Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for racing at Rosehill on Saturday, June 29th.
The nine-race card is headlined by the Listed Civic Stakes (Race 7). The track is currently rated a Heavy 9 range and even with fine weather predicted, I'd be surprised to see any significant upgrade.
I've offered my thoughts on every race below.
Rosehill Racing Tips: Saturday, June 29th
Best Bet: Race 6 - (8) Handle The Truth E/W
Best Value Bet: Race 1 - (5) Onemore Sapphire E/W
Race 1
Highway to kick things off and I'm rarely on the money in these. (1) Mr Wong has been well-backed early and looks a deserved favourite after a big run in defeat in a similar race last start. That was over 1100m here at Randwick so the query today is the rise in trip to 1400m, as well as the rise in weight and wide draw. He did win over this distance last preparation though. (5) Onemore Sapphire looks a big price at $21. He's placed in four of his past five starts and the one he didn't place in, he ran 4th beaten 0.7L. Three of his past four starts have been in Highway Handicaps, so he clearly measures up and the Highway form is often the best form to follow. He'll have fitness on his side dropping back from 1500m. (17) Stratum's Rose can be thrown in at huge odds. She's a 50/1 chance with just one win from 15 starts. She's run 2nd in both starts when second up from a spell.
(5) Onemore Sapphire E/W
$21
Race 2
Looks a two-horse race between (2) So You Win and (6) White Boots. So You Win defeated White Boots last start by a length over 1800m here at Rosehill. White Boots gets a 2kg weight swing in his favour today but I don't think that will be enough to turn the tables. So You Win probably still has a bit more to come given he's only having his fourth run of the campaign and steps up to 2000m for the first time this prep. He's returned in terrific form and can go on with it today. Should handle the heavy track based on his record on soft ground.
Race 3
Competitive race. (2) England deserves favouritism and looks hard to beat. He's returned with two wins and a narrow defeat from three starts this preparation. He ran the best final sectionals of the race last start and the only query with him is whether he handles the heavy ground. (6) Lillith could be the value at $23. She steps up from midweek grade but she really turned her form around last start when she ran 2nd. The horse that ran 3rd came out and won on Wednesday so the form stood up and she's run top two in her two starts when third up from a spell. (1) Phaistos, (8) Think Free and (11) My Demetra all step up in class after recent wins in provincial company.
Race 4
Happy to stick with (7) Itz Lily after backing her when she won last start. She didn't have it easy either, she was trapped wide after 600m and had to tough it out. She's drawn wide today in barrier 11 but hopefully she can find cover and if she does, she'll prove hard to beat again. She's undefeated on wet ground from three starts. (10) Waking Moment ran a bottler first up at $151, beaten 0.8L and running the best final 600m of the race. Drawn well today so can sit closer in the run and her only career win to date was on heavy ground. She's a very unreliable commodity but she gets things to suit today. (13) Celtic Love is probably the value play in the race for me. She carries just 50.5kg and comes off a terrific run in defeat last start. She recorded the best final 400m of the race. Has placed in her only run on heavy ground to date and looks an each way chance with no weight.
Value: (13) Celtic Love $16
Race 5
Stayers Cup over 3200m on a Heavy 9. Doesn't get much worse from a betting point of view than that! If (1) Destiny's Kiss was carrying 59.5kg with a senior jockey on I'd have him on top, but he's got the 3kg apprentice on and that's enough for me to look elsewhere. His record on wet ground is very good and he comes off a surprise victory last start. (4) Doukhan looks to have been set for this after the Sydney Cup. He had eight weeks off and was sent around with 62kg last start, but he comes into this fitter after that run, drops back to 56.5kg and gets Blake Shinn on. He ran 2nd in this race last year. (6) Kellstorm is a rough chance on heavy ground. He's got three wins from five starts on this surface. (7) Social Element comes off two hurdles races but was placed in Listed grade last prep on the flat. Not hopeless third up here. (9) Terwiliker is the new kid on the block. He steps up sharply in grade from BM78 to Open company but can run well. Two wins from 20 starts is a concern though.
Race 6
Sticking with (8) Handle The Truth each way here. I was very keen on him first up and he unfortunately got caught wide on speed all race. Even so, he travelled into the straight like he was going to win by 5L, but the work told late and he faded out to finish 4th. With an easier run in transit he can win this. He's won his only start on heavy ground and prior to last start he was undefeated at the track and distance. (5) Oxford Tycoon has placed in both starts this prep and looks ready to win one third up from a spell now. (2) Kool Vinnie is some sort of each way chance at huge odds first up. His first up record is good and so is his record at the track and distance. He's also won on heavy ground. The wide draw isn't ideal but he's not hopeless. (10) Metamorphic gets blinkers on again so keep an eye on the market.
(8) Handle The Truth E/W
$7.50
Race 7
Wide open race with any number of hopes. Two mainly that I'll be backing, but not with any great confidence. (4) Firsthand comes into this third up from a spell and gets blinkers applied for the first time. He was a winner of a similar race third up last preparation and he should be peaking for this after two runs in Melbourne. He's got a good record on this track. (10) Gaulois hasn't raced on heavy ground in a long time but his overall record on the surface is good, with three top-two finishes. He's never missed a place from his six starts here at Rosehill and has won two of his four starts when third up from a spell. They are $6.00 and $7.00 chances respectively so something small on both.
Also backing: (10) Gaulois $7.00
Race 8
Two I'll be backing here. (1) Bon Amis looks hard to beat after a good first up run behind Deprive in Listed company at Randwick on eavy ground. The only real query today is what the inside part of the track is going to be like at this stage of the day as he draws barrier 1. But he's never missed the top two from six starts at the track and distance, gets in well with the claim and has a good record on heavy ground. He looks the one to beat. I'll also be backing (11) Wagner who comes off a good win over Spiritual Pursuit, who then came out and won its next start. He carries no weight today with just 53kg on his back and the only query with him is the heavy track. He failed at his only start on heavy ground but I'll give him another chance.
Race 9
Another competitive race to finish the day. (5) Love Shack Baby looks a decent each way bet at $9.00. He ran a bottler first up to finish 3rd in a race which has already produced two subsequent winners. His second up record is far better than his first up record (he's never missed a place second up) so I'd expect him to run well again today. (4) Destiny's Own was ridden conservatively last start and flashed home in the best final splits of the race. He's racing in great form and should be thereabouts again. (11) Nicochet ran 2nd in that same race as Destiny's Own. Comes into this third up from a spell and will be in the finish again. He's becoming a little bit of a non-winner though. Chances don't end there.
(5) Love Shack Baby E/W
$9.00
