Welcome to our horse racing preview and betting tips for racing at Rosehill on Saturday, March 28th.
Another huge day of racing is set down for Rosehill this Saturday, with two Group 1s on the card, the Tancred Stakes and Vinery Stud Stakes. There's also four Group 3s and two Group 2s on the card to support the two features.
The track is currently rated a Soft 7, with more rain predicted for Saturday, so plan for a wet track. The rail is in the 6m position.
Check out our race-by-race preview and betting tips below!
Rosehill Racing Tips: 2020 Tancred Stakes Day
Best Bet: Race 6 - (9) Verry Elleegant
Best Value Bet: Race 8 - (14) Positive Peace / (11) Girl Tuesday
Race 1 - BM88 Hcp 1400m (Market)
(10) Royal Celebration goes on top to start the day. He should roll forward from his wide draw and being on pace at Rosehill recently has proven to be advantageous. He's been around the mark in all four starts this prep and he really finds a race he can win today. The 1400m is ideal - he's never finished out of the top two from five starts at the distance - and he goes well here at Rosehill so he'll be tough to run down. (7) Top Prospect resumed with a win on the Kensington track and should be able to improve once again off that run. He should go forward from the inside gate and if the track remains soft, he should be suited. He just won't want it too wet. (12) Sausedge started favourite in the Listed National Sprint at Canberra last start but could only manage 5th. She was a dominant winner over this track and distance at the end of last prep so with the light weight she should be respected.
(10) Royal Celebration
$3.60
Race 2 - G3 T L Baillieu Hcp 1400m (Market)
This is practically a no bet race. (5) Return With Honour had no luck in the Black Opal at Canberra last start and his form prior to that was strong enough to see him bounce back here. He's drawn horribly but I trust Bowman won't get it wrong again. His stablemate (6) Time Is Precious was only narrowly beaten in the Magic Night Stakes last start and should be at her peak third up from a spell here. Pretty happy to sit out of this one or just have something small on the two Gerald Ryan runners.
Value: (6) Time Is Precious $8.00
(5) Return With Honour
$4.50
Race 3 - G2 Tulloch Stakes 2000m (Market)
(1) Quick Thinker looks to find a very suitable race here and he will find this much easier than last start, where he ran 3rd to Funstar and Probabeel in the Phar Lap Stakes. That's Group 1 form and he raced like he would relish a step up in distance. JMac goes on today, he draws soft and the wet ground shouldn't be an issue. Looks hard to beat. (4) Diasonic has good form behind the likes of Paradee and Nonconformist. Paradee has since come out and won a G3 at Moonee Valley, while Nonconformist could win whatever he wants wherever he lines up next. The blinkers go back on but it's hard to know what Richard Laming runners in Sydney will perform like. (5) Zebrowski has won both starts this prep in stylish fashion. He's still unexposed but this is a sharp rise in class. (3) Relucent is going well but just doesn't win.
Race 4 - G3 Neville Selwood Stakes 2000m (Market)
This is a very tough race to work out because there's very few in the race that put their hand and there's a couple of real pretenders involved. You can leave me out of taking $2.40 for (1) Life Less Ordinary. He's going to find this much easier than what he's contested so far this prep but he's an eight-year-old that hasn't won since he saluted at the Gold Coast in May last year. He's finished behind the likes of Alizee, Dreamforce, Te Akau Shark, Verry Elleegant and Master Of Wine recently, so it's a steep step back in opposition, but he's well short enough in the market for mine. (10) Maid Of Ore could be the each way bet in the race at $8.50. She was 3.5L off Mugatoo in the Canberra Cup two starts ago, before a luckless trip in the Albury Cup last time out. She gets a nice draw in gate 4 here and a low weight so at $6.50/$2.10 she's probably the one I'd be on. (2) Night's Watch is one pretender, (8) Aliferous is another.
(10) Maid Of Ore E/W
$6.50
Race 5 - G3 Star Kingdom Stakes 1200m (Market)
Three of four main chances to highlight here and I'm keen to bet. (1) Kementari was my tip for The Galaxy last week, but they scratched him from that and saved him for this instead. He raced at the top level throughout his career before being retired to stud. He was a dud at stud so returns from a year off the track as a gelding. He always races well fresh and his recent trial was enormous. He carries more weight than the rest of the field but he's drawn the inside and should be very hard to beat if he's anywhere near his best. James McDonald was booked to ride him last week but he's on (4) Brave Song instead here. He's much better than what he showed last prep, where he just didn't come up. He trialled well recently and the booking of JMac suggests to me he might be back. His first up record is terrific but the query is his poor record at the track. Again, if he's back to his best, he'll be a big player here. He's at $12. Finally, (12) Handle The Truth is a great chance in this. He won first up in Canberra and his second up record is oustanding, with three wins and a 2nd from five starts. He's won five from eight at the distance and three from four at the track and distance. $7.50 is a nice price. Happy to take on the favourite (9) Villami who might struggle with the rise in distance and she doesn't go as well second up. Backing Kementari, Brave Song and Handle The Truth.
Value: (4) Brave Song $12 / (12) Handle The Truth $7.50
Race 6 - G1 H E Tancred Stakes 2400m (Market)
(9) Very Elleegant is an absolute moral here and the best bet of the day. I was dead keen on her last week in the Ranvet Stakes, where she just found one better in the form of an elite European Group 1 horse, Addeybb. She is probably even better suited up to 2400m here. She has two wins and a 2nd from three starts at Rosehill, she won her only start at the distance dominantly, and she will absolutely relish the conditions. She's been able to put herself right up on speed this prep which will once again help at Rosehill, where on pacers have been favoured in recent weeks. I struggle to see anything beating her here. (6) Mugatoo will be better off with that 2400m run under his belt from last start. (1) Avilius will want to sit closer if he's any chance of running Verry Elleegant down.
(9) Verry Elleegant
$2.10
Race 7 - G1 Vinery Stud Stakes 2000m (Market)
(1) Funstar should be hard to beat again here, with conditions playing right into her favour. She turned the tables on Probabeel in the Phar Lap Stakes last start, with the simple formula being dry=Probabeel and wet=Funstar. The step up from 1500m to 2000m remains a little query but she's got an abundance of class and I expect her to win again. (2) Probabeel was game on a clearly unsuited surface in the Phar Lap. It's not going to be any drier here so she might struggle to turn the tables. (3) Missile Mantra is being underestimated here and I don't think she should be. She never got any clear running two starts back behind Probabeel and Funstar, and she was beaten just 0.5L at Kembla last start. She might well be suited stepping up to 2000m. (6) Subpoenaed isn't as classy as Probabeel but she can certainly be competitive.
Race 8 - G2 Emancipation Stakes 1500m (Market)
Competitive edition of the Emancipation. There's a couple at decent odds to back here. (14) Positive Peace is well out of her grade but I think she's a chance here. She's won four from five this prep and although they've been in far lesser grade than this, the form has really proved strong. Two starts ago she beat Subpoenaed and Asiago, who then came out and won the Kembla Grange Classic at her next start. Positive Peace then won by 2.8L last start and defied her poor record on heavy ground. If she can get across to lead without being pestered too much, she could run a very cheeky race at double figure odds here. (11) Girl Tuesday might not be well suited first up on heavy ground but she has won twice from three starts when first up, including a dominant win over this distance last prep. She's also at double figure odds. (8) Sweet Deal lost no admirers last start and should go close again from the low draw.
Value: (11) Girl Tuesday $14
Race 9 - G3 Doncaster Prelude 1500m (Market)
(3) Cascadian hasn't had any luck this prep but James McDonald jumps on today and that could all change. He was narrowly beaten first up, before Glen Boss used him as a bumper car, and last start he somehow got pocketed in the middle of the track. Drawn wide today but I trust JMac will ride him better than what he has been recently and the conditions will be no issue. At $6.00 he is a bet. (2) Star Of The Seas was a strong winner first up over 1100m last start and he could well win again but he steps up from 1100m to 1500m and James McDonald jumps off. (1) Gailo Chop is the blowout in the race at $26. He's first up since racing in the Kingston Town Classic at Ascot last December but he can go well fresh and he absolutely loves the wet. (15) Something Fast could be the big improver.
Value: (1) Gailo Chop $26
