Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for racing at Randwick on Saturday, August 24th.
Group 1 racing is back with the Winx Stakes headlining today's nine-race card! The track is rated a Good 4 with the rail in the 4m position.
Randwick Racing Tips: Saturday, August 24th
Best Bet: Race 3 - (3) True Detective
Best Value Bet: Race 8 - (3) Dyslexic
This is a wide-open Highway Handicap to open the card and I'll probably be sitting out. There are two horses that do appeal more than the rest though, and that's (6) Galaxy Force and (8) Lady Demi. Galaxy Force won first up on heavy ground at Wagga despite being trapped four-wide without cover and then went to Melbourne last start to contest what looks to be a fairly strong midweek metro race. Returns to Sydney now for a Class 2 highway and I suspect he'll improve with the return to firm ground. Lady Demi has run 2nd in her past two starts, which have both been in Highways at this track. She drops back to 1100m after contesting a 1200m event last start and the little query will be her return to good ground, given both her last two runs were on soft ground. I don't think she's an $8.50 chance here though. Highway form is often best for Highway races and she's run 2nd in her past two, the latest of which was a nose margin. She looks a terrific each way bet in the race for mine.
Another really open race. (5) Missybeel has been racing really well without any luck recently. She's run 2nd in two of her past four starts and the other two she's had no luck at all. Last start she was held up the whole straight behind Hogmanay, who then came out and won the Taree Cup. Tim Clark replaces Jenny Duggan and draws well in barrier 6; he shouldn't get held up from there. (6) Plaisir could be a blowout chance in the race at 50/1. He's finished top two in all four starts when second up from a spell. (7) Adana carries 53.5kg and draws the inside but he won't want a repeat of the ride he got last start, when he never saw daylight. His formlines stack up big time from last prep but he's a winner of just one race from 14 starts so I'll let him go around again. (1) Valentino Rossa has a terrific second up record with four wins from six starts but he's never placed from six starts at the track. Not discounting him but prefer others.
Great little race. Going to stick with (3) True Detective who started the well-backed $1.60 favourite last start but just had too much to do. Prior to that he was beaten a nose by Spend, who looks a very promising horse. Will give him another chance today stepping up in trip slightly to 1300m. Stablemate (2) Lucicello was enormous in defeat last start, running home strongly from the back of the field to be beaten 0.4L by Dawn Passage. She was given plenty to do in the home straight and her run was terrific all things considered. (4) Mandela gets the blinkers on for the first time and he's not short of talent, while I wouldn't be dismissing (9) Famous.
(5) Our Candidate was super impressive in winning last time out over 2400m at Rosehill, defeating subsequent winner Ilwendo by 4.3L. He did get absolutely everything go his way on that occasion but he still looks the one to beat here, even though the stable think $2.00 is well short of what he should be in the market. (2) Scholarly showed good improvement last start when second up from a long spell and back on a good track. He should continue to improve today third up and up to 2400m. (8) Gayatri looks the value at $10. He had no luck last start behind Hogmanay, who then won the Taree Cup, and his only run at this track and distance was a 2nd placing. He's ready to do something. (1) Attention Run next best.
Looks a nice race for the favourite (3) Libertini who has looked absolutely enormous in her recent trials. She then had a track gallop where she gave stablemate and Group 1 winner Prince Fawaz a cold as she breezed past him. She should be winning this. With that said, the Godolphin team came out firing in Sydney last weekend, and their horses returning from spells look to be going particularly well. I'm really excited to see (2) Flit in particular as she's a filly I think has a big future, but the same can be said about (1) Tenley. If Libertini is below her best, one of the Godolphin fillies is likely to be winning. Exciting race!
(7) Deprive is a winner of six of his nine starts and his two wins last prep were very impressive. He steps up in grade today but he looks capable of handling that. James Cummings gave him a fairly big wrap and so long as he gets the luck he needs from barrier 1, I suspect he'll give this a big shake as the market suggests. His stablemate (6) Cascadian is an interesting runner, making his Australian debut having been Group 1-placed in France. He's only had one public trial here in Australia but Cummings has a knack of getting these horses ready for their first run here (see Avilius). I'm prepared to take him on here though. (12) Trope is a horse with a big future. I'm really excited to see him back and the stable have a huge opinion of him. He could be a star and it'd be no surprise to see him win this fresh.
Race 7 - Group 1 Winx Stakes (Market)
I've done this race over a number of times and still am unsure of how it will play out. We've got a seriously talented group of horses but very few of them will be best suited at 1400m, let alone first up from a spell. It wouldn't shock me to see an upset here but I'm going to side with the best horses in the race. (1) Avilius has never raced over this distance previously, however the stable did produce him to win first up over 1600m last prep. He's got a good first up record and is undefeated at the track so he'll run a bold race in any case. (10) Verry Elleegant does have a decent record at 1400m, including a 2nd placing to Amphitrite first up in Melbourne last prep. She might go better on wet ground but she proved in the Oaks at the end of last prep that she's more than capable on firm ground. (2) Happy Clapper might be best suited at 1400m out of the favoured runners and he doesn't have Winx to bump into this prep. He's got a good fresh record and he resumes with the blinkers on today so they'll have him very forward to win this. He also loves Randwick. He's now a 9YO which is my main concern, he might just find the younger horses a bit sharper than him. (7) Invincible Gem gave Alizee a little scare last start and that's not form to underestimate. She's also got the race fitness under the belt which should give her a little advantage over the others. I think she's the best value at $14. Interested to see both (4) Best Of Days and (5) Kings Will Dream, who both return after enforced layoffs. Best Of Days is fresh up from a bleed, while Kings Will Dream has his first run since fracturing his pelvis in last year's Cox Plate.
Value: (7) Invincible Gem $14
(10) Verry Elleegant
$4.00
Playing outside the favourites here with a couple at each way odds. (3) Dyslexic resumed at 1400m last preparation but it's notable that they bring her here first up at 1100m today. She's won her only start at the distance previously and the other thing of note is James McDonald booked to ride for Team Hawkes. $12 looks an appealing price - she'll be closing off hard from the back of the field. (13) Agent Pippa went down as the $1.50 favourite at Coffs last start but her first up victory was terrific. Back up to 1100m suits her much better here but the query is whether she's able to lead this field with the likes of Alassio and Kiamichi involved. (2) Kiamichi is the Golden Slipper winner and she tackles 1100m for the first time in her career. If she goes anything like the Godolphin horses did fresh last weekend then she'll probably win. She's trialled well leading into this.
Two I'm keen to back here. (7) Prime Candidate goes on top. He's won five of his seven career starts including a win over 1200m at Rosehill last start. Third up and up to 1400m are both positives as he had 61 weeks off leading into this prep. Tim Clark retains the ride and this is a winnable race for a horse that looks capable of measuring up in better races. (8) The Avenger won over 1500m last start. He drops back to 1400m today but he drops in the weights and James McDonald keeps the ride after piloting him to victory last time. I think he's the value at $11. (11) Roheryn got the job done as the $1.40 favourite but that's about all he did. I didn't think the win was overly dynamic, nor did it stamp him as a horse to watch out for in the Spring. I'm going to take him on today.
Value: (8) The Avenger $11
