Sudden death finals football continues Saturday night, as the Sea Eagles head to Allianz Stadium to take on the Roosters. The winner will take on the Storm in Melbourne next week for the chance to make the Grand Final, whilst the loser begins planning their off-season trip. It should be a cracking game of football, so let’s dive in and analyse how we can make some money!
NRL Finals Week 2 Preview & Betting Tips
Sydney Roosters vs Manly Sea Eagles
Allianz Stadium, Saturday 21st September, 7:50pm (AEST)
Last Week
The Roosters took on the Panthers last weekend in the first Qualifying Final on Friday night, and after going into the matchup as 9.5-point underdogs, were blown off the park in the first 24 minutes, with the Panthers running in four unanswered tries to lead 22-0. The Roosters managed two quick tries in the second half, and at one point looked as though they may make a game of it, but you get the feeling the Panthers had put the cue in the rack and were managing the game after the first half an hour. There were some poor performances across the park from the Roosters, with halfback Sandon Smith missing a whopping 10 tackles in the game, whilst Angus Crichton appeared to be trying to win the game with every offload. Much improvement needed this weekend.
The Sea Eagles closed small 1.5-point road favourites on Sunday afternoon for the second Elimination Final against the Bulldogs, and for the most part looked set to be knocked out in one week. The Dogs lead 22-12 with 35 minutes remaining, and the parochial home crowd looked as though they were doing enough to get them home, but a stunning set play from a scrum saw Daly Cherry-Evans cross to close the gap to four points, before an even better try from Tolutau Koula in the 72nd minute gave Manly the lead, and ultimately, the win. Matthew Lodge was massive in the middle, running for 146 metres and busting 8 tackles, whilst Haumole Olakau’atu did his best to match Viliami Kikau, running for 133 metres, whilst busting 11 tackles and breaking the line once.
Match Preview
The Roosters and Sea Eagles have met a total of three times this year, if you consider their pre-season game, however given the Sea Eagles played basically a reserve grade team, we won’t pay any attention to the result. Both games in the regular season were competitive, with the Sea Eagles getting the win at 4 Pines Park in round 2, running out 21-14 winners after closing 1.5-point home underdogs. The Sea Eagles were rather dominant in the game, and thoroughly deserved the win, after the Roosters made 20 errors and conceded 9 penalties. The Roosters got revenge in round 21 at Allianz Stadium, sneaking home 34-30 after closing 8.5-point home favourites. The Roosters led 34-18 with 7 minutes remaining, before conceding two late converted tries to make this closer than it needed to be. The results showed these teams are closely matched, and this semi-final should be a cracker.
Fast forward to this week, and the Roosters opened up 3.5-point home favourites for the second semi-final. This is a huge change from the closing number in round 21, less than two months ago. The obvious change is the fact the Roosters are without Sam Walker; however, I’d suggest Tom Trbojevic isn’t at the peak of his powers either, and both teams should be downgraded from their round 21 clash. I make the Roosters about a 6-point favourite, so I saw decent value early in the week for the Roosters, who have now moved to 4.5-point favourites. This makes it slightly tougher, given the key number of 4 has been crossed.
As for the total, it opened 46.5 and has remained there throughout the week. I would have liked the over in this game if both teams were fit, but with the Roosters halfback out, and the Sea Eagles superstar fullback severely limited, I’m a little scared off the total.
Whilst I think the Sea Eagles have done well this season, I believe their 2024 ends this weekend. The Roosters played on Friday night in a game that, whilst punishing enough, wasn’t particularly hard fought for 80 minutes. The Sea Eagles, by contrast, played on Sunday afternoon and were in an absolute war with the Bulldogs for 80 minutes. Ultimately, I believe the Roosters will be the fresher team, have the home crowd behind them, and should get the job done comfortably in the end.
Roosters -4.5
$1.91 (2.5 Units)
Same Game Multi
Roosters ML – As above.
D Young (1+ try) – The Sea Eagles’ left edge has struggled all year defensively, and I expect Young to bounce back after a poor game last week against the Panthers.
T Talau (1+ try) – Talau has flown under the radar this season, scoring 17 tries in 22 games. Scored a try in both games against the Roosters this year and is a great shout to cross again on Saturday evening.
SGM Odds: $5.51 at Ladbrokes
