Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for the Rosehill Gardens on Saturday, November 4th.
We have a nine-race card, with the track currently rated a Good 3. However, there’s between 5 and 15mm of rain predicted on Saturday morning, so we could be racing on a slow track.
In Episode 7 of the Before You Bet Podcast our horse racing specialist @Tim_Tips chats about the weekend's action at Flemington and previews and offers tips from all the biggest Australian horse races for this Friday and Saturday! Listen to the podcast on the media player below, or you can find the Before You Bet podcast on iTunes!
We have betting tips and comments for every race below.
ROSEHILL RACING TIPS
Best Bet: Race 9 New Universe
Best Value: Race 8 Isorich
Race 1
Looks race between the two favourites here and I’ve got the Snowden-trained NEUTRALITY on top after a nice trial on heavy ground at Wyong. We’ve seen a number of Snowden debutantes win in the city in recent months, and the fact this horse has won a trial on wet ground is a big tick. STUNTS finished 3rd on debut behind Legend Of Condor. Should appreciate the slight step up in trip and the rain will be no concern at all, being a son of Lonhro. TACTICAL FORMATION was well in the market on debut but ran poorly. He could be worth another chance at double figure odds.
TIP: Neutrality
Race 2
Leaning towards the two Chris Waller horses here with SPARKY LAD going on top. This horse won two starts ago before running 3rd to Goodfella last start. That horse then came out and won again, and now lines up in the Coolmoore Stud Stakes in Melbourne. Gets in light with the 3kg claim and the only concern would be the soft track given he failed on soft ground on debut. Prepared to give him another chance at $5.50. UNFORGOTTEN resumed with an easy win in a small field at Canterbury and should be able to go on with it. MARSUPIAL will enjoy the soft track, while KANDY and REKINDLED FORCE are both undefeated and deserve respect.
TIP: Sparky Lad EW
Race 3
Keen to take on TANGO RAIN here with 61.5kg on his back and there’s three that appeal. I’ve landed with PICK ME UP on top at a good each way price of $8. He was first up last start with 60kg on his back and did really well to finish 2nd. Drops in weight here to 55.5kg after the claim and his second up record is good. Draws well in barrier 2 and should go very close. POMELO can be forgiven for a poor first up run. She was caught three-wide the trip and tailed off at the back after a tough run. Will relish the good draw and the soft track here and should be able to bounce back to her form from last campaign. BEST GUESS was solid in winning a midweek race at Canterbury last start. First up he ran 2nd to White Moss, which is a good form line to follow. Draws barrier 1 here with 52.5kg on his back after the claim and should be right in the finish.
TIP: Best Guess / Pick Me Up EW
Race 4
Looks a two-horse race between BLACK ON GOLD and COLLATERAL and it purely depends what the track is rated as to what horse to back. If the track is soft, I’ll be backing Black On Gold, and if the track is heavy I’ll be backing COLLATERAL. Black On Gold was huge last start behind Interlocuter, who I think is a very good horse. Has a great record at the track and distance, draws well and carries 53kg. Performs well on soft ground but has never placed from four starts on heavy. Collateral, on the other hand, is undefeated from four starts on heavy. He resumed with an enormous run carrying 61kg, flashing home to run 2nd over 1400m. Undefeated at the track and two wins from three starts at the distance, draws well and will be much better for the first up run. Tipping Black On Gold but hold your bet until the race comes so we know the track rating.
TIP: Black On Gold
Race 5
Fairly ordinary edition of the TAB Highway Handicap but there is two runners that appeal. The first of those is I AM CAPITAN who has placed in all four starts this prep and only went down by a nose last start in a Highway Handicap on soft ground. Draws barrier 1 here and really should be able to challenge once again. Quite surprised we are getting $5.50. NEYLA’S GIRL is the other to have something on at $7.50. She was well-backed last start and duly saluted, beating a handy filly in Zonk in a midweek race at Canterbury. I’m tipping if Zonk was in this race she’d be a very shot favourite. Wet track is the unknown, and she draws poorly, but seems to be going well and can definitely give this a shake.
TIP: I Am Capitan / Neyla’s Girl EW
Race 6
Happy to stick with MORTAR PLATOON and IMPRAVIDO here after they finished near enough next to each other last start. Mortar Platoon got the better of Impravido on that occasion, and both horses now go up in the weights. Both appreciate soft ground, though, and there isn’t a great deal of depth to this race so they should be able to go close again. Impravido is $4 while Moratar Platoon is $9. VICTIME DE L’AMOUR carries just 51kg here and must be included at arund the $10 mark, while MALMAS is another Chris Waller runner that should be included at double figure odds. Very happy to take on CARZOFF.
TIP: Impravido / Mortar Platoon EW
Race 7
Another quinella I’m happy to back in again here with SLOW BURN and IN TIMES OF WAR. They filled the placings behind Osbourne Bulls last start, with In Times Of War visibly the better run. Slow Burn gets a 3kg weight swing today, however, and should be able to turn the tables, but will need a good ride from Blaike McDougall. In Times Of War should get a great run in midfield from barrier 6, and amazingly she’s never finished outside the top two from 11 career starts. I think that makes her an each-way moral here at $4.75/$1.83. PICARDY ROSE and MA TANTE others to consider at bigger odds.
TIP: In Times Of War EW
Race 8
Happy to be backing two runners here. The first is MY COUNTRY who broke through last start on soft ground at Randwick over this distance. She faces very similar conditions here, with soft ground expected once again and 51.5kg on her back again. Draws similarly in barrier 7 and there’s no reason she can’t go very close again today at $4.50. I think ISORICH is ridiculously over the odds. He’s won his past two starts and draws to get a dream run here from barrier 4. Has a good record at this track and distance, has a reasonable record on soft ground and gets in with 56kg for the apprentice who’s ridden him to his past two wins. He’s flying and looks a tremendous each way bet at $9. Happy to take on ZUMBELINA if the ground is wet. GRUNDERZEIT could be an improver.
TIP: My Country / Isorich EW
Race 9
I think there could be an absolute moral here with a couple of provisions. If runners are able to make ground from the back of the field, and if this horse behaves himself pre-race in the parade and behind the barriers, NEW UNIVERSE could blow these away. First up he was very poorly behaved and then they tried to resaddle him behind the barriers and he went bezerk. His effort to make as much ground as he did down the outside, from a near impossible winning position, was huge. He draws 11 here so will go back once again, but if he is better behaved before the race, he could be a moral at $2.90. HIGH MIST is well weighted and gets conditions to suit with the wet ground. He’s struck form and looks a live chance once again. CRAFTY COP another to consider. Backing both New Universe and High Mist.
TIP: New Universe (Best Bet)
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Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
