Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for racing at Royal Randwick on Saturday, October 6th!
We have nine races on a very wet track, expected to be well into the Heavy range, with the rail in the 6m position. The Group 1 Spring Champion Stakes is the highlight of the card.
We’ve covered every race on the card below!
Best Bet: Race 8 #5 I Am Serious
Best Value: Race 5 #2 Abdon / #5 Instant De Reve
Keen to follow my money on #1 Royal Celebration here, who was desperately unlucky not to win first up after sitting wide without cover the entire race. He was only run down very late by Gem Song on that occasion and so long as he handles the wet ground, he looks hard to beat. #3 Yulong January has opened his career with two dominant wins at Swan Hill. Jumps straight from there to a Saturday metro race in Sydney which looks suspect. #5 Tough Larry comes off a debut win on the Kensington track and follows the usual Waller path of having a break between runs with a trial in between. #2 Silent Explorer has some wet track form to his name and could be value at double figure odds.
TIP: #1 Royal Celebration $3.10 unibet
Super competitive Highway with a stack of chances. Interested in #8 Rapture Miss who won impressively three starts back before running soundly in another Highway race, and then should have absolutely bolted in last start when dead heating at Moruya. Gets Regan Bayliss aboard today and has some sort of wet form so at $8.00 looks a reasonable bet. #6 Justice Honour gets a big jockey change with Jason Collett taking over. This horse had Katelyn Jenkinson riding it for the first three starts this campaign and then had Jay Ford aboard when beaten a length defeated in a Highway last start. Not an ideal barrier draw, although with the condition the track is expected to be in, it might just find the best ground. #4 Ribs is another at double figure odds that is a decent chance. Has good wet track form and gets a positive jockey change today. #1 Saxon Rock should measure up off his two runs in Queensland to start off his prep.
TIP: #8 Rapture Miss EW $8.00 sportsbet
Pretty keen on the chances of #3 Tamarack each way here. He’s placed in his past three starts which have been in decent form races and he handles the wet conditions, so with the good draw he looks certain to run a good race once again. $6.50/$2.40 looks a good 1x3 play. #5 Excelsior is racing well with two wins and a minor placing from its past three starts. Finished alongside Tamarack on the heavy ground two starts ago and they meet at basically the same weights so must be included in the numbers again. #10 Keep Up finished 2nd to the smart High Bridge last start and gets blinkers on for the first time today. Didn’t perform well on wet ground two starts ago but has won on heavy ground previously so the gear change could do the trick. #9 Is Don Is Good and #14 Gentleman Mac are both swimmers.
TIP: #3 Tamarack EW $6.50 sportsbet
Hate this race. Nothing at all stands out but I’m left with the favourite #3 Just Dreaming on top. I wasn’t keen on this horse because of its poor first up record but if you actually look back through its form, two of those first up runs were slaughter jobs where it was caught wide without cover the whole race. Jason Collett booked to ride first up is a good indication it can win this, especially as Collett jumps off #7 Insensata. Insensata actually looks a live chance with the drop back in grade and the fact it’s rock-hard fit on what’s set to be a very testing track. Has a good record in the wet, too, but Kathy O’Hara taking over from Collett is a negative jockey booking. #6 Super Tycoon has some great stats for this race. He’s undefeated from five starts at the distance and is much better on the wet ground than he is on the dry ground. He’s had plenty of issues though and is seven weeks between runs.
TIP: #3 Just Dreaming $4.40 pointsbet
Wide open race. #2 Abdon was good first up but failed last start. If you look at his second up record, he always fails. His third up record, however, is quite good, and he has some wet track form to go with it. Draws much more positively than he did last start so third up today, he can bounce back at double figure odds. #5 Instant De Reve is fourth up now and also has some solid wet track form. Drawn wide but that may be the place to be in the straight. Gets a little gear change with the nose roll going on and looks to find a race that suits. #9 Zourkhan won easily last start on the heavy ground and finds identical conditions today. His wet track form overall is quite strong and JMac takes over today. No surprise to see him back it up and win again. #11 Fierce Impact ran enormous first up but the jockey booking just doesn’t do it for me. #13 Data Point is a non-winner but does love the wet. Happy to have something on three of Wallers runners here – Zourkhan, Abdon and Instant De Reve.
TIP: #9 Zourkhan $5.50 sportsbet / #5 Instant De Reve $11 sportsbet / #2 Abdon $14 sportsbet
Another very tricky race. #2 Aylmerton returns to Sydney after a first up run in Melbourne for the new stable. Blinkers go on for the first time and his breeding suggests he will love the wet so at $9.00 he might be worth having something on. #3 Jonker finished alongside Graff last start and Graff then ran 2nd in the Golden Rose and is now locked in for the Everest. That seems a decent form line for a weaker race like this. #9 Sesar looks to have been set to win this first up. He gets the blinkers on for the first time first up here and gets Jason Collett booked for the ride. He was only 2L off The Autumn Sun last time we saw him and he is the runner in the field that we haven’t seen yet this prep. At $8.50 he’s another I could entertain having something on. #1 Sandbar next.
TIP: #2 Aylmerton $9.00 ladbrokes
Another race I’m not overly keen to bet into and it’s the feature of the day, the Group 1 Spring Champion Stakes. #1 Thinkin’ Big goes on top after an easy win in the G2 Gloaming Stakes over 1800m last start, where he was fresh off an eight-week break. Even though he had two trials leading into that, he should still show some improvement for today and he should go to the front and be tough to run down. He’s also got a heavy track win to his name. #2 Tarka ran 2nd to him last start and gets the blinkers on for the first time in an attempt to turn the tables. #5 Dealmaker is the Waller runner and he comes into this after four weeks off, with a quiet trial in between runs. Straight up to 2000m from 1500m which is a slight query. #6 Micky Blue Eyes followed a maiden win at Bendigo with a win in the Dulcify Quality over 1600m last start. The run of that race was probably #10 Purple Sector, though, who had no luck and hit the line hard late. #11 Maid Of Heaven comes through the G1 Flight Stakes behind Oohood, where she was beaten 1.2L and was never totally clear in the straight. On that run you’d have to rate her a chance in this but Rachel King on board for a G1 is always a little risk.
TIP: #1 Thinkin’ Big $3.40 sportsbet
Pretty keen on #5 I Am Serious here. She’s been running terrific races behind the likes of Avilius and Brimham Rocks and drops back from 2000m to 1600m for this race, which could be a bonus given the likely testing conditions. Her form on wet ground is outstanding, she gets James McDonald aboard and her only start at this track and distance was on wet ground, which was a win. Looks to get her chance to win a blacktype race today. #1 Dixie Blossoms is a multiple Group 2 winner and her form at Randwick is terrific. Completely forget her form at Rosehill, where she just isn’t as effective. Has good wet track form and draws perfectly in barrier 4. Definite chance. #2 Shumookh won the G2 Golden Pendant last start but there must be a big query over her ability to run a strong 1600m. The value looks to be #4 The Pinnacle who has a good record at the track and distance and a good record when third up from a spell. $21 looks over the odds.
TIP: #5 I Am Serious $3.10 pointsbet
Much like the rest of the card, a tricky race to conclude here with no real standouts. #7 Dawn Dawn I a horse I had some nice results on last campaign and she resumes here with a nice trial under the belt. Last time we saw her she won by 2L at Rosehill in similar company to this, so provided she handles the wet ground, she should go close. Some concern over her being first up on a testing track. #5 Warranty resumed with a sound effort behind Trekking, who then went to Melbourne and won again, so that form looks good. Barrier 17 isn’t ideal but she gets JMac booked for the ride today and Snowden horses always tend to improve second up. #4 Za Zi Ba and #6 Metamorphic are racing consistently and will be thereabouts again.
TIP: #7 Dawn Dawn $5.50 beteasy
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