Welcome to our horse racing preview and betting tips for racing at Rosehill on Saturday, June 13th.
Sydney racing takes place on what will be a very wet surface at Rosehill, where the track is currently rated a Heavy 9 and the rail is in the True position.
Find Tim Geers' preview and betting tips below!
Rosehill Racing Tips: Saturday, June 13th
Best Bet: Race 7 - (10) Lashes
Best Value: Race 3 - (3) High Low Bet
I was keen on (9) Oh Say when she was due to line up at the midweeks last week but they scratched her from the heavy track, so it will be interesting to see if they leave her in today given it's going to be heavy once again. She's a giant of a filly - you can see that from her latest trial when she drawfs the second horse - and her two recent trials have been very good. She's gone to the line under a stranglehold in both of those and has looked to have had a lot more under the hood should she be asked. She has good tactical speed so she'll roll forward from barrier 5 and with even luck, I think she's the one to beat. (1) Lady Banff gets JMac on first up from her break. She won her first two starts in Brisbane impressively, before bumping into Gotta Kiss which is a decent form line. She failed in the Gold Coast Magic Millions and returns today with one trial under the belt, which she won. She'll definitely be competitive. (3) Meadow Land only scrambled home first up at Newcastle but him and the second horse did put 6L on the third horse, which is generally a good sign. The second horse then came out and failed, which is a concern for the form, but he also had no luck whatsoever. Pretty keen on Oh Say here, just needs to handle the ground.
I'll butter up again on (15) Art Cadeau here. I backed him in the Highway last start when he ran 2nd to (2) Leg Work, beaten 0.5L. He took the sit on that occasion and took the rails run in the straight, but I think with Tim Clark going on today, they'll try and go back to leading with him. He gets barrier 2 so he should be able to find the front, and he'll be tough to run down once again. He gets a 2kg weight swing on Leg Work and Leg Work draws wide, so that may be enough to turn the tables. (11) Rockarosa was a good winner at Canberra last start, slicing through runners in the straight and bursting through late to win. Prior to that he raced at Kensington but didn't get much luck in the straight. Heavy ground is no issue and he can be competitive. (5) Ready To Humble next best.
This is a competitive little race. (1) Bound To Win is a deserved favourite and the horse to beat. Since the blinkers went on, she's really hit form, recording back-to-back wins at Warwick Farm and then here at Rosehill. The horse she beat last start then came out and won midweek. The heavy ground is no issue, nor is the rise to 1500m. She does have to carry 59.5kg today and draws wide in barrier 11, so she'll need a good ride, but she looks hard to toss in the form she's in. I think the value is (3) High Low Bet, who I've made my best value bet of the day. She always takes a couple of runs to get fit but third up is when she starts to peak. All five wins have been on wet ground, so she definitely gets conditions to suit, she'll just need some luck and a good ride from 13. The query is just how much of a start she gives them, but we should see improvement today. (5) Word For Word went close against Opacity last weekend and backs up quickly today, while (6) Miss Einstein is running out of chances.
Value: (3) High Low Bet $23
A seven-runner 2400m race with five of those runners belonging to Chris Waller, and no coincidence they are the top five in betting! These races are a nightmare to work out. I was with (4) The Lord Mayor last start and I'm going to stick with him here. He had to go back near last from the wide draw and he worked home well enough, albeit comprehensively beaten by (1) Wu Gok. The Lord Mayor is probably better suited with the small field which means he won't be so far off them, and he generally takes a few runs to come good, so fourth up, up to 2400m now, with Bowman taking over are all positives. Wu Gok is the best wet tracker in the race and he proved that with his dominant display last start, bolting in by 3.8L first up from a 10-week break. Different race today stepping up to 2400m and carrying top weight, but he maps well again and can definitely win. (3) Carzoff isn't without a hope.
Mo's Crown has been scratched this morning so that leaves me with (8) Outback Diva as my one bet in the race. This is a test for her given most of her form has been at the provincials, but she's unbeaten from two starts when second up from a spell, and both have been dominant victories. She was only beaten a nose first up at Kembla and she should come on plenty from that run. Tim Clark booked from the wide barrier suggests to me they might ride her more forward, which I like. $14 looks a good price. (2) Rari is probably your quinella horse. He doesn't know how to run a bad race, but he also doesn't know how to win. He's won just once from 10 starts and has run 2nd on five other occasions. With that said, his last three defeats have been at the hands of Rubsaki, Subpoenaed and Chat, which is all very solid form. He can and should run well.
Probably the toughest race of the day here. (10) Across Dubai made his Australian debut first up, beaten just under 3L by (6) Soldier Of Love, but he didn't get much luck at a crucial stage of the straight. Just when he was trying to wind up, he got cut off and checked, before picking up back on the inside and finding the line nicely. As a UK import, he probably doesn't have much of a turn of foot so getting cut off at that point was very detrimental, but you could see he was strong through the line and the step up to 1800m is going to suit. Bowman sticks with him and he draws low again, which isn't necessarily ideal, but he's worth another go at $11. Soldier Of Love has won two on the trot and has no issue with the wet ground. She does draw wide and carries more weight here stepping up in distance, but it's hard to knock her form. (12) Paths Of GLory is another European import that makes his Australian debut here. He's had three trials and hasn't been overly impressive but he does resume with blinkers on for the first time. (17) Birth of Venus isn't hopeless if she gets a run.
(10) Across Dubai E/W
$11
A very competitive race here but I'm sticking with (10) Lashes. She was comfortably beaten by (7) Adelong first up but I think she can turn the tables here. She gets a 6kg weight swing in her favour and she should come on plenty from that first up run. She's got a great second up record which suggests she will take improvement, and we already know she handles the wet ground. Hopefully Kerrin McEvoy can give her a good run and not get too far back, because if she's within striking distance at the top of the straight, I think she'll win. It's hard to knock Adelong who has five wins and two 2nds from seven career starts. JMac jumps back on her after being double booked last start. There does look a fair bit of pressure though so she won't get an easy run on speed, which also hopefully sets it up for something like Lashes. (5) Blazing Miss has won two on the bounce and definitely deserves consideration. The horse she beat last start has since come out and won. (11) Superium has a great second up record and his first up run was OK. (6) Inanup goes well fresh and trialled well. He might just find a hot race first up but worth including in exotics.
I'll be with three runners in a very open affair. (9) Outrageous finally draws a gate for the first time this prep. In three runs this campaign, he's started from barriers 13/14, 10/13 and 8/9. He draws barrier 4 here and he should be able to land in a perfect spot in midfield. I'll give him one more chance because he's a decent price and maps well, and he hasn't been far away at all. He also gets the winkers back on today. (6) Sure Knee was ridden upside down last start but that was because JMac was forced into a move given the complete lack of pace in the race. She did well to battle on to finish 2nd. Expect her to be ridden cold today from barrier 15, and this late in the day, the wide part of the straight may be the place to be. She won easily on wet ground at Flemington third up last prep, so I don't think we can drop off her yet, especially as she's $8.00 today. (15) Got Unders is worth throwing in at huge odds. He should kick up on the inside and hold a position. He's got a good third up record with eight placings from 11 starts, and he has eight placings from 10 starts on heavy ground. (10) Toryjoy also excels on wet ground and she won first up last prep, but whether she can find her preferred role of leader here is the query. Better than a $15 chance.
Also backing: (6) Sure Knee $8.00 & (15) Got Unders $34
Pretty happy to take on the favourite (3) Bandersnatch here. I think he's been below par in his first two runs back and it might all stem back to when he was scratched at the gates the week before he resumed. He's not the only one I'm keen to oppose, with (5) Night Of Power another horse well in the market that I'll oppose. I think he will need the run and be better suited second up. That leaves me with (7) Handspun on top. She was beaten less than a length first up behind Adelong, which is seemingly a strong form reference. Granted, she drew the inside gate and just got a good run the whole race, but she still wasn't beaten far and it was a sound return. She won at this track and distance second up last preparation when ridden by Bowman, and he jumps back aboard today. She draws wide and the query is whether she's at her best on wet ground, but I'll give her the chance to prove herself with $6.00 on offer. (11) Cuban Royale has returned in good order, with a sound return behind Masked Crusader followed by a good effort behind Esperance and Fituese last start. Third up here and looks over the odds at $19.
