a Goulburn maiden last Friday. He led all the way on that occasion and comes into this on the quick back-up here. Carries 53kg with Kerrin McEvoy booked to ride, so I think he'll go close at good odds around the $6.50 mark. We can back both those horses. MOSSMAN GORGE is probably the biggest danger to those two. He comes off a solid Highway win last start, where he beat Nic's Vendetta and Lifesaver. That form ties in with Another Sin, so the win had plenty of merit. He'll get a much easier run from barrier 2 today but will have a speed battle on up front. NORTHERN KNIGHT and RUTHLESS AGENT next best.
TIP: Suncraze / Don't Give A Damn EW
Race 3
I think ALWARD wins here but I do think there's a bit of value to fill the exotics. Alward bolted in by 3L two starts ago in Melbourne and then came to Sydney last start and won again. He overcame a fair bit of traffic in doing so and the win was better than the 0.3L margin suggests. Drops 200m in distance here which is a small query but he looks very hard to beat again at even money. Outside of him, expect big improvement from the Hayes/Dabernig mare NOT ONLY FLORINA. She didn't get close to them first up over 1600m at Caulfield but the rise in trip and more importantly, the firm ground, will see her improve significantly here. Her only two failures have been on wet ground, but she's won both starts on good ground. She's got a good second up record so include her at $21. NAT KING CU will either lead or box seat from barrier 1. He gave a good sight last start when only run down late by Alward so he'll measure up again with the slight drop back in distance. HUNTER JACK won at big odds first up and then failed last start, but he always does that second up. He then bounces back third up from a spell, so given he was only beaten 2L last start, he should be able to fight out the finish here from the good draw at a track and distance he has placed at previously. Include at $26. MAPMAKER has run 2nd at his past two starts behind the red-hot Special Missile and can run a good race.
TIP: Alward
Race 4
Good race with a number of exciting horses. Hard to be confident, but I'll be having something on TRAPEZE ARTIST here. He needed the run first up when carrying 61kg and clearly wasn't set for that race at all, and he gets in much better here. He was beaten 2.8L in that race, but does get an 8kg weight swing on the likes of GOLD STANDARD. He's trialled since that run, and trialled very well alongside In Her Time, so with a good draw, up in distance, down in weight and Kerrin McEvoy booked to ride, he should go very close today. $4 for him. I think GOLD STANDARD is probably the one to beat. He ran 2nd behind a very good horse in Dracarys last start, and that form should see him right in the finish again. Goes up in weight but draws to get a good run once again. ADDICTIVE NATURE led all the way last start to beat Assimilate, who can be tied into Dracarys. He looks to get the lead again here, but I think the race he won last start was weaker than this one, and he's now getting fairly deep into his first preparation. SANCTIONED can improve with Bowman booked to ride, and I'm thinking THE MISSION will need the run. Backing Trapeze Artist, saving on Gold Standard.
TIP: Trapeze Artist
Race 5
Looking to take on the two favourites here. EGG TART has the potential to be a genuine star and is being talked about as a possible Cox Plate horse, so there's no knock on her, but she comes up against some good race-fit horses over 1300m here. We last saw her winning a Group 1 over 2200m so the short trip first up must be some query. DEPLOY got the run of the race last start and this is harder than what he faced there. He's got race fitness on his side, draws to get a gun run once again, and this is his best trip unlike some others, so he goes into the frame again. But the two I'm keen to back are CANNYESCENT and DIXIE BLOSSOMS. Cannyescent will probably be the fittest horse in the race here and was unlucky not to win the Aurie's Star in Melbourne last start behind Hey Doc. Grande Rosso has already come out of that race and won, so the form is good. Carries the minimum weight here and has won over track and distance. Happy to take $5. Dixie Blossoms resumes from a spell with two trial wins under her belt. First up last prep she only went down by 0.3L before eventually running 3rd in Group 1 company behind Foxplay. She could either lead or settle last here. Hoping she leads and taking $6. EURO ANGEL should have won first up. Her second up record isn't as good though and this is a better field.
TIP: Cannyescent / Dixie Blossoms EW
Race 6
Took a while to split a few in this race but I've landed with BONNY O'REILLY narrowly on top, mainly due to the fact she could be leading Omei Sword by a number of lengths coming into the straight. She is undefeated at the track, undefeated at the distance, and returned with a super win first up from a spell with a big weight. Drops down to 55kg here and although she draws wide, she should be able to slide across and possibly lead. She'll be there for a very long way. OMEI SWORD is the best horse in the race and she's worth another chance here after she knuckled at the start in her first up run. She still finished the race off pretty well, and if she's at her best she is simply better than the rest of them. They'll ride her very quiet from barrier 11 due to the fact she's bled previously, which means she'll have plenty of ground to make up in the straight. Looking forward to seeing GHISONI first up for 455 days. She is a very talented mare on her day and is undefeated first up. Probably have to take her on here after that long off the track but wouldn't discount her. Definitely include both RAVI and GIBRALTAR GIRL for the Snowdens.
TIP: Bonny O'Reilly
Race 7
Really think MENARI is the real deal and deserves to be the short-priced favourite here. He was absolutely enormous first up when carrying 60.5kg to an impressive victory at this track. Drops down to 56kg here and for reference, gets a 5kg weight swing in his favour over SIEGE OF QUEBEC here, who ran 2nd to him that day. Draws wide but he came from worse than midfield last start and can do so again. Keen. I think INVADER is huge odds here and worth an each way bet at $17. He was well supported first up but failed to flatter. He may be improved with that run under his belt and although he's probably better over further, Hugh Bowman takes over today and he can run a much better race. PARIAH was another that was impressive in winning first up, aided by a terrific ride from Shinn. Draws perfectly in barrier 3 here and both his wins have come at this track. Will be right in the finish. KEMENTARI is one I'm really looking forward to seeing back at the track. He ran 2nd on debut behind stablemate Malahat and then bolted in at his next outing. We haven't seen him since then, except for two trials, the latest of which was very stylish. Big watch.
TIP: Menari / Invader EW (Best Value)
Race 8
TANGO RAIN was a good winner last start following a good first up run despite being caught wide, so he can go on with it here. Up in grade, down in weight, and if the rail is playing hot then this is the horse to be on. I think he's a clear top pick from the good barrier and happy to back him at $3.20. I was pretty keen to back SUPREME EFFORT after a great first up run behind Bonny O'Reilly, but the jockey booking of Lee Magorrian seriously dents my confidence. He's finished in the top two in four of his five starts when second up, has a great record at the distance and draws perfectly. $15 is a great price but the jockey just doesn't ride winners, especially in town. We were on DENPURR first up at double figure odds and she was completely butchered. She never saw daylight in the straight and went to the line barely tested, beaten 1.3L. Her first up record is significantly better than her second up record though, so despite McEvoy taking over for the ride, I'm going to take her on today. MANA is flying and goes from Jason Collett to Hugh Bowman, which is a huge positive. Draws perfectly but the form out of his races hasn't exactly stood up. Alluvion (the horse who ran 2nd to him last start) dropped back to midweek class and went under as the short-priced favourite. Expect a big showing from ZUMBELINA who didn't handle the heavy tracks last prep. She's undefeated at the track and can run a big race fresh here. Backing Tango Rain, Supreme Effort the value despite negative jockey booking. Zumbelina danger.
Tough way to end the card. If PEACOCK can't win this then he may never win again. I was against him first up because he's never won in five starts when first up, but he's got a good second up record and gets a 2.5kg weight swing on THE PHARAOH. At his peak distance now of 1400m, which is the distance that he won a Group 2 at, draws well and has absolutely no excuses today. Taking $6.50. WAYANKA finds a winnable race after coming back to Sydney from Melbourne. Won at Flemington two starts back and was slightly unlucky not to finish closer last start. 1400m is his pet distance and Waller has said to ignore any starts over 1400m because he just doesn't get the trip. Decent each way bet in a race where the favourites are vulnerable. THE PHARAOH will lead but draws wide and may have to do some early work. He is a definite place chance and if he had have drawn a better barrier he would have been top pick, but he may just be slightly vulnerable late. The drop back in trip suits him though. EBENOS comes through a strong race and now has a 1400m run under his belt so look for him to improve. Big watch on INTERLOCUTER first up but he probably needs longer.
