Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for racing at Rosehill on Saturday, July 27th.
The Listed Winter Challenge headlines the nine-race card, with the track rated a Good 4 and the rail in the 6m position.
We've previewed every race on the card below!
Rosehill Racing Tips: Saturday, July 27th
Best Bet: Race 8 - (4) Bon Amis
Best Value Bet: Race 5 - (3) High Power $21 / (7) Raqeeq $20
Race 1 (Market)
Really only interested in the favourite (1) True Detective here. He should be very hard to beat. He won on debut back in February and resumed from a 19-week spell two weeks ago when beaten a nose by Spend, who could be a handy type. That was on heavy ground but his debut win was on good ground so he should have no problems with the firmer track today. Drawn awkwardly but expect him to roll forward and with any luck he should be winning this.
Race 2 (Market)
Hate betting in these races but there's two that mainly interest me. (2) Pat's Nipper had absolutely no luck in a similar race two starts ago, which was over this track and distance. He should have gone close to winning it but never got clear running in the straight. He went back to Tamworth last start and was a well-backed $1.60 favourite but could only manage 2nd. Back to a Highway today and Bowman is booked to ride which should give him his chance to win. He's the one to beat. (5) Assault'n'bathory looks a decent each way bet at $6.50. He's placed in his past five starts. Two of his last three have been in Highways and he's been beaten less than a length in both. Splitting those was a win at Goulburn. Last start he actually finished ahead of (4) Onemore Sapphire and today he gets a 2.5kg weight swing in his favour. Onemore Sapphire came out last start and won so the form from the Highway he contested last start has stood up. He'll go forward and give a good sight.
(5) Assault'n'bathory
$6.50
Race 3 (Market)
Competitive little race. I'll stick with the favourite (2) Connemara who has had two starts back from a spell and has been beaten a nose on both occasions. She ran the best sectionals of the race last start and she won third up last preparation so she should be peaking for this. She's won three of her six starts on good ground, so the firmer track today shouldn't be much of an issue. (3) Jardin Rouge has won five of her eight career starts, in fact she's won five in a row. They've all been in Queensland so this is her toughest test to date but she certainly knows how to win. (5) Stella Sea Sun comes off some solid midweek performances. This is harder but she's going well and she draws to get the run of the race from barrier 2. I'm prepared to take on (4) Malea Magic.
Race 4 (Market)
Tricky little race. (5) River Bird is absolutely flying, with four wins from five starts this preparation. She rises in trip to 1350m today and also rises slightly in the weights, so she faces another test. With that said, she recorded the fastest final 200m when winning last start so that tells me the rise in trip might suit her and she's obviously a strong winning chance again. The other little query is the firmer track today. Her past few wins have come on wet tracks so it remains to be seen if she's as effective on good ground. (2) Fortensky was only 0.4L off her last start and that was his first run in 32 weeks. He should come on significantly from that run and he looks to get the run of the race from barrier 3. Bowman takes over today and he looks a winning chance at $5.00. (3) Royal Tudor could be the value at $17. He had nothing go right in his first couple of starts this preparation and in his past three starts he's carried 64kg, 62.5kg and 64.5kg. He comes off country form but he's been good here in the past, in fact his record at this track and distance is very solid. He's at the right stage of his prep to come back to town and he drops 11kg from his last start so he won't know himself. (1) Gresham should appreciate getting back onto firmer ground.
Value: (3) Royal Tudor $17
Race 5 (Market)
Dislike these staying races but I've got (6) Ilwendo on top after a dominant victory at Doomben last time out. He's one of the few horses in this race who seems to handle the firm ground so if he gets an easy enough run up on speed, he should take plenty of catching. (10) Our Candidate looks the main danger after a good run in defeat behind (4) Kaapfever last time out. Kaapfever then went on to win again at its next start and Our Candidate gets a 3.5kg weight swing in its favour so should be able to overturn the 0.2L margin between them. The query for Our Candidate is the fact he's had 11 starts on good ground for just three placings. (3) High Power and (7) Raqeeq are both at $20+ but I think both can outrun their odds. High Power has been going OK but he'll really appreciate getting back onto firm ground today. His record suggests he's much better suited on firmer decks than wet ground, which he's been running on in his past three starts. Raqeeq is a similar case. His three career wins have all been on good ground, while he's had 14 starts on wet ground and is yet to record a win.
Value: (3) High Power $21 & (7) Raqeeq $20
Race 6 (Market)
(5) Wimlah and (8) Front Sight look likely to fight this out, with (13) Sharapova perhaps the value. Wimlah and Front Sight ran the quinella at Warwick Farm last start, with Wimlah getting the upper hand late to win by 0.5L. Front Sight started the $2.40 on that occasion and he gets blinkers reapplied for today's race. He also gets a 2kg weight swing in his favour. I really don't think there is a great deal separating the two. Front Sight draws better in barrier 5 but I'm going to stick with Wimlah, who went to the line stronger last start and recorded the best final 200m in doing so. Nash Rawiller will be a jockey to follow in coming weeks/months - he'll be hungry for winners and desperate to prove a point. Sharapova was well backed and proved too strong first up at Warwick Farm. Not hopeless.
Race 7 (Market)
This is anyone's guess but there's one horse that stands out to me as a decent each way bet and that's (6) Seaway. The only negatives I can find is the booking of Tommy Berry and also the awkward barrier. Other than that, he looks well placed. He was only beaten 1.8L first up after being caught wide without cover throughout the race. He's got two wins and a 2nd from three starts when second up from a spell and prior to last start he was undefeated at this track and distance. The firm ground is no issue so provided he gets a decent steer, he should find himself very competitive in this. Any number of winning chances in the race though. I'd be most wary of (1) Stampede and the favourite (3) Eckstein.
Race 8 (Market)
(4) Bon Amis looks the standout in this field. If you're willing to forgive him for an uncharacteristic failure last start, his form looks very good for this. First up he was beaten 0.5L by Deprive and he did start favourite last start when he went poorly. His third up record isn't terrific but I think he'll really appreciate getting back onto firmer ground today. His record at this track adn distance is terrific. He's got four wins and two 2nds from seven starts here, so from the good draw he looks the one to beat. (1) Delectation Girl is the interesting runner, making her Australian debut having previously raced in America. So far, the American horses that have come to Australia have done absolutely zilch, so I'm prepared to take her on, but she has trialled pretty nicely. (8) You Make Me Smile might just need the run but if she goes well, she could be a moral next start. (12) Goldfinch can go well at longer odds.
Race 9 (Market)
Keen to see the return of the promising (1) Greyworm here. He's got an unblemished first up record with two wins from as many starts, with three wins from six starts overall. He trialled nicely at Hawkesbury leading into this. He should jump and take up a position close to the speed from barrier 11. The claim for Brock Ryan helps and if he can just get an economical run from the barrier, he'll take plenty of beating. (2) Sharp Hussler could be the value at $8.00. He had no luck first up at Randwick. He won his only start at this track and distance and his second up record is good. (4) Rare Episode is in good form and can be competitive, while (8) Deity is knocking on the door.
Value: (2) Sharp Hussler $8.00
