Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for Chipping Norton Stakes Day at Randwick on Saturday, March 3rd.
We have a nine-race card on a Soft 5 track with the rail out 3m. The meeting is headlined by the Group 1 Chipping Norton Stakes, featuring the return of Winx, and the Group 1 Surround Stakes.
We have betting tips and comments for every race on the card below. If you haven’t already, take a listen to Episode 24 of the Before You Bet Podcast and see which races at Flemington and Randwick Tim is keenest to bet into! Alternatively, you can find out Flemington Racing Tips here.
RANDWICK RACING TIPS
Best Bet: Race 9 #3 Osbourne Bulls
Best Value: Race 8 #8 Francaletta
RACE 1
Highway Handicap to start things off and it looks a very tough betting race and hardly one to get excited about. Ended up with (1) Keymaster on top purely based on the fact he brings wet track form to the race, unlike most others. He comes off a 6L win on a soft track at Bathurst over 1400m. The step up to the mile should be no problem and although Bathurst form is rarely good enough even for Highway Handicaps, the fact he won so dominantly on soft ground last start gives him a big tick in my books. (2) Volpe is third up from a short break and up to the mile with Bowman on. (3) It’s A Lottery has been running in some better races than this and should measure up once again. (6) Fui San was well backed to beat Mate Story last start but only managed 2nd, and failed two starts ago on soft ground at Rosehill. (12) So It Is was also well backed to beat Mate Story last start but was only plain in 4th. Doesn’t have a good record on soft ground and is now a winner of just one from 11 overall. (9) Sepoy’s Choice could be the value.
TIP: (1) Keymaster
RACE 2
Siding with last-start winner (10) Just Shine here who comes off a 1900m victory at Canterbury on soft ground. Although I normally query Canterbury form when going to Randwick, this horse won very nicely and has scope to go on with it at just his fourth start of the preparation. He’s on top at $4.60 ahead of (7) Xebec, who I completely sacked after last start but he gets the blinkers on for the first time here and drops back to 2000m from 2400m, so that just might be the formula he needs to win. He is turning into a bit of a cat though, so if it’s not today it may be never. (12) Tamarack is another last-start Canterbury winner over 1900m and can measure up, while (3) Almost Court performed well at this track and distance last start and should be there for a long way.
TIP: (10) Just Shine
RACE 3
Only two I’m really interested in here and this race could have a big impact on the Golden Slipper. (2) Santos looks a legitimate Slipper chance based on his first up win in the Pierro Plate over 1100m at this track, where he powered away to win by 2.5L. He’s high up in Slipper betting and if he’s going to be a chance in that he’d need to win this, which I think he will. (5) Spin looks the logical danger and has trialled well coming into his first up run here.
TIP: (2) Santos
RACE 4
Three main chances I’ll be working around here. (2) Fiesta goes on top after a first up win in Group 3 company on soft ground. Kerrin McEvoy keeps the ride, and he’ll need to produce a good one from barrier 8. $5 seems a reasonable price. (3) Satin Slipper was good first up without winning, though Blake Shinn didn’t whip her once. She beat Fiesta on debut and draws well here, so if she’s improved at all from her first up run she’ll be right in the finish. (9) Couvre Lit was a good winner on debut at Warwick Farm. This is a big step up in class but she draws well and the stable is firing. (7) Seabrook comes up from Melbourne where she was unlucky in the Blue Diamond Prelude but that form typically doesn’t stand up in Sydney.
TIP: (2) Fiesta / (9) Couvre Lit EW
RACE 5
(3) Care To Think is a potential Group 1 horse but this is the toughest test he’s faced to date and he won’t get it easy here. He’s won all three starts in Brisbane this preparation in convincing fashion, with a dominant win in the Magic Millions Cup last start despite sitting three-wide the trip. He draws barrier 12 here so he’s either going to have to sit wide again or go back to last and try to run them down. He’s short enough at the price. I’m interested in (7) Interlocuter who resumes from a short break here. He’s going to have to come from the back of the field too but he’s a horse I’ve got a lot of time for and James Cummings gave him a good push a couple of weeks ago. He basically won four of his five starts last preparation (lost one on protest) and looks right in this at $8.50. (4) Mackintosh trialled well behind Winx and resumes here with the blinkers back on. He can run well fresh. (6) Egg Tart didn’t have things go her way last preparation but she’s trialled nicely coming into her first up run here. She’s undefeated on wet ground and draws well for Kerrin McEvoy. Whether the 1300m is a touch short remains to be seen, but she could be value at double figure odds. They were talking as if she was the next Winx not long ago.
TIP: (7) Interlocuter EW / (6) Egg Tart EW
RACE 6
Not much to say here. Very poor WFA Group 1 race but Winx is the reason for that. She’ll win and Prized Icon should run 2nd.
TIP: (7) Winx
RACE 7
Interesting little race, this. They’re laying (2) Alizee for all she’s worth early in betting here. She’s $2.05-$2.75 with support for a number of other runners. I’m ignoring that and will be backing her here, stepping up to 1400m second up after a sound first up win over the shorter distance. This type of distance is when she should really start to come into her own. If the market continues to take her on it could indicate she’s flat second up, but if she is anywhere close to her best then she’ll win this. (6) Shumookh was the one she had to run down last start and will once again be the one she has to run down today. From barrier 1, Shumookh will be a long way ahead of Alizee in the run, with the Godolphin filly drawing barrier 10. (8) Unforgotten is the value in the race and has been $11 into $7 since I published the podcast last night. She’s the one I’ll be having something on at longer odds after winning three from three last preparation. She could be very good. (3) Melody Belle is sure to have been aimed at this and goes from Rory Hutchings to Hugh Bowman so can’t be discounted.
TIP: (2) Alizee / (8) Unforgotten EW
RACE 8
Very, very keen on (8) Francaletta here and I’ve already had a big each way bet at the $8.50 that was on offer. She’s into $6 now but I still think that’s a reasonable price to back her each way. She’s a Group 3 winner over in New Zealand and makes the trip across for today’s race. She’s first up from a spell and has won both her previous first up runs, and her record on soft ground is seven starts for five wins! Love the booking of Kerrin McEvoy and think she will be going very close. (2) Aide Memoire looks the value in the race at $23. Forget she went around first up – she was vetted at the barriers and then ran last. She ran 2nd to Francaletta last preparation and has a good record second up, a good record at the distance and a good record on soft ground. (4) Dixie Blossoms looks the biggest danger to both of them and deserves favouritism.
TIP: (8) Francaletta / (2) Aide Memoire EW
RACE 9
Three main chances I like here. I think (3) Osbourne Bulls is the best bet of the day. He was due to run first up two weeks ago but was scratched in the barriers. That was the same day Alizee won first up and James Cummings had said his best chance was Osbourne Bulls that day. So if he’s taken no harm from that incident then he should be very hard to beat again today. He’s won four of his five starts to date and draws nicely here. (7) Mana could be the value at double figure odds. He never saw daylight last start and if you look at his record, he rarely does much in his first two starts back from a spell. But his third up record is four starts for two wins and two 2nds so he looks set to peak today. He won his only previous start at this track and distance. (8) Generalissimo didn’t have any luck first up and can go close.
TIP: (3) Osbourne Bulls / (7) Mana EW
QUADDIE
7
2, 3, 6, 8
2, 4, 8
3, 7, 8
$100 = 277.77%
