Randwick Racing Tips for Saturday, August 5th

Randwick hosts a nine-race card this weekend on what is sure to be an absolute bog track. Sydney has received quite a bit of rain in the lead up to Saturday's card and we all know just how poor the drainage is at Randwick so don't expect to see it move from the Heavy range. We have betting tips and comments for every race below.

Randwick Racing Tips for Saturday, 5th of August

Race 1

Good race to start off here and I'm keen to be on BRAVE SONG here who is bred to absolutely love these conditions. He finished runner up to a smart one in Calculated on debut and then bolted in last start at Canterbury. I think he's a pretty smart horse and the Heavy track really should pose no problems. I'll be on him at $3.70. ADDICTIVE NATURE has had a decent spruik about him for a while now and he won on debut as his trials suggested he might. Draws barrier 1 here which should only help him and he did win a trial on a Soft 7 so the wet ground may not be an issue. Should go close. REGIMEN and WILD HEART have claims, but the value could be THE MIGHTY FED at $17 given he won two races on Heavy ground in his debut campaign.

TIP: Brave Song

Race 2

Pretty happy with the $5.50 about DIAPASON here who is a horse I really quite like. She should have won two starts ago over this distance and she comes through a relatively good race in Melbourne last start. I expect Dulverton, who beat her last start, to win again in Melbourne today so the form should stack up. Carries more weight here but gets Kerrin McEvoy on and I do have some queries about the top two in the market, La Chica Bella and Long Time Ago. Bred to handle the Heavy track and has placed twice on Soft ground anyway, so the $5.50 is quite appealing I think. With 9 runners engaged I think the $1.90 on offer for the place allows us to have a decent crack at an each way bet. LONG TIME AGO comes out of a strong form race so she could be hardest to beat.

TIP: Diapason

Race 3

Tough race. Leaning towards FRANCESO here who should be right at his peak now at his fourth run back this prep. He comes out of a couple of strong form races behind the likes of Nat King Cu and Pelethronius, and he's won two of his four races on Heavy ground. Strikes a winnable race here and at $6.50 looks a decent price. The value could be HE'S A GIVEN. Normally I wouldn't be keen on him given he's only placed once from four starts when second up from a spell and placed only once from six starts at the track, but he's won three of his four races on Heavy ground and ran 2nd at the other. Draws to get a nice run and the Heavy ground may be the thing that allows him to defy his poor record here. I'm prepared to back him and find out at $11. KING DARCI gets up to his pet distance and third up from a spell really should get every chance. IMPERATOR AUGUSTUS is up in grade but should get a gun run from barrier 1 and does come off a win on Heavy ground. 

TIP: Francesco / He's A Given EW

Race 4

If this were on Good ground it might be a case of putting the house on CARE TO THINK but a Heavy 8 at Randwick is a bit different to the Soft 5's he's previously raced on, so I remain unconvinced about his ability on Heavy ground. Therefore, I can't jump into the $2.70 on offer. I think he's the best horse in the race but I'll let him win without my money here. SUPER STAR BOB is another that is untested on the ground but his breeding suggests he should relish it. He's bred by Mossman who are generally swimmers. He comes out of a strong race behind Agent D'Or and Spending To Win and Berry is a strong booking. I'll be playing around the top two here and looking for a bit of value. The first i'll be backing is GITAN who comes out of a very strong form race behind Awoke and The Pharaoh. Since that race both Awoke and The Pharaoh have come out and run 2nd in strong races, so the form can be followed. Has won before on a Heavy track and at $6 I'll have a nibble. The second is MAFKI LASS who comes up $7. She was a recent winner at Scone and that was on Soft ground. Both her wins have come on Soft ground so there's no indication that she won't handle the heavy. There's already been money for her, and with just 51.5kg on her back she gets in very well. 

TIP: Gitan / Mafki Lass EW

Race 5

Best bet of the day here for me with SAYED. Has been in fantastic form of late, with a close up second in Melbourne two starts ago followed by a win at Warwick Farm last start. Has won twice on Soft ground and won his only start on Heavy, so the ground is no concern at all. McEvoy takes over from Bowman, just needs a touch of luck from the inside and needs to overcome the rise in weight but I don't see why he can't. $2.90 looks a nice price to me. Keep  GLOBAL GENTL safe. He was a surprise winner last start in Melbourne when stepped up from 1600m to 2100m. Should continue to improve with the rise in distance and has won two races on Soft ground. Draws poorly. ASHLEE MARIE brings some reasonable form to the race and despite being significantly beaten by Sayed two starts ago, her best racing is done on Soft ground. She's untested on Heavy but with one win from 20 starts on Good ground, and four wins from seven starts on Soft ground, it's fair to assume that Heavy ground will bring out the best in her. Happy to have an each way ticket on her but she needs to prove herself at the distance.

TIP: Sayed (Best Bet) / Ashlee Marie EW

Race 6

On first look, I'm taking on STEYNE here. This is a horse I've got a bit of time for, but the Snowdens booking the apprentice Adkins despite the horse only having 53kg raises alarm bells for me. Kerrin McEvoy rode him last start and I'm pretty confident Kerrin can ride at 53kg, so him jumping off him here suggests to me he's not a winning chance. Could be wrong, but he'll be going around without my money. I'll be with INVINCIBLE KNIGHT who loves the wet ground and his form this prep has been fantastic. He was luckless first up when 4th, then won on Heavy ground at his next start (subsequent winner Pick Me Up was 2nd), then ran 4th in Listed grade, and last start ran 2nd to a handy horse in Pelethronius. He's won his only start on Heavy ground, gets back up to 1600m which is a distance he's won three times at, and gets in with a lighter weight of 58kg today. Has everything in his favour here and $3.50 is a reasonable price. SO WILLIE gets an all important drop in distance to 1600m today which is where he's best at. Goes well on Heavy ground and he rates a good chance today at $7.50. The value could be DUBAIINSTYLE which is the horse McEvoy takes the ride on. Has never won from eight starts on Good ground, and all his best form has been on wet ground, so just ignore his first two runs this prep. He was luckless last start and pulled up lame as well, so there were plenty of reasons to forgive him. Gets conditions to suit today, gets a positive jockey change, low weight, and at $7 he is the clear value.

TIP: Invincible Knight / Dubaiinstyle EW

Race 7

Difficult little race to assess, but one thing that appears to be certain is there is going to be plenty of pace on. Jungle Edge, The Monstar, That's A Good Idea, Memes, Tycoon Tara and even one or two more could go forward. So that's the majority of the field, which leaves the race perfectly set up for the best horse in the race LE ROMAIN. He goes on top, even though I think he's very much as low as I'd want him to be at $2.20. I think he is a level above all these others as a genuine WFA Group 1 horse, and his record both at the track and distance, and on wet ground, suggests he'll be mighty tough to beat here. The value could be INVINCIBLE GEM who we haven't quite got to the bottom of yet, I don't think. She flew through the grades last prep, becoming a dominant Group 3 winner over a mile before running 2nd to Inference in a Group 1 at the same trip. She my be better suited over longer than this, and we're yet to know how she has come back, but it might be worth having a penny on her at $9. JUNGLE EDGE will do what he always does and lead. He'll be tough to run down if he does get things his own way, while THE MONSTAR is flying and shouldn't be underestimated. TYCOON TARA may not be fully wound up for this so I'd be surprised to see her win. her best form is when she can lead and run them into the ground, but I doubt she'll get that here today.

TIP: Le Romain

Race 8

Competitive race. Siding narrowly with TANGO RAIN here who returns from a lengthy spell after an impressive debut campaign which saw him run 2nd to Star Turn. He's had a long time off but has trialled three times leading into this, winning the latest, and he's already won on Heavy ground previously which is something that can't be said for market rival LAUNCH CODE. Launch Code has been impressive in winning two of his last three starts since becoming a gelding. Up in class here but was dominant last start and has always shown the potential to go to better races. Draws well here and the only query will be the wet track. CUDABEEN will be in the mix after two wins and a 2nd from three starts this prep. Carries the bottom weight and can figure in the finish. I can't quite work out why SALERNO is one of the outsiders of the field. He's won his past two starts, the latest of which was over Cudabeen, only carries half-a-kilo more today, has won three from four at the track and distance, and won on Heavy ground two starts ago. The draw is slightly awkward but this horse is flying and shouldn't be $18.

TIP: Tango Rain / Salerno EW (Best Value)

Race 9

Nightmare of a way to end the day with any number of winning hopes here. I can make a genuine case for about seven horses. CLIPPER goes on top despite the wide gate. Should be able to slide across from out wide and last start proved to me that he's up to this level. Undefeated on wet ground, never missed a place at the track and gets in light after the claim. LAST WITNESS was our value play last start when he went down by a nose at $18 and I think the $19 today is just as much value. He has a great record at the distance, is peaking now at his fourth run back, carries the same weight as last start, draws well and has a good record on wet ground. KINGS OF LEON, MANA, STAR CROSSED, SPENDING TO WIN, AGENT D'OR all chances. 

TIP: Clipper / Last Witness EW

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