Welcome to our horse racing preview and betting tips for racing at Rosehill on Saturday, May 16th.
Rosehill hosts what is normally the standalone feature meeting at Scone this time of year. The track for Saturday is currently rated a Good 4 and even though there is a slight bit of rain predicted, it should remain in that range.
Check out our preview and betting tips for every race at Rosehill below!
Rosehill Racing Tips: Saturday, May 16th
Best Bet: Race 7 - (5) Fituese
Best Value: Race 9 - (1) Bon Amis
Highway to kick things off. As always they interest me very little so will keep it short and sweet. (6) Shamuso Sho comes off two impressive wins with a combined margin of 9L. They've only been an Armidale maiden and a Class 1 at Narromine but he's done it with ease and deserves a crack at a Class 3 Highway here. JMac goes straight on and despite the wide draw he looks hard to beat. (5) Laughing Or Crying ran very well first up and backed that up with a win in a similar race to this on the Kenso last start. He's never finished out of the top two from three starts when third up from a spell so he looks underrated once again at $14.
Value: (5) Laughing Or Crying $14
Happy to take on (1) Costello here who carries top weight and steps up from 1800m to 2400m. Outside of him there's plenty of good chances and some value in some of them. (2) Fanciful Toff should be ready now with three runs under the belt back in Victoria. He ran 2nd to Too Close The Sun last time out and that horse has since won the Warrnambool Cup so as long as Bowman can give him a good run from the wide gate, he'll be hard to beat. (10) Harpo Marx was my best bet when he ran last start but he was a big drifter right before the jump and was given one of the more mind-boggling rides you'll see. From barrier 1 he ended up three-wide at the back and then came widest on the turn. That was his first attempt at 2400m after stepping up from 1900m, so forgive him for that.. (9) Terwilliker, (11) He Runs Away and (13) Wild Impact all come out of the same race at Warwick Farm and all finished within a head of each other. Wild Impact gets a slight weight swing on the other two, but the double figures about Terwilliker and He Runs Away certainly appeal more, especially as He Runs Away was scratched from an easier race on Wednesday to race here. He Runs Away and Terwilliker both good bets here, playing trifectas with 2, 9, 10, 11, 13.
Value: (9) Terwilliker $15
Fascinating race here and I'm very keen to bet. (4) Marboosha is a huge price at $9.00 here. She won the Miss Finland on debut at Muswellbrook and then came to town and recorded another convincing win over 1100m at Warwick Farm, despite sitting three-wide the trip. Rachel King obviously has a big opinion of her because she jumps off (1) Macroura who is favourite for this in order to keep the ride on Marboosha. She draws a bit tricky in 11 but she looks to be improving with each start and the signs are there that she's expected to go very well again. Glen Boss had the option to ride Macroura, but he instead rides the stablemate (11) Cross The Rubicon, who is also a huge price at $41. She ran in the same race at Muswellbrook on debut against Marboosha and they actually started the same price. Cross The Rubicon was actually well backed on the day but only managed 4th, beaten 1.8L. She raced greenly so should take plenty of improvement and we've obviously seen the form franked. Marboosha is $9.00 here while Cross The Rubicon is $41 and I won't be letting her go around that price from a good draw. JMac picks up the ride on Macroura who hasn't done anything wrong in two career starts an draws the inside gate which helps. (8) Newsreader ran a very good race on debut behid Macroura on the Kenso and should take plenty of improvement from that. She drew wide that day and had to come from well back in the field, but was only beaten half-a-length. From a better draw today she's a super chance.
Value: (11) Cross The Rubicon $41
Masked Crusader was set to be my best bet of the day but he's been scratched this morning so (1) Dawn Passage goes on top. He bounced back with authority last start, suited by the return to firmer ground after running on wet tracks in his first two starts back. He sat three-wide and still belted them in the Hawkesbury Guineas, and he looks the one to beat again today. (5) Rocha Clock was another impressive last-start winner, coming from last to sail home down the outside on the Kenso. Prior to that she was very firm in the market against Rubisaki so she deserves plenty of respect.
I'll side with the better price about (3) Lashes here, who is at $4.20 compared to $2.50 for (9) Adelong. They meet again, having met last preparation where Lashes beat Adelong by 2.8L. Adelong didn't get the best run that day and they did run quick, so the margin may have been a bit flattering, and Adelong also gets a 6kg swing in her favour from when they met that day, but I still don't think they should be that far apart in the market. Adelong does have a run under the belt - she went down as the favourite first up at Canterbury. The stable did say before the race they would have liked to have got one more trial into her before that, so expect her to take improvement fitness-wise. Lashes is first up here and has trialled well. She carries 59.5kg fresh but she was dominant in her first two starts last prep and might just be slightly better. (1) Akasaki has to carry a huge weight with 62kg but I actually think he represents a bit of value at $19. He's got Bowman on board and has a very good first up record, with three wins and three placings from six starts. The negative is his poor record at the track and distance but fresh might be his best chance to overcome that. (10) L'cosmo probably runs a place like she always does.
This race is a bit of a headache. (1) Graff is favourite and he's one horse I've barred for life. He gets the perfect set up to win this but I have no confidence that he will actually do it, because he hasn't won since August 2018. (3) Ranier produced a huge effort first up to slice his way through the field from well back, just getting up to roll his stablemate Phaistos on the line. Phaistos then came out and won his next start before running 2nd in the Scone Cup, where we saw another horse Ranier beat - Dr Drill - win. The slight query is his form can mix a bit second up, and he drops back from 1400m to 1300m. But I'll stick with him because there's not much else to like. (4) Lanciato ra 4th to Ranier and wasn't beaten far at all. He's now third up from a spell and gets a 2kg weight swing in his favour on Ranier, so if they are able to run on from back in the field, he has claims. (10) Trumbull went close last start and had no luck before that. He drops to 54kg and finds a race where he can be at least a place chance. Interestingly, JMac jumps off him to get back on (2) Brave Song. I've been wanting to back Brave Song for a while now (and have on a few occasions) but he just hasn't shown the same level of form that he did earlier in his career.
(5) Fituese looks one of the bets of the day here. She was arrogant first up on the Kenso, sitting three-wide the trip and bolting in to win by 2.8L. She's now won four of her six career starts and the two she lost she had no luck at all. She's destined for better races and with even luck she looks the winner here. Wouldn't be surprised to see her start much shorter than $2.40. (3) Enfleurage and (4) Aquitaine are two Godolphin fillies who resume from spells and both have three wins from seven career starts. They're basically the same horse - they've followed identical paths into this, trialling on the 27th April and then the 4th May. Fresh is actually often best with these sorts of fillies from this stable, so I think they'll be wound up ready to win and have to be respected at around $11 and $8.50 respectively. James McDonald chooses not to ride either of those, instead sticking with (10) Military Magic, and he gets down to 54kg to do so, which is his absolute limit. She was beaten as favourite first up on the heavy ground but she was unbeaten leading into that and can bounce back on a firmer deck here. $12 is a big price about her. (9) Satin Socks next best.
This is the most open race of the day and probably the hardest race in Australia. (1) Amangiri comes off a win in the Hawkesbury Cup but she carried 55kg that day and has 59kg today so it's a new challenge for her. (2) Teleplay is big odds at $16. She was good first up before being outclassed last start in the G1 TAB Classic, but she has a good third up record and actually won at this stage of her last campaign after a diappointing second up run. She's drawn wide in barrier 18 but at her best she'd give this a shake. (4) Sweet Scandal comes off a solid win in the Hawkesbury Crown and gets conditions to suit once again today so she has to be respected once again. (12) Romani Girl won well first up last prep and was sent out a winner at the end of last prep. She draws wide but she isn't out of place in a race like this and should be thrown in at $26. The chances certainly don't end there. Something small on Teleplay and ROmani Girl but zero confidence in this.
Value: (12) Romani Girl $26
(12) Dirty Work is our favourite here and I've backed him at his past two starts where he's won both, but I'm not quite sure how he's favourite here. They've both been on the Kensington and he's jumping straight from a BM78 to a Listed race here, drawn barrier 1 at Rosehill in a big field. I have to take him on. (1) Bon Amis is fresh into this but he profiles very well. He's won five races from nine starts at this track and distance and has finished 2nd in two more. He's got three wins and two placings from six starts when first up, he draws a soft gate and Hugh Bowman is booked to ride. He's an each way bet all day at $11. (8) Noble Boy has switched stables from Todd Blowes to Clare Cunningham. He's always promised plenty and I'd watch the market very closely leading into the race. Plenty of other chances in the race but Bon Amis will be my play each way.
