Richmond simply have to keep winning if they have any chance of qualifying for the 2023 AFL Finals Series, and this Sunday they will face a tough challenge in Melbourne. The Demons sit in the top four and have knocked off two quality opponents in the last fortnight, so it will be fascinating to see if the Tigers turn up for the fight at the MCG.
We bring you our preview, best bet and value Same Game Multi below for the Tigers vs Demons clash below!
AFL Round 20 Preview & Betting Tips
Richmond vs Melbourne
Sunday 3:20pm AEST, July 30th, MCG
Despite enjoying an easy run of games, Richmond have won four of their last five games and now sit on the verge of jumping into the top eight. The Tigers have beaten Hawthorn, West Coast, Sydney and St Kilda in that stretch, winning three of those games by 20 points or less. Despite missing key position stars Tom Lynch and Toby Nankervis, the Richmond system has still functioned relatively well, and the midfield mix is finally operating at full strength with Jacob Hopper back in the fold. It’s no surprise that Richmond’s run has coincided with a return to form for Dustin Martin, who has hit 20+ disposals in each of his last five outings. While the men in yellow and black are a genuine chance to play in September now, some tough fixtures at bogey venue Marvel Stadium await, so this game has massive implications for Richmond’s chances.
Melbourne have also found their groove over the last few weeks, winning three on the trot to cement their place in the top four. The Demons have knocked off Adelaide, Brisbane and St Kilda, three genuine finals fancies, so they will be confident heading into a soft run of fixtures before the finals roll around. Simon Goodwin has definitely had a massive impact on Melbourne’s return to form, improving his side’s output by moving Christian Petracca to a half-forward role and allowing Max Gawn to play as the sole ruckman. Both those leaders have been in scintillating touch on the field, and you can only see the Demons improving when Clayton Oliver and Bailey Fritsch return heading into September. Harrison Petty and James Harmes find themselves back in the side for Sunday’s match, with Tom Sparrow missing due to a calf complaint and Ben Brown omitted. As expected, there is still no room for Brodie Grundy, who will have to kick the door down in the VFL to regain his place.
Melbourne have had the wood over Richmond in recent years, winning the last three matches between the two teams by 18 points or more. The Tigers have been playing some decent football recently, but they are still carrying a lot of youngsters who may struggle to have an impact against the seasoned Demons line-up. For this reason, I am backing the Dees to win a tight contest at the ‘G.
Melbourne 1-39
$2.20 (3 Units)
Same Game Multi
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Melbourne H2H – As stated above, the Demons should have too much class in this one.
Christian Petracca 2+ Goals – Since spending more time forward, Trac has averaged four shots on goal per game. In two of those games he managed to kick four goals, so it’s not a stretch to suggest he will kick multiple goals on Sunday.
Harrison Petty 1+ Goal – Petty is back into the side, and I believe he will play as a forward, given Brown has been omitted. If that is the case, then big Harry is great value to kick a goal, and we saw what he can do down forward in last year’s final against Brisbane.
SGM Odds: $4.50 at BoomBet
