Winx is the headline on a huge 10 race card, and we have comments and betting tips for every race below.
Race 1
Happy to stick with LIAPARI who has struck a rich vein of form since being kept to 1600m races. Probably should have won his last three races and drops down to 53kg here with the rise in grade. Looks hard to beat again. The biggest danger could be ASTRONOMOS who is first up for the new stable and has a terrific record over both the track and the distance. Ran 2nd first up last prep and if he's tuned up he should be in the finish. INVINZABEEL should be ready to find form now.
Tip: Liapari
Race 2
Competitive Highway Handicap here with several winning chances. MAESTRO TOM has struck form and ran 2nd at Rosehill over 1500m last start. There is a query over his ability stepping up to 1800m but he gets in with the same weight here so should be competitive. HALBERD has placed in six of his last seven races and has no problems with the distance. MEDIEVAL won at Doomben last start and comes from a stable who certainly knows how to win these Highway Handicaps, while the value could be D'BEAK who gets in with just 51kg after the claim and has placed in her last 5 straight races. I'll stick with MEDIEVAL here but not with much confidence, and will be having an each way play on D'BEAK.
Tip: Medieval / D'beak EW
Race 3
Pretty happy to back ADMIRAL JELLO here who bolted in over track and distance last start to win by nearly 3 lengths. He did a similar thing three starts ago at Canterbury before just missing out two starts ago. He's racing in great form and I don't see any reason to suggest he won't be fighting out the finish again here. Look for sharp improvement from Waller's European import REGAL MONARCH. He hasn't been competitive at all in his first two Australian starts but he steps up quickly to 2400m which is a distance he's never finished outside the top 2 at from five attempts. He should be approaching a decent level of fitness now at his third run back and if he found form he'd be hard to beat.
Tip: Admiral Jello (Best Bet) / Regal Monarch EW
Race 4
Doesn't look a particularly strong form race on paper but the Group 3 placing on debut for SWEET DEAL looks the best formline to follow. Teaspoon is undefeated and does look a handy 2YO and Sweet Deal had no luck having been caught wide the entire race when 3rd, beaten 0.7L on the day. She draws wide again here so we might see her ridden a touch more conservatively but if she reproduces her debut run she should be hard to beat. ULTRAMARINE looks the biggest danger after trialling in good fashion before striking a relatively strong race on debut. The value could be debut Canberra winner FIRE STOKER who ran relatively good time on a Soft track.
Tip: Sweet Deal
Race 5
If IMPENDING is tuned up and ready to go today then he really should be just winning here, but I just wonder how forward he is. First up last prep he ran 3rd behind Astern and Star Turn over this distance and really should have finished closer after striking trouble in the straight. The difference between now and then is he had two trials leading into that run, and finished 2nd and 1st in those, while he's just had the one trial leading into today where he finished 9th of 10. That's not the be all and end all but it will be interesting to keep an eye on the market. He currently sits at $2.30 but I'd think if he got out to $2.60+ it may be an indication that he needs the run. If that's the case DOTHRAKI may be the one worth backing. He finished a length behind TARGET IN SIGHT at the Gold Coast Magic Millions first up, and his second up record suggests he should improve today. LE ROMAIN will run well and did run 2nd behind Tycoon Tara first up over this distance last prep but the 61kg here (3kg more than any other runner) might be enough to stop him winning.
Tip: Dothraki
Race 6
GAUGUIN may have only won a midweek maiden last start but he's being set for the Rosehill Guineas and the BMW and that tells you he should be up to winning a race like this. Importantly, he maps to get an easy enough run from barrier 5 and I don't think they have to lead with him today. His time for the 1400m was slower than that of ROYAL NAVY, however, who is aiming to make it three straight wins today. He draws barrier 11 which is a bit tricky so he won't get as easy a time in the run as he did last start. RIGHTEOUS MATE the value.
Tip: Gauguin
Race 7
Great race this at Grouip 2 level for the 3YO fillies. GLOBAL GLAMOUR is the Group 1 winner in the field and has the benefit of two runs under her belt compared to most of the other market rivals, but barrier 12 is sure to make things difficult for her again and I think she's probably better over 1400m-1600m. The interesting runner and the one I want to back at $7 is HONESTY PREVAILS who won a Group 3 race on debut before losing her way a touch. Her recent trials, however, suggest she may be back to her best, the latest of which she won by over 10 lengths. From barrier 4 she'll get a great run and we're getting a good enough price to see if she is really ready to deliver. FOXPLAY also resumes from a spell but I just get the feeling she may need the run. She did beat Global Glamour first up last prep over 1200m but it was on a heavy track. She's drifted from $4.50 to $8.00 which does suggest she may not be fully wound up - however that's a great price if you like her. SPRIGHT is the other one to consider. She went from winning a maiden to winning a Group 3 in the space of three runs last prep and looks a very talented filly so it's exciting to see what she can do today. Definitely worth having something on at $6. Honesty Prevails and Spright for me.
Tip: Honesty Prevails EW
Race 8
Sit back and enjoy!
WINX picks herself and I don't think they'll get near her but HARTNELL and DIBAYANI are the two I expect to fill the placings. I saw $7 for the place available in an all-in market early last week for Dibayani and was kicking myself the next day when the final field was announced and those odds disappeared but there's still $3.20 available for the place and I think if you're having a bet in the race that's the way to go.
Tip: Winx / Dibayani place
Race 9
There's two I like here in the form of PEARLS and ZARA BAY. Pearls won a Group 3 over 1300m here first up last prep where she beat Dixie Blossoms and gets in 1kg better at the weights today from that race back in August. She's won two of her three races when first up and tested the likes of First Seal and Tycoon Tara last prep so happy to put her on top. DIXIE BLOSSOMS should go well but has to lump 59kg and do it from barrier 14 so things certainly aren't in her favour here. SHILLELAGH resumes here and has her first start for Chris Waller. I love this horse and think she's immensely talented and while it wouldn't surprise me to see her win, I think she will be better off second up next start over 1400m. ZARA BAY is the obvious value in the race for mine and I'm very keen to be backing her at $9.50. Her first up run was enormous behind Scarlet Rain and down in the weights again here with the good barrier should see her run a big race with the extra 100m.
Tip: Pearls / Zara Bay EW (Best Value)
Race 10
Looks to be plenty of value on offer here but I do think the favourite HANWRITTEN will be tough to beat after a solid first up win. That took his record to 5 wins from 10 starts and he comes into this second up where he is undefeated. Bowman keeps the ride and he looks well placed once again. Outside of him, however, there are three that stick out as legitimate value chances. MERSAULT is better suited here down in grade, second up from a spell and with the 3kg claim. Loves the track and distance and from the good draw he should be very competitive. YOUR WAY has won 5 from 7 in her career and didn't get much luck at all last start, while KNIT 'N' PURL should be peaking here third up from a spell and up to 1200m - she was also luckless last start and with Avdulla on board gets every chance to bounce back at double figure odds.
Tip: Hanwritten
